2017 Mid-Season Review

Well, we are halfway through another season and while we haven't seen as many close finishes as we did last year, there have still been plenty of twists and turns this season that have made it fun and unpredictable....

The Tale of Two Drivers

Two drivers. Two Two-Car Teams. Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson have both had to overcome a lot of adversity over the years and now have both proved their worth as they lead the points standings and have outperformed the rest of the field so far in 2017. 

Martin Truex Sr. was a veteran of the Busch North Series, racing in 135 races over 9 seasons in the 1990's and picking up just one win at Loudon in 1994. He essentially gave up his seat in 2000 so that his son could take over. Truex Jr. had a rough start to the season, but in his 8th career start, ironically at Loudon, he picked up his first career win in the Busch North Series. He went on to win 5 races in 4 years and that landed him a ride with Dale Earnhardt Inc. in what we now call the Xfinity Series. Martin was an instant success winning 6 races and the championship in each of his first 2 seasons, including another win at Loudon. His stardom was rising and he moved up to the Cup Series in 2006. 

Martin struggled in his rookie season with just 2 Top 5's and 5 Top 10's, but both Top 5's and 3 of the Top 10's came in the final 8 races of the season. He began to heat up midway through his 2nd season, picking up his first career win at Dover, which started a stretch of 4 Top 3 finishes in a span of 5 races. He finished off that year with 3 consecutive Top 10's as well. Just as things were looking up for Truex, Dale Earnhardt Jr. left the team and DEI began its slow demise. After 2 more years with the team and coming off his worst season in the Cup Series in 2009, Martin left Earnhardt and went to drive for Michael Waltrip Racing. It was a slow start at MWR, but in 2012 he set a career high with 19 Top 10's and tied career highs of 7 Top 5's and an 11th place finish in the standings. In June of 2013 Truex ended a 6 year winless drought by winning at Sonoma and things looked to be going his way yet again, but controversy with the team at the end of the year caused NAPA to pull their sponsorship and caused him to lose his ride with MWR. 

Truex then found a new home with Furniture Row Racing who was coming off their best season with Kurt Busch driving for them. There was quite a bit of pressure for Martin to live up to Kurt's previous year performance and he wound up having his worst season to date with a solitary Top 5 (a career low) and finished 24th in points (also a career low). Things took a turn for the better in 2015, however, and Truex won at Pocono, which was only the 2nd win in the team's history. In 2016 FRR switched manufacturers to Toyota and made a technical alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing and Truex has now become one of the top drivers in the sport. With 3 wins, 4 Top 5's, and no finishes worse than 8th place on the 6 mile and a half races this year, Martin has become the king of those track types. While Truex and the team don't necessarily dislike that title, they are out to prove that they can win at other track types, too, and are dead set on getting the victory this week when we head to the place where the Truex legacy all started....Loudon.

Kyle Larson's background is quite different. He didn't have the family history in racing, as Truex did. He began karting at the age of 7 and moved to open wheel cars on dirt tracks as a teenager. Kyle was actually aspiring to be an Indy Car driver, but was able to get in with NASCAR's Drive for Diversity program (Kyle is part Japanese) and was signed by Earnhardt Ganassi Racing (formerly DEI) in 2012 and competed in the K&N Pro Series East (formerly the Busch North Series) for Rev Racing, a team owned by former DEI president Max Siegel. Larson won 2 races and had 8 Top 5's in 14 races which propelled him to win the championship in his rookie season. His success there landed him a ride with Turner Scott Motorsports in the Nationwide Series (Now Xfinity). Despite not winning a race in his rookie season, Kyle still impressed people with 9 Top 5's and 17 Top 10's. Larson's aspirations to get a Cup ride, though, were not going well as most teams would only hire him if he could bring a sponsor with him, and that, he didn't have. Chip Ganassi had a sponsor in Target, though, and wasn't afraid to take a chance on the kid after the departure of Juan Pablo Montoya. 

