2017 Playoff Preview

Well it’s finally playoff time! The field is set and we will now get to see the new playoff point format play out. Looking back at my preseason predictions I got 13 of the 16 drivers correct. Ok, so I totally whiffed on Dale Jr., Suarez was a shot in the dark that didn’t pan out, but who would’ve ever predicted Joey Logano would miss the playoffs?!?!? And as for not guessing Kasey Kahne and Ryan Blaney I can say that I did have them listed as my potential spoilers. But again, who would’ve ever predicted that Ricky Stenhouse would win not just once, but twice?!?!?

But before we start talking about the playoffs themselves, it seems that every time I get ready to make a new post there is a breaking new development in the Silly Season. For example, right before I did my first quarter review, Dale Earnhardt Jr. announced his retirement. And right before I did my mid-season review, Joe Gibbs Racing announced that Matt Kenseth was out and Erik Jones was in. This week more pieces began to shift which will set us up for a whirlwind of changes over the next few months. So let’s recap what we know so far.

• Chase Elliott will move from the 24 to the 9 (formerly the 5) as Kasey Kahne is now officially out at Hendrick Motorsports.
• William Byron will drive the 24, replacing Kasey Kahne.
• Alex Bowman will replace Dale Earnhardt Jr. behind the wheel of the 88.
• Danica Patrick will not be returning to SHR in 2018.
• Stewart-Haas Racing did not pick up their option for Kurt Busch for 2018, however, they may still work out a new deal to keep him with the team.
• Ryan Blaney will move from the Wood Brothers to the 12 car, a 3^rd Penske Team.
• Paul Menard will leave RCR and take the Menards sponsorship to the 21 Wood Brothers team, replacing Blaney.
• Ty Dillon will stay with Germain Racing in the 13 and not move to the RCR 27.
• Erik Jones will replace Matt Kenseth in the 20 at JGR.
• Aric Almirola will not return to Richard Petty Motorpsorts in 2018.
• Furniture Row Racing will shut down operations on the 77 car and have already sold the charter.

Now that we have what we “know” out of the way, there is still a lot of speculation as to who will move where. Earlier this week Smithfield announced that it will take its sponsorship to Stewart-Haas Racing in 2018, ending a 5 year partnership with Richard Petty Motorsports. In the announcement it was said that SHR would announce which driver will be “added” to the 2018 driver lineup at a later date. Later that day it was announced that Danica Patrick would be leaving the team, leading most to believe that Smithfield will be the sponsor of the 10 car next year. Here’s where things get interesting…Smithfield came to Richard Petty Motorsports with Aric Almirola back in 2012. They and RPM had a hand shake deal to return in 2018, but when Petty suggested replacing Almirola with Bubba Wallace, that was the apparent straw that broke the camel’s back and Smithfield pulled out. Rumors swirled that they, and Almirola would go to SHR. Smithfield has now done so, and with Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne both saying that they will not be driving the 10 car next year, it is looking more likely that Almirola will be their man.

As for the 43 car, losing the Smithfield sponsorship certainly hurts them and might put the team’s future in jeopardy. But NASCAR’s oldest team (the Petty family has fielded at least 1 team since NASCAR’s inception in 1949) is not going away without a fight and the rumors suggest that RPM will do whatever it takes to field the car with Bubba Wallace at the helm. Hopefully they will find a sponsor to keep the famed 43 on the track.

Aside from Matt Kenseth stating earlier this week that he will not be driving the 10 car, we haven’t heard much about where he will land next year, if he continues to drive at all, but his name is almost always the first name associated with each opening ride.

Kasey Kahne on the other hand made some enlightening comments just the other day. He stated that he did reach out to SHR about the 10 car, but they had their eyes elsewhere (another reason to believe it will be Almirola). He has also reached out to RCR about the vacancy of the 27 car, but they will only take a driver that brings sponsorship along with them. The biggest rumor, and Kasey basically confirmed it as a possibility, is that he would go to the Leavine Family Racing 95 car and Michael McDowell would move to the 34 Front Row Motorsports and replace Landon Cassill. Kahne mentioned that he didn’t want to be a seat filler, though, and that if he can’t find a ride in which he feels he could run consistently in the Top 15, then he may look into doing a mixed schedule of sprint cars, Indy Car, and NASCAR.

Then we have Danica Patrick. The sad truth is that it appears her NASCAR days are done, and quite possibly her racing days altogether. Although, she did come out and say that even though she won't be racing for SHR, she isn't retiring. So perhaps she does have something in the works

It will be an interesting next few months for sure as the rest of the 2018 puzzle comes together. 

Playoff Outlook

If you've followed me for any length of time you've probably noticed that I'm all about statistical analysis. So I've developed a fool-proof way (not really) to predict exactly what will happen in the playoffs. I mean, my predictions will be so accurate that you probably won't even have to watch the races! Ok, maybe it's not 100% fool proof, but I did get 81% of the playoff field correct, so that has to count for something. By that logic my formula only has a 19% margin of error....yeah, I'm sticking with that.

