What a start to the season we have had! Two of the closest finishes in Nascar history happened at Daytona and Phoenix. Two 2nd generation Cup drivers are duking it out for the top rookie honors. Several drivers are off to unexpected good starts. Tony Stewart came back from his injury a month sooner than anyone thought. One driver is constantly ripping his team for how terrible they are. And everybody hates Kasey Kahne. Where to start?
The Super Team
The Joe Gibbs quartet is off to an amazing start in 2016. It started with the Daytona 500 where Denny Hamlin beat Martin Truex Jr. (who drives for JGR affiliated Furniture Row Racing) in the closest Daytona 500 in history. While they didn't when at all over the next month while Nascar went on it's west coast swing, they insured that they had at least one car in the Top 4 of every race. No other team has even come close to that! And upon returning to the east coast where 3 of the next 4 races were short tracks, they rattled off 4 consecutive wins! (2 by Kyle Busch, 2 by Carl Edwards). If you're keeping track at home, that's 5 of the first 9 races that have been won by JGR.
If that's not impressive enough for you, between the 4 drivers they have 15 Top 5's, 21 Top 10's, and have led 1640 laps! We've only run 3049 laps this year. That's over 53% of the laps we've run led by a JGR Toyota. Oh, and I'm not even counting Martin Truex Jr., who has a Top 5, 4 Top 10's, and another 198 laps led. Hendrick Motorsports, Stewart-Haas Racing, and Penske Racing have combined for a total of 4 wins, 23 Top 5's, 45 Top 10's, and 1153 laps led. And keep in mind, that's 10 drivers compared to JGR's 4! I know it's early, but if you're not betting on one of the Joe Gibbs drivers to win the championship, you might be a little crazy.Strong Starts
If the Chase were to start today we'd have 2 drivers making the Chase for the very first time. We also have 2 more drivers who have never made the Chase who are within 12 points of the Top 10.Without a doubt Chase Elliott has been the most impressive driver thus far. Aside from getting involved in wrecks at Daytona and Las Vegas, he has finished in the Top 20 in every other race and finished on the lead lap in 6 of those 7 races. He has 5 Top 10's and picked up back to back career best finishes with a 5th at Texas and a 4th at Bristol. Hard to believe that this 20 year old won't get to victory lane this year and I can't imagine him missing the Chase either. Chase in the Chase....that has a good ring to it!
Austin Dillon has been a very pleasant surprise this year and is currently tied for 11th in points with Chase Elliott. While he hasn't been as flashy as Chase, he stays out of trouble and keeps the car clean for strong finishes. He also has two Top 5's, 5th at Vegas and 4th at Martinsville, and he is currently leading the way for RCR. There is a little bit of concern over the past few weeks, though. After finishing 11th or better in 5 of the first 6 races, he has finished 19th or worse in each of the last 3. I still think Austin will continue to keep the car clean and make the Chase for the first time.
Last year Martin Truex Jr. did such a phenomenal job with Furniture Row Racing and the RCR affiliation. Now that Furniture Row has moved to Toyota, that RCR focus seems to have shifted to A.J. Allmendinger and the JTG Daugherty team. While they aren't as impressive as Truex was last year, with two strong finishes at Fontana (8th) and Martinsville (2nd), they sit 17th in points, just one point behind RCR driver Ryan Newman. Maybe this is the year A.J. gets his first win at an oval.
The Roush teammates of Trevor Bayne and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. have also shown much improvement over last year. Each driver has a Top 5 finish and 5 Top 20's in the first 9 races. Considering how this team has been performing, that's a HUGE improvement. At this point last year, Bayne sat 27th in points and Stenhouse 25th. This year they are 18th and 19th, respectively, with Bayne being just 9 points out of 16th and Stenhouse just 12 back. With both drivers being pretty good restrictor plate racers and both of them have another race coming up at their best tracks (Kentucky for Bayne and Bristol for Stenhouse), we might just see a major underdog in this year's Chase Field.Ryan Blaney has shown flashes of brilliance this year. He has a couple of Top 10's at Vegas (6th) and Phoenix (10th) and hung around the Top 10 most of the race at Bristol before finishing 11th. What's keeping Blaney down (he's 20th in points) is the 4 finishes of 25th or worse. Fact is Ryan has been running well in most races, either in or near the Top 10, but late in the race he falls off and doesn't get the finish he deserves. Perhaps this has to do with it being the first time the Wood Brothers have competed full-time since 2007. This team will get on their feet the 2nd half of the season. My concern there is that their inconsistency early on may keep them from making the Chase. Unless, of course, Blaney wins a race, which I do believe is fully possible.