Many in the NASCAR community didn't believe Larson was ready for Cup and believed it was a mistake, but when he challenged Kyle Busch at Fontana and finished in 2nd after nearly pulling off the win, he won people over. Larson's had his sophomore slump and the doubt for many returned. It wasn't really until midway into last season that Kyle began to hit his stride and he picked up his first career victory at Michigan and almost won the season finale at Homestead as well. Kyle has 2 more wins this year at Fontana and Michigan. While Truex might be considered the king of the mile and halfs, Larson has become the king of the 2 mile tracks. All 3 of his wins thus far have been at 2 mile tracks and those were the last 3 races that have been run at 2 mile tracks. So when we head back to Michigan next month you better keep an eye on the 42 car. 

These 2 drivers are at the top of their game right now and are without a doubt the drivers to beat this season. As of right now Truex has the slight upper hand with 3 wins to Larson's 2, 12 Top 10's to Larson's 11, 28 Playoff Points to Larson's 13, and currently a 34 point advantage in the standings (but that is only due to the 35 point penalty Larson was hit with earlier this week). Larson, however, does have the advantage in Top 5's with 8 to Truex's 6. 

Slumps

It's hard to ignore the glaring fact that Joe Gibbs Racing has a total of zero wins so far this season. Yes, the team that won 1/3 of last year's races does not yet have a victory this season. Kyle Busch has definitely been the bright spot for the team this season. He currently sits 3rd in points with 2 runner up finishes. He's led laps in all but 5 races and the only driver to lead more laps than Busch this year is Martin Truex Jr.. The concern for Busch is that when he gets frustrated he tends to overdrive the car and make critical mistakes. The longer he goes without winning, the more frustrated he will become. I'm sure Mr. Gibbs has been working double time to try to tame the fire.

Denny Hamlin has seemed invisible this year. He isn't running bad, but he's not really running up front. He does have 2 Stage wins this year and I was surprised to find out that he has finished 4th in 3 of the last 4 races. I was also surprised to see that Denny has only led 178 laps so far this year, but then I looked back and saw that at this point last year he had only led 168 laps. So things might not be so bad for Denny as we thought.

Matt Kenseth is another story. He started off the year ok, but in the last 10 races he only has 1 Top 5 and 2 Top 10's. He had a good run going last week at Kentucky, but a last lap wreck took him out of the Top 10. Matt currently sits on the playoff bubble and is in major jeopardy of not making the playoffs. Add on top of that the announcement last weekend that he would not be returning to JGR next season, Kenseth better get things turned around quick if he plans on continuing to race next season.

Since Joey Logano's encumbered win at Richmond Team Penske has really taken a dive as well. For Logano, himself, he's had just 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10's, and 3 Top 20's in those 9 races, leaving him currently out of the playoff picture and battling with drivers like Kenseth for what could potentially be the final playoff spot. His teammate, Brad Keselowski, has the luxury of being locked into the playoffs with 2 victories, but he has been struggling as well, crashing out of 4 of the last 7 races. Even Ryan Blaney in their satellite team has struggled. Yes, he won at Pocono and nearly won at Kansas, but he has 5 finishes outside the Top 20 in those 9 races as well.

Feels Like the First Time

Just when you think you have it figured out how the season is going to play out someone has to go and mix everything up. In this case it was 3 someones.

In what was probably the most intriguing month and a half of the season we saw 3 first time winners in a span of just 5 races. It all started when Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won at Talladega in his 158th career start. It was a long time coming for the former Xfinity Series champion, but it was well worth the wait. And the first person to greet him in victory lane was his girlfriend and fellow competitor Danica Patrick, who had crashed out earlier in the race.

Just 3 weeks later Austin Dillon gambled on fuel mileage in the Coke 600 and won for the first time in his 132nd career start. It was the 2nd win of the year for Richard Childress Racing and the first time the #3 car had seen victory lane in 17 years. Austin's grandfather, Richard Childress, was one of the first to greet him in victory lane, making it another family affair.

