The End of an Era
As mentioned in my last post, I had concerns that Dale Earnhardt Jr. would be able to finish the season and if he was not able to, then he would retire. Looks like I got half of that right....for now. Last week Dale Jr. announced that he will retire at the end of this season. It's just as well, Earnhardt has looked awful this year. He currently sits 24th in points with just one Top 10 (5th at Texas) and 5 finishes of 30th or worse. Yes, 5! Dale said in his press conference that he wanted to go out on his own terms, which leads me to believe that he had this planned for awhile, possibly before last season even ended, but didn't want the concussion to be the reasoning for hanging up the helmet. NASCAR's most popular driver for the past 14 years will certainly be missed. Let's hope somebody nabs him for a TV booth spot (I'm talking to you, Fox and NBC!).
So who will takeover the 88 (assuming they keep that number instead of going back to the 25)? Right now the hot bet is on Alex Bowman. Bowman, who so valiantly filled in for Earnhardt last year and came very close to winning at Phoenix, was kept on retainer by Hendrick Motorsports and is scheduled to drive several races for JR Motorsports in the Xfinity Series. Hendrick has been known to throw in some young talented rookies with little to no Cup experience in the past, though, and that has paid off. Look at Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Chase Elliott for example. 19 year old William Byron is in his first season under contract with Hendrick and in his first 8 Xfinity starts he has 2 Top 5's and 5 Top 10's and currently sits 3rd in points. But, even with all that, most experts, including myself, think he needs more experience before being thrust into the Cup Series. Even Hendrick had Elliott run 2 seasons in Xfinity before bringing him up, even though he won the championship in his rookie season. There has been speculation that Justin Allgaier or Elliott Sadler, who both drive for JR Motorsports, could drive the car next season until Byron is ready to take over. Internet chatter has thrown Carl Edwards's name into the mix, although he has expressed no interest and Hendrick has not reached out to him and apparently has not plan to, making it highly doubtful.
Dale Jr. joins Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Carl Edwards as the 4th high level Cup driver to retire in the last 2 years (5th if you count Greg Biffle, who hasn't officially retired, but looks unlikely to return to the series) and with a slew of young talented drivers like Byron, Daniel Hemric, Bubba Wallace, Cole Custer, Kyle Benjamin, Christopher Bell, Noah Gragson, Todd Gilliland, and Harrison Burton waiting in the wings for their opportunity at NASCAR's top level, you have to wonder who will be next. We saw a proverbial "passing of the torch" like this in the early 2000's when Dale Jarrett, Rusty Wallace, Terry Labonte, Bill Elliott, and Ricky Rudd all retired making room for the next generation of NASCAR drivers like Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson, Greg Biffle, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, and Martin Truex Jr..
So who else might we see retire in the next few years? With Greg Biffle gone Matt Kenseth is now the oldest driver in the series at 45 years old. He and Earnhardt are the only 2 active drivers to have raced in the Cup series in the 1990's, so he's a good bet. Many people believed that retirement announcement was coming 2 weeks ago when he and Joe Gibbs held a press conference, but it turns out that it was a sponsorship announcement. Kenseth last week said he is with Tom Brady in believing he can still compete until he's 50. We'll see about that.
Danica Patrick actually spoke about retiring a couple weeks ago saying that she'll quit when racing stops being fun, and that she's not having much fun this season. Danica's lack of production has always been saved by her marketability, but now that even she is struggling to find sponsorship, her days may be numbered. What about Jimmie Johnson? Now in his 16th season, he has 7 championships and 82 wins. Is that enough for him? Will he quit if he gets an 8th championship? Kevin Harvick and Jamie McMurray are both in their 40's as well. How much time do they have left?Stage Racing
I was very critical of the new stage racing format when NASCAR announced it in January. After seeing it in action, though, I'm actually becoming a fan. If nothing else, it has made the first half of races much more interesting. What I didn't expect was added strategical elements that really twist things around, such as when a caution comes out in the closing laps of a stage. You can stay on the track to grab the stage points and the possible playoff point, but the cars from about 10th on back are going to pit and you'll be behind them when you pit after the stage ends. Or you can pit now and possibly lose out on stage points, but better yourself for the next run. What do you do? This is the exact dilemma Ryan Blaney went through at Texas.