Below I have every driver in the playoff field and my prediction on what will be their best race, worst race, when they'll get eliminated (and why), and their final points position.

Ryan Blaney

Best Race: Kansas. Blaney won the pole and nearly won the race at Kansas earlier this year. He ended up finishing 4th, which was his 2nd Top 5 in 5 Kansas starts.

Worst Race: Dover. His average finish at Dover is 26th in 3 races. His best finish is 8th, but his other 2 Dover finishes were 38th and 32nd.

Round Eliminated: 1st. Ryan has absolutely no momentum coming into the playoffs. His average finish over the last 10 races is 19th with only 3 Top 10's and only 2 Top 10's in the last 8 races.

Final Points Position: 16th

Kasey Kahne

Best Race: Kansas. The spring Kansas race this year was one of the 9 races that Kahne finished in the Top 15 this year and he has finished inside the Top 10 in each of the last 2 fall Kansas races.

Worst Race: Homestead. The last time he finished in the Top 10 at Homestead was in 2011 and in 13 career starts he only has 3 Top 10's. Good thing going for him is that he won't make it to the Final Four, so he doesn't have to worry about running well there.

Round Eliminated: 2nd. Surprisingly I believe that Kasey can run well enough to get through the first round. A couple of Top 15's ought to do the trick.

Final Points Position: 15th

Austin Dillon

Best Race: Dover. Austin finished 8th in this race last year and had a 13th place finish at Dover in the spring.

Worst Race: Texas. In 9 Texas starts Dillon has never finished inside the Top 10 and only has 3 Top 20's. 

Round Eliminated: 1st. He finished 21st in the regular season and wouldn't be in the playoffs if it weren't for an incredible fuel mileage play at Charlotte. Austin does have 2 Top 10's in the last 4 races going for him, though, but that won't be enough to get him out of the first round.

Final Points Position: 14th.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Best Race: Talladega. Ricky has won the last two restrictor plate races and also finished 5th at Talladega last fall. 

Worst Race: Dover. Stenhouse finished last at Dover in the and only has 1 Top 10 in 10 starts at the track.

Round Eliminated: 1st. His finishes in the last race at each of the first round tracks is 25th, 14th, & 39th. That's not going to cut it, but if he can somehow squeak through the first round (he does have more playoff points than have the playoff field) then there is a decent chance he could win at 'Dega and slip into the 3rd round.

Final Points Position: 13th.

Jamie McMurray

Best Race: Talladega. He has won twice at Talladega in the past and finished 2nd there in the spring.

Worst Race: Martinsville. Jamie finished last at Martinsville in the spring and has and average finish of 23rd in his last 3 races there. 

Round Eliminated: 1st. The fact that McMurray didn't win a race or a stage at any point during the season has him starting the playoffs in last place despite finish the regular season 8th in points. It'll be close, but I think the lack of playoff points will prevent Jamie from advancing to round 2. 

Final Points Position: 12th

Ryan Newman

Best Race: Charlotte. While Newman has never won at Charlotte he does have 3 straight Top 10's there and 7 Top 10's in the last 9 races. 

Worst Race: Kansas. Kansas is quite the opposite for Newman. He did pick up a win there in 2003, but has failed to finish in the Top 10 in 3 of the last 4 races there and finished last in the spring.

Round Eliminated: 2nd. Ryan Newman would not have made the playoffs had he not gambled on fuel to win at Phoenix. While he's consistent enough to advance to Round 2, he's not consistently good enough to get to Round 3.

Final Points Position: 11th

Chase Elliott

Best Race: Dover. In 3 Dover starts Elliott's worst finish is 5th. Hard to argue with that.

Worst Race: Charlotte. His last 2 starts at Charlotte have resulted in finishes of 38th and 33rd. That being said, he did lead 103 laps in this race last year before crashing out. 

Round Eliminated: 2nd. If you look at Chase's 4 worst tracks based on average finish, 2 of them are in Round 2 (Charlotte 24.2. Kansas 23).

Final Points Position: 10th

Brad Keselowski

Best Race: Martinsville. Keselowski's last 5 finishes at Martinsville are 1st, 2nd, 5th, 32nd, & 2nd. In the last 11 races there he has 8 Top 10's. The other 3 finishes are 31st or worse. So it's pretty much an all or nothing track for him.

Worst Race: Charlotte. He actually has a pretty good history at Charlotte with a win in 2013, but he hasn't really come close to winning there since and he crashed there in the spring.

Round Eliminated: 2nd. Brad comes into the playoffs in 4th place and is one of the favorites to make the Final Four, but he has failed to finish in at least one race at each of the tracks in Round 2 in the last year. Too bad for Brad that they couldn't spread those tracks out on the schedule.

Final Points Position: 9th

Kurt Busch

Best Race: Talladega. Kurt has always been great at restrictor plate tracks, but until his Daytona 500 win earlier this year, had never won a points race at one. He is still winless at Talladega, but he has 4 straight Top 10's there and 5 in the last 6 races. That is not an easy feat on a superspeedway.