2 weeks later we had another first as Ryan Blaney went to victory lane at Pocono in his 68th career start. It was sweet redemption after coming so close to winning at Kansas and Texas. And of course, keeping it all in the family, Ryan's dad, and former Cup Series driver, Dave Blaney, was waiting there in victory lane for him. 

While it was no surprise that Blaney found victory lane, Stenhouse and Dillon's wins certainly shook up the playoff picture and have led to some really big names, as mentioned earlier, to be on the brink of missing the playoffs. Stenhouse was even able to back it up by winning again at Daytona. If you would have told me at the beginning of the year that Danica Patrick would celebrate in victory lane not once, but TWICE, I would have thought you were insane!

We may not be done with first time winners this year, either. Don't forget that Chase Elliott is still looking for his first win. The 21 year old phenom has finished 2nd 3 times already in his young career and he's coming off a 3rd place finish last week. Erik Jones is on a roll lately with 3 Top 10's in the last 5 races, including a career best 3rd at Pocono. Daniel Suarez has been more consistent as of late as well, leading laps at Daytona and he was running in the Top 10 before a last lap crash sent him back at Kentucky. And let's not forget Ty Dillon. That team has been playing the fuel mileage game a lot this year, most recently at Daytona and Dover. If older brother Austin can pull it off, why can't Ty?

Silly Season

Last year's Silly Season wasn't that silly at all. Tony Stewart retired and Clint Bowyer replaced him, but we knew that going into the season. With the exception of Carl Edwards's sudden retirement in the offseason, the only driver moves were among the smaller, underfunded teams. This year, however, is totally different with big names already out of big time rides and more rumors than you can possibly imagine floating around.

The first domino to fall came just this past week. Last Friday Matt Kenseth mentioned in a press conference that he would not be returning to JGR next season. On Monday, JGR mentioned they weren't sure who would drive the 20 car. And then on Tuesday they announced that Erik Jones would take over the ride. Not all that surprising really as rumors had been floating around for awhile that this would happen. Most believed that JGR and Furniture Row would do a swap with Erik going to the 20 and Matt going to the 77, but also in the past week FRR owner Barney Visser has said that they may not have the funding to continue to field the 77 car next year, leaving Kenseth's future uncertain.

The rest of the Silly Season dominoes seem to be contingent on one thing....who will drive the 88 car next year? As I said in my last post, Alex Bowman seems to be the logical fit, but surprisingly Bowman's name is hardly being mentioned at all. Within hours of Dale Jr. announcing his retirement Carl Edwards's name was thrown into the mix, and just as quickly it was taken out when he said he had no interest in talking to Hendrick and Hendrick said he had no interest in talking to Carl. Kyle Larson was the next name to pop up, but shortly after his name hit the rumor mill he made a statement about being loyal to Ganassi because Chip gave him a chance when no one else would. Rumors cooled down for several weeks, then Ryan Blaney won at Pocono. The following week an apparent Hendrick Motorsports employee leaked that the team was targeting Ryan Blaney to drive the 88. The only problem is that Blaney is currently under contract with Team Penske and Penske earlier this season expressed his plan to get Blaney in the fold sooner, rather than later, and possibly starting up a 3rd team for him. That's not to say it can't happen. Money talks. But in a bidding war for Blaney it's anybody's guess who would come out on top. That same apparent employee had also mentioned that Erik Jones was their secondary target. Erik was in the same situation as Blaney, except under contract with JGR. So, if this rumor was true, that means Hendrick lost that bidding war.

