I haven't had much time to post on this blog as of late and I wasn't sure if I would post a playoff preview this year, but then my buddy Noah Heun sent me his playoff predictions and it inspired me to do the same. So below is my race by race breakdown including best and worst average finishes (among the drivers I believe will still be in contention), who's hot and who's not, prediction on who will win the race, and my predictions for who will be eliminated in each round. Read 'em and weep, boys (and girls)!
Las Vegas
Richmond
Charlotte Roval
Dover
Talladega
Kansas
Martinsville
Texas
Phoenix
Until next time, Happy Racin' Y'all!
Las Vegas
Best Avg. Finish- Joey Logano, 8.5
Worst Avg. Finish- William Byron, 26.7
Who's Hot!:
- Joey Logano- 7 straight Top 10's, 5 of those Top 5's. Won here in the spring.
- Martin Truex Jr.- 4 straight Top 10's. 4 Top 5's in last 6 races, including a win.
- Kyle Busch- 3 straight finishes of 7th or better.
- Brad Keselowski- 3 career wins. Won this race last year. 8 straight finishes of 7th or better.
Who's Not:
- William Byron- Best finish of 16th in 3 career starts.
- Chase Elliott- 3 DNF's in 5 career starts.
- Erik Jones- Only 1 Top 10 in 4 career starts. Finished last in this race last year.
- Kevin Harvick- 2 DNF's in last 4 starts.
Winner: Brad Keselowski
Richmond
Best Avg. Finish- Kyle Busch, 7.0
Worst Avg. Finish- Ryan Blaney, 26.7
Who's Hot!:
- Kyle Busch- Winner of 2 of the last 4. 4 straight Top 10's.
- Kevin Harvick- 6 Top 5's in last 7 races.
- Clint Bowyer- 3 straight Top 10's. Finished 3rd in the spring.
- Martin Truex Jr.- Winner here in the spring. Back to back Top 5's.
Who's Not:
- Ryan Blaney- Hasn't finished better than 18th in 7 career starts.
- Kurt Busch- No Top 10's in last 3 starts.
- William Byron- Best finish of 12th in 3 career starts.
- Kyle Larson- Crashed and finished 37th in the spring.
Winner: Martin Truex Jr.
Charlotte Roval
Best Avg. Finish- Ryan Blaney, 1.0
Worst Avg. Finish- William Byron, 34.0
Who's Hot!:
- Kurt Busch- 8 Top 10's in last 10 road course races. No finishes worse than 13th.
- Kevin Harvick- 5 straight Top 10's on road courses.
- Chase Elliott- Winner of 2 of the last 4 road course races.
- Clint Bowyer- 4 Top 5's in last 7 road course starts.
Who's Not:
- William Byron- Finished 34th here last year. Only 2 Top 20 finishes in 5 road course starts.
- Kyle Larson- Finished 25th in this race last year. Only 3 Top 10's in 10 road course starts.
- Brad Keselowski- Finished 31st here last year. Only 1 Top 10 in last 6 road course starts.
- Erik Jones- Finished 30th in this race last year.
Winner: Clint Bowyer
1st Round Eliminations: William Byron, Ryan Newman, Kyle Larson, & Erik Jones
Dover
Best Avg. Finish- Chase Elliott, 4.4
Worst Avg. Finish- Alex Bowman, 25.6
Who's Hot!:
- Chase Elliott- Won this race last year. 6 Top 5's in 7 starts.
- Joey Logano- Back to back Top 10's.
- Kevin Harvick- 3 straight finishes of 6th or better.
Who's Not:
- Ryan Blaney- Only 1 Top 10 in last 6 starts.
- Denny Hamlin- 2 finishes outside the Top 20 in last 4 races.
- Clint Bowyer- Crashed and finished 35th in this race last year.
Winner: Chase Elliott
Talladega
Best Avg. Finish- Chase Elliott, 14.0
Worst Avg. Finish- Alex Bowman, 24.9
Who's Hot!:
- Kurt Busch- 6 Top 10's in last 8 races.
- Aric Almirola- Won this race last year. 6 straight Top 10's.
- Joey Logano- 4 straight Top 5's. Winner of 3 of the last 8.
Who's Not:
- Martin Truex Jr.- No Top 10's since 2015. 4 DNF's in last 6 races.
- Ryan Blaney- No Top 10's since 2016. 2 DNF's in last 5 races.
- Kevin Harvick- Finished 20th or worse in 4 of the last 5 races with 2 DNF's.
Winner: Ryan Preece
Kansas
Best Avg. Finish- Kevin Harvick, 9.8
Worst Avg. Finish- Alex Bowman, 22.1
Who's Hot!:
- Brad Keselowski- Won here in the spring. Back to back Top 10's.
- Chase Elliott- Won this race last year. 3 Top 5's in last 4 races.
- Alex Bowman- Runner up in the spring. 3 Top 10's in last 4 starts.
Who's Not:
- Kyle Busch- Finished 3 laps down in 30th in the spring.
- Denny Hamlin- Back to back finishes outside the Top 10. Only 2 Top 10's in last 7 starts.
- Ryan Blaney- Finished outside Top 30 in 2 of the last 3 races.
Winner: Chase Elliott
2nd Round Eliminations: Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick
Martinsville
Best Avg. Finish- Denny Hamlin, 9.6
Worst Avg. Finish- Aric Almirola, 20.9
Who's Hot!:
- Brad Keselowski- Winner of 2 of the last 5. 7 straight Top 10's. 7 Top 5's in last 9 races.
- Kyle Busch- 8 straight Top 5's, including 2 wins.
Who's Not:
- Aric Almirola- Just 1 Top 10 in last 10 races.
- Kurt Busch- Just 1 Top 10 in last 10 races.
Winner: Brad Keselowski
Texas
Best Avg. Finish- Chase Elliott, 8.0
Worst Avg. Finish- Aric Almirola, 19.1
Who's Hot!:
- Kurt Busch- 5 straight Top 10's, 7 in last 8 races.
- Aric Almirola- Back to back Top 10's.
Who's Not:
- Brad Keselowski- 3 straight finishes outside the Top 10.
- Denny Hamlin- Finished 25th or worse in 3 of the last 5 races.
Winner: Erik Jones
Phoenix
Best Avg. Finish- Chase Elliott, 10.1
Worst Avg. Finish- Martin Truex Jr., 15.9
Who's Hot!:
- Kyle Busch- Back to back wins. 8 straight finishes of 7th or better.
- Aric Almirola- Back to back Top 5's. 4 straight Top 10's.
Who's Not:
- Joey Logano- Finished outside the Top 10 in 4 of last 5 races. 2 DNF's.
- Kurt Busch- 3 finishes outside the Top 20 in last 5 races.
Winner: Kyle Busch
3rd Round Eliminations: Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola, Joey Logano, & Chase Elliott.
Homestead
Best Avg. Finish- Denny Hamlin, 10.6
Worst Avg. Finish- Kyle Busch, 17.4
Final Four:
- Denny Hamlin- 2 career wins. 5 Top 10's in last 6 starts.
- Martin Truex Jr.- Top 2 finishes in each of last 2 years.
- Brad Keselowski- Back to back Top 10's. 5 in last 6 races.
- Kyle Busch- 4 straight finishes of 6th or better.
Champ: Sticking to my guns on this one. Martin Truex Jr. wins his 2nd championship!
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