Worst Race: Martinsville. Busch has 2 career wins at Martinsville, but in 34 career starts only has 5 Top 10's. Since his last Martinsville win in the spring of 2014 his best finish 13th and he's finished 34th or worse 3 times.

Round Eliminated: 3rd. He has some strong tracks in the first half of the playoffs, but the same cannot be said for the second half.

Final Points Position: 8th

Jimmie Johnson

Best Race: Dover. 11. Jimmie Johnson has won at Dover 11 times, including this past spring. It's not just his best track in the playoffs, it's his best track period.

Worst Race: Phoenix. Johnson actually has 20 Top 10's in 28 Phoenix starts, but only 2 in the last 6. Just shows how dominant he has been over the years when his worst track is where he's ONLY finished in the Top 10 71% of the time.

Round Eliminated: 3rd. When 3 drivers have 12+ more playoff points than you, you can't afford to have any bad races in Round 3. Unfortunately for him, Phoenix is in Round 3.

Final Points Position: 7th

Denny Hamlin

Best Race: Chicago. He won here in 2015 and has 3 straight finishes of 6th or better. Plus he finished in the Top 5 in each of the last 2 races on mile and a half tracks.

Worst Race: Kansas. Denny has finished 15th or worse in 6 of the last 8 races at Kansas. His average finish in the last 5 Kansas races is 23.7.

Round Eliminated: 3rd. Hamlin has even fewer playoff points than Jimmie Johnson and Texas hasn't been very friendly to him lately, nor has Martinsville. He finished 30th at Martinsville earlier this year and 25th at Texas. Both of those tracks are in Round 3.

Final Points Position: 6th

Matt Kenseth

Best Race: New Hampshire. Matt Kenseth's last 9 finishes at New Hampshire.... 4th, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 6th, 21st 4th, 1st, 9th. Not bad for an old guy.

Worst Race: Talladega. Kenseth has 5 straight finishes of 23rd or worse at Talladega and 6 in the last 7 races. Not good, no matter what your age.

Round Eliminated: 3rd. He actually has some good momentum coming into the playoffs despite not having a win. In the last 8 races he has 4 Top 5's, 6 Top 10's, and looked like a serious contender to win at Richmond last week before that stupid ambulance got in the way. While I believe Matt can overcome a poor race at Talladega, he has struggled at Phoenix as of late as well and that will be his demise.

Final Points Position: 5th

The Final Four

Kevin Harvick

Best Race: Homestead. Harvick has finished in the Top 3 at Homestead for 3 straight years and 7 times in 16 starts.

Worst Race: Chicago. Kevin Harvick won his first 2 starts at Chicago, but has finished 20th and 42nd in his last 2 starts. But trust me, he can overcome a bad first race in the playoffs.

Final Points Position: 4th. Why would I say he'll finish 4th when I just said Homestead will be his best race? Because Kevin Harvick hasn't been that great this year. His only win was on a road course and he only had 2 Top 5's in the 6 mile and a half races this year.

Kyle Busch

Best Race: Phoenix. 4 straight Top 5's at Phoenix might just make Kyle Busch the man to beat when we go back there.

Worst Race: Talladega. I know, he has 2 Top 3 finishes in the last 3 races at Talladega, but the track is unpredictable and I think it's the only one of the 10 races that he won't finish in the Top 10.

Final Points Position: 3rd. Kyle Busch has been the 3rd best driver all year, so it makes sense that he would finish 3rd in points.

Kyle Larson

Best Race: Phoenix. Last fall at Phoenix, Larson finished 3rd. This spring at Phoenix, Larson finished 2nd. This fall at Phoenix, Larson finished......

Worst Race: Charlotte. Kyle only has 2 Top 10 finishes in 8 Charlotte starts. One of those, however, was a 5th last fall.

Final Points Position: 2nd. Kyle Larson has been the 2nd best driver all year so it makes sense that he would finish 2nd in points.

The Champ

Martin Truex Jr.

Best Race: Dover. Yes, even though I think Truex will win it all at Homestead, Dover will be his best race. He won that race last year, has back to back Top 5's there, and has 6 Top 10's in the last 7 races. Besides, it's essentially his home track.

Worst Race: Talladega. Martin isn't very good at Talladega. He finished 35th there in the spring and 40th last fall. But when you have 20 more playoff points than the next guy, you pretty much get a mulligan in each round.

Final Points Position: 1st. The championship race takes place at Homestead, a track that Truex has never won on (but he has finished 2nd) and has 3 straight finishes of 12th or worse. Homestead is a mile and a half in length. Here are Martin Truex Jr.'s finishes on mile and a half tracks this year.... 8th, 1st, 8th, 1st, 3rd, & 1st..... Tell me I'm wrong.

Martin Truex Jr. will show the world that nice guys really can come in first. Something Kyle Busch will be very surprised to learn.

I'll be back at the end of the year where we'll recap the best moments of the 2017 season. Until then....Happy Racin' Y'all!