About a day after the Blaney/Jones rumors surfaced things started to really get crazy. When asked by a media member if he had locked up a contract for next season, Brad Keselowski responded by saying he would have an announcement soon and that there wasn't a reason why he "shouldn't want" to re-sign with Penske. Shouldn't want? Is that past tense? Rumors began to swirl about Brad Keselowski going to HMS, and they are still churning. It makes sense. Brad got his big break driving for JR Motorsports, the team owned by Dale Jr., in the Xfinity Series. In 2 seasons with JR Motorsports he won 6 races and finished 3rd in the championship both years. He ran 2 races in a 5th Hendrick car in the Cup series in 2008 and 7 races in 2009. Also in 2009 Keselowski drove 5 races for James Finch and the team was powered by Hendrick engines. Driving for Finch at Talladega, Brad snagged his first Cup victory. It looked all but locked up that he would replace Mark Martin, whose contract was expiring, in the 5 car in 2010, but then Martin went on to win 5 races in 2009 and finish 2nd in the points. Pair that with the fact that Keselowski's aggressive driving style was ruffling a lot of feathers and it's easy to see why Rick Hendrick decided to extend Martin's contract for 2 more years rather than sign Keselowski. Roger Penske jumped at the opportunity and hired Brad to replace David Stremme and the rest is history. Hendrick ended up hiring Kasey Kahne to replace Martin 2 years later. Imagine what could've been. Brad Keselowski is considered the one that got away from Hendrick and I'm sure he would love to get him back, but would Brad really want to go back? He mentioned in a 2014 interview that he felt betrayed by HMS when they chose Martin over him. Does time heal all wounds? Or is there still bitter resentment? If Brad does take the ride that would make it easy for Penske to transition Blaney over by putting him in the 2 car.

William Byron is another young driver who seems destined to one day drive a Hendrick Motorsports Chevy in the Cup series, but despite already having 2 wins in his rookie venture in the Xfinity Series, many question whether or not he's ready to make the jump to Cup. Most believe that another year of Xfinity will be good for the 19 year old. If only there were a veteran driver they could put in the car for a year until Byron is ready to take over.....Wait a second! What about Matt Kenseth? That's another possibility that has been floating around for a few weeks and is really picking up steam now that it's official that he will not be returning to JGR. Kenseth is the oldest driver in the series and retirement most likely right around the corner for him, but he feels he can still win races and compete for championships and isn't ready to retire just yet. Going to Hendrick for a year might just give him the option to go out on his own terms.

Going full circle, what about Alex Bowman? Well, speculation is that he's not being mentioned for the #88 because he already has a ride locked down for next year. Coincidentally, popular consensus is that Kasey Kahne will not be returning to Hendrick Motorsports next year, yet nobody is talking about a replacement driver for the 5 car. Could it be that Bowman is set to take over the 5 car for Kasey Kahne? Many believe so. Another ride that appears to be open next season is the 10 car for Stewart-Haas Racing. Danica Patrick is in the midst of her worst season as a Cup competitor and they are struggling to find sponsorship for her, a problem they didn't use to have. She has also stated that she'll retire when she stops having fun and that this year hasn't been much fun. Seems like she's having more fun celebrating in victory lane with Ricky Stenhouse than actually running on track. There hasn't been a lot of chatter as to who could be a possible replacement, but Tony Stewart has a history of bringing in drivers he has a close relationship with such as Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer. Despite Kyle Larson expressing his loyalty to Ganassi, his name has popped up as a possibility as he and Tony are really close due to their sprint car backgrounds. Kasey Kahne is another driver who frequents the sprint car races with Smoke, maybe this could be his landing spot. But Ford has been committed to keeping drivers in the Ford circle (or perhaps oval) and with Roush Fenway Racing having 3 drivers (Chris Buescher is on loan to JTG Daugherty) and recently announcing they will continue to field 2 cars next year, this could be a great ride to keep all those drivers in a Ford. The question is which driver? Does Buescher go there since Stenhouse and Bayne already have established relationships in the Roush garage? Does Roush choose Stenhouse and Buescher since they each have wins in the past 2 seasons, sending Bayne to SHR? Or does SHR take Stenhouse since he has the best resume? There's always they possibility they could call up SHR development driver Cole Custer, but he's been struggling in the Xfinity Series this year and it would probably be a mistake to promote him at this time. And let's not forget that Bubba Wallace, a current Ford driver, is in search of a ride, too.