In the Hot Seat
Kasey Kahne could really be in trouble. I know he's currently 14th in points right now and could be poised to make the Chase this year after missing the Chase last year, but consider this, Kasey was 6th in points at this time last year. When Nascar went back to Daytona in July of 2015 that started Kahne's monumental collapse of 11 straight races without a Top 10, 6 of those were outside the Top 20 and 3 outside the Top 30. Last week at Richmond Kasey picked up his first Top 5 finish since Kansas last October, that's 13 races without a Top 5. Completely unacceptable for this caliber of a team. Kahne has just 2 Top 5's and 7 Top 10's in his last 29 starts. Jimmie Johnson, his teammate, has 5 Top 5's and 6 Top 10's in just 9 races this year! Heck, Dale Jr. has 4 Top 5's and 5 Top 10's and Chase Elliott has 2 Top 5's and 5 Top 10's! Here's another factor, Stewart-Haas Racing is switching from Chevy to Ford next year. SHR's top driver, Kevin Harvick, has only driven Chevy's in his Cup career and owns multiple Chevy dealerships. Now even though Harvick has indicated he is not planning on leaving SHR, it is widely speculated that he will be or is looking for another Chevy team. Put yourself in Rick Hendrick's shoes. Would you give up Kasey Kahne to snag Kevin Harvick? I know I would. And if that doesn't end up working out, consider this, Kyle Larson's contract with Chip Ganassi Racing ends at the end of 2017. That is one heck of a talented driver in mid-tier equipment. Imagine what he could do in a Hendrick car!
At 46 years old, Greg Biffle is the oldest competitor in Nascar's top division. While the subject has come up with last year's retirment of Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart announcing he will retire after this season, Greg consistently denies that he is thinking about it. You have to wonder if that decision may be made for him, though. Sure, the Roush-Fenway organization is nothing compared to what it used to be when Biffle was competing for championships, you have to take note at what his former teammates have done. Kurt Busch moved on, not by his choice, and is still finding success at SHR, and Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards both jumped ship before the Roush boat sank and are two of the top drivers in the sport at JGR. But all the while, Biffle elected to stay at Roush....or did he? Could it be that Biffle explored other options and nobody was interested. I doubt if we'll ever know that for sure. While Greg's young teammates are showing good improvement compared to last year, he himself continues to slide backwards. At this point last year he was 21st in points with one Top 10 and an average finish of 21.67. This year he is 23rd in points without a Top 10 and an average finish of 22.4. There are also a pair of young talented drivers waiting in the wings, Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace. My guess is that Jack will have a talk with Greg and let him go after this year and their probably won't be a lot of interest for a 47 year old driver who currently hasn't had a Top 10 in his last 17 starts.
How about Clint Bowyer? For weeks he has been complaining of the poor performance of HScott Motorsports and it has been pretty terrible. Clint, who made the Chase last year with the now defunct Michael Waltrip Racing, is in a waiting period until he takes over for Tony Stewart next year. SHR was looking for another Chevy team that Clint could drive for and HScott stepped up. Clint even brought sponsors 5 Hour Energy and Peak Antifreeze with him. But with just one Top 10 and an average finish of 27th (would be 29th without that 8th place finish at Bristol) he sits 29th in points. When Tony injured his back at the start of the season Clint was immediately dismissed as a replacement driver due to his sponsorship commitments this year. Well, what if he and his sponsors could go to another team? With SHR moving to Fords next year it would make sense for Clint to move to a Ford team to finish off the year. Although it is highly unlikely and this is purely speculation, you can't deny that Clint Bowyer is a massive upgrade from Brian Scott.
What to Watch For
I know that we haven't seen Joey Logano, Dale Earnhardt Jr., or Matt Kenseth go to victory lane yet this year, but don't expect that trend to continue. All of them will pick up wins before heading into the Chase and Dale Jr. and Kenseth will pick up multiple wins before we reach the halfway point of the season.
Look for JGR to continue their dominance. I fully expect them to win 5 more races in the next 9 events.
Before the season started I said that Ryan Blaney, Paul Menard, and Clint Bowyer would make the Chase, but now I am retracting that. Blaney is still up in the air, but I'm not so sure he is going to get that win now. Clint Bowyer is definitely not making the Chase and Paul Menard has dug himself into a pretty good hole. I'm saying that Chase Elliott, Kasey Kahne, and Austin Dillon are taking those spots.
Now that we have gotten a good look at the drivers' performances in 2016, I am now picking Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, and Martin Truex Jr. as my final four and my championship pick is.......
Yep, I'm sticking with Kevin Harvick.
I'll be back after Kentucky for the Mid-Season Report. Stay tuned. Until then, Happy Racin' Y'all!
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