We're halfway through the 2014 season. Hard to believe, I know. Even harder to believe is that just 2 months ago we were wondering if Jimmie Johnson would even win a race this year. Ha! Guess we were wrong about that as he's won 3 of the last 9 races.
Big Winners
Obviously we just witnessed the biggest winner of the last 9 races and probably the season. With Aric Almirola's victory at Daytona last week he has essentially locked himself into the Chase. This is what we were looking for when they announced the new Chase format, some sort of wild card winning a race and getting in. Almirola would not have been my guess (I was thinking more along the lines of David Ragan, Marcos Ambrose, or AJ Allmendinger), but it is an absolute feel good story, not just for the driver, but for the team as well. In the last 15 years Petty has only had 2 drivers finish in the top 16 in points, Kasey Kahne 10th in 2009 and Allmendinger 15th in 2011. This year they will (most likely) have Almirola in the top 16 and possibly Marcos Ambrose as well. With Watkins Glen coming up on the schedule next month, Ambrose has an excellent shot to join his teammate in the Chase. Wouldn't that be something?
The other big winner was at the other superspeedway, Denny Hamlin winning at Talladega. Let's face it, Denny hasn't been the same since his back injury last year. Sure he has 2 wins since (the other at Homestead last fall), but other than that he's been mediocre to terrible. In 18 races this year he only has 6 top 10's and sits 14th in points. Oh, and not to mention that 3 of his last 4 races he's finished 26th or worse. If he didn't have that win to fall back on, I don't know if he would make the Chase.
Living on the Edge
There are several drivers who are living on the edge of making the Chase, but the most surprising of those are Clint Bowyer and Kasey Kahne. In fact, 2 months ago I picked Clint to win the championship. Although he has 5 top 10's and has moved from 20th to 12th in points in the last 9 races, Bowyer has not been running near the front and has led just 6 laps. I had expected Bowyer to have won a race by this point in the season, but he hasn't come close. Currently where he sits in points he has a 19 point buffer over Greg Biffle that has him in the show, but if we get a few more winners, he could be on the bubble of making the Chase.
As for Kahne, he also has improved with 5 top 10's and moving from 22nd to 17th in points, but he, like Boywer, has not really run up front and has only led 23 laps in the last 9 races. Kasey sits just 12 points behind Austin Dillon (currently in the bubble spot) and needs to be more consistent if he wants to make the Chase, or at least pick up a win.
Who's In and Who's Out?
With 11 winners in 18 races that basically means we have 5 spots left to fill out. Currently those 5 drivers are Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Paul Menard, Bowyer, and Dillon. That's all 3 RCR cars currently in the mix. RCR hasn't put 3 cars in the Chase since 2010, that would be huge, but it probably won't happen. If we continue the current trend of a new winner every 1.6 races, we're looking at 5 more winners this year, putting us at 16 winners after 26 races....that ain't gonna happen either. I'm thinking we might 1, maybe 2 more winners this season. Tony Stewart has been running pretty well lately, although he hasn't had the finishes to show it. I'd be willing to bet he'll pick up a win before the Chase starts and Ambrose and Allmendinger have a great shot of pulling off the win at the Glen, but at this point I'm saying Tony will be the only other winner in the "regular season". So that would put 4 cars in on points. Kenseth I think is in great shape whether he wins a race or not. Ryan Newman has been pretty consistent and should be in good shape. I think Greg Biffle will sneak in there. And the final spot? I'm giving it to my favorite dark horse, Paul Menard. Sorry Clint and Kasey, but you guys really need to step it up if you want to make the Chase.Prediction Corner
First 4 eliminated: Kurt Busch, Almirola, Newman, and Biffle.
Next 4 eliminated: Stewart, Hamlin, Keselowski, and Kenseth.
Last 4 eliminated: Edwards, Menard, Gordon, and Earnhardt Jr.
Final 4: Logano, Johnson, Kyle Busch, Harvick.
Champion?.................................................
Kyle Busch
That's all for the Halftime Report. We'll meet again after Richmond to preview the Chase and discuss how completely wrong my predictions were. Until then....Happy Racin'!
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