Regardless of what happens with those teams it looks fairly certain that Ryan Blaney will be driving for Team Penske next season. What does that mean for the Wood Brothers? The assumption is that they will continue their technical alliance with Team Penske. Team Penske struck up a deal earlier this year with Menards to sponsor one of their Indy Car teams which is leading some to believe there could be a connection there and that Paul Menard, who could be on the outs at RCR as they want to bring Ty Dillon into the fold and it's not likely they'll start up a 4th team or get rid of Ryan Newman, will bring the Menards sponsorship with him to the Wood Brothers. Also, there is the question of Bubba Wallace. The 23 year old is in search of a Cup ride for next season and Ford wants to keep him in a Ford. The Wood Brothers have shown more success recently with young drivers in their cars than veterans, so this could be a potential landing spot for Wallace.

There are many other questions as well. If Larson does go to SHR, who replaces him at Ganassi? CGR has a history of revitalizing the careers of veteran drivers who appear to be done. Look at Sterling Marlin and Jamie McMurray. Perhaps they go with Kasey Kahne? If not there or SHR, where does Kahne land? GMS Motorsports, who currently fields Xfinity cars for Spencer Gallagher and Ben Kennedy as well as Trucks for Johnny Sauter, Kaz Grala, and Justin Haley, said they are hoping to make the jump to the Cup Series next year and Kahne's name has been linked to them as well. Will the 77 come back or not? If they do, who will be their driver? Kenseth? Kahne? Will Bubba Wallace return to Toyota where he got his start? Is Christopher Bell ready for the Cup Series? What about Martin Truex Jr. teaming up with his brother Ryan? Hmmmm.....

Strap in tight, folks, because we are in for a whirlwind of a summer. I'd be willing to bet that we will have most of these questions answered before the start of the playoffs.

Playoff Outlook

Unexpected winners like Ryan Newman, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Austin Dillon have certainly shaken up the playoffs this season. Through 18 races 10 drivers have already locked up spots in the playoffs with (unembumbered) wins. That leaves just 6 spots left to determine in 8 races. Who will fill them? We have winless veterans like Kyle Busch, Jamie McMurray, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Matt Kenseth, and Joey Logano. There's the young up and comers like Chase Elliott, Erik Jones, and Daniel Suarez who could win and get in. Plus there are plenty of wild cards like A.J. Allmendinger with a road course coming up. Paul Menard who has won at the Brickyard and had a Top 10 there last year. And wouldn't it be something if Dale Earnhardt Jr. pulled off a miraculous win at Richmond to make the playoffs in his final season? (conspiracy theorists will take that one and run with it)

My guess is that Joey Logano and the 3 JGR veterans will each find victory lane, which would leave 2 open spot for drivers with points, and right now those 2 drivers look like Chase Elliott and Jamie McMurray. Here is my prediction:

Round 1 Eliminations: McMurray, Dillon, Blaney, & Stenhouse

Round 1 will bite the first timers and as solid as Jamie Mac runs, the fact that he isn't accumulating playoff points will end his playoff run early. But if Stenhouse can get to the 2nd round, he has a good chance to win again at Talladega and advance to the 3rd round.

Round 2 Eliminations: Newman, Keselowski, Logano, & Elliott

Newman just won't run strong enough to continue going. Keselowski and Elliott have had a knack for finding trouble at the superspeedways lately. And Logano has struggled on the mile and a half tracks this year. With 2 of them in this round, he's toast.

Round 3 Eliminations: Hamlin, Kenseth, Johnson, & Ku. Busch

This round won't be so much about what these 4 did wrong, but more of the fact that the 4 that advance have been the best cars all season.

Final Four: Truex, Ky. Busch, Harvick, & Larson

Look familiar? These 4 drivers are currently your Top 4 in points. They aren't going anywhere. They have all far outperformed the rest of the competition this year, even though they may not have the wins to show it. 

And your 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series champion will be....................................

The final race is at Homestead, right? Homestead is a mile and a half, yes? Who is the King of the Mile and a Half? Martin Truex Jr. is your champion!

That's all for now. I'll be back in 2 months with my annual playoff preview. Until then, Happy Racin' Y'all!