Another element of strategy is what to do AFTER you win a race and clinch a playoff spot? Do you keep battling for stage wins that pay out 1 playoff point? Or do you forego the stage points for the bigger picture, winning the race and grabbing those 5 playoff points? Going into Richmond Cole Pearn, crew chief for Martin Truex Jr., said the team will no longer be "trying" to win stages, but rather focus on winning races. So it's a safe bet that if the 78 team faces a similar dilemma to what the 21 team did at Texas they will pit before the end of the stage to better set them up for the race finish. It will be fun to see what other teams do.
Who's Hot?
The "Indy" Teams
When you talk about a great battle between Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing you typically think of Will Power vs. Scott Dixon, or Helio Castroneves vs. Tony Kanaan. These are two Indy Car powerhouse teams, yet both of their NASCAR programs are really on point this year. This is nothing new for Penske, but Ganassi is by far off to his best start since 2002 when Sterling Marlin won 2 of the first 5 races and led the points after 9 races. Kyle Larson has a win and 4 runner up finishes in the first 9 races this year and has a 40 point lead over Martin Truex Jr.. Larson's teammate, Jamie McMurray, while not being as dominant, is off to a rather good start as well. Jamie hasn't recorded any Top 5's yet, but he does have 5 Top 10's and 7 Top 15's to put him solidly 7th in the points standings. Chip has never had 2 of his teams both win a race in the same season, but that could change this weekend. Jamie McMurray has 2 Talladega wins and a total of 4 restrictor plate wins in his career.
Even though CGR may have the best driver so far this season, Penske's duo of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are probably the best overall team. Team Penske has 3 wins, 2 for Keselowski and 1 (encumbered win) for Logano. Both drivers have 6 Top 5's and Logano has 8 Top 10's while Keselowski has 7. Brad has also racked up more playoff points than any other driver, 11. Should be fun to watch these 2 teams battle throughout the season.Young Guns
There are currently 6 drivers 26 years of age or less in the Top 16 in points: Kyle Larson (24), Chase Elliott (21), Joey Logano (26), Ryan Blaney (23), Trevor Bayne (26), and Erik Jones (20). Elliott and Blaney appear to be knocking on the doors of victory lane and that can happen any week now. Chase already has 3 Top 5's and dominated the first two thirds of the Phoenix race, leading 106 laps before falling to finish 12th. As stated earlier, Ryan Blaney had the car to beat at Texas, leading almost the entire first half of the race, and let's not forget that he finished 2nd in the Daytona 500. Erik Jones hasn't had the results to back up how well he's been driving this year. His best finish was 8th at Phoenix. He also has 5 Top 15's and has twice qualified inside the Top 10. Give Erik some time and he will join the ranks of the others.
Career Resurgence
Ryan Newman entered the race at Phoenix with a 127 race winless streak and an average finish of 21st on the season. When the caution flew with 5 laps to go the team gambled and stayed out while everyone else, with the exception of Ricky Stenhouse, pitted. Newman just had to hold the field off for 2 laps and, with the help of Stenhouse bumping Kyle Larson in turn 1 on the restart, he pulled off the victory. He picked up 2 more top 10's since and led 25 laps last week in Richmond. Don't expect Newman to be satisfied now that he's got a win. He'll be looking to get more before the season is out.
Speaking of long winless streaks, it's been 158 races since Clint Bowyer last won a race. After a disappointing 32nd place finish at Daytona, Bowyer has not finished worse than 15th. Clint was all smiles after a 3rd place finish at Auto Club Speedway, but after finishing 2nd at Bristol, Bowyer was anything but that. Seeing Clint disappointed after finishing 2nd is a great sight to see. Keep your eyes on him as the season progresses. He appears to be back!Roush-Fenway
Okay, so maybe Roush-Fenway Racing isn't "Hot", but they're defrosting. Let's start with Trevor Bayne. While his best finish is 10th at Daytona, he has 7 Top 15's and has only finished outside the Top 20 once. His consistency has him sitting 14th in points. After 9 races last year his best finish was 5th at Bristol, but he only had 2 Top 15 finishes and 4 finishes outside the Top 20, leading him to an 18th place position in the standings.
As for Ricky Stenhouse, he has 4 Top 10's and 2 Top 5's so far this year, twice as many as he did at this point last year. His average finish this year is 15.6 compared to 19.6 at this time last year, and he is currently 15th in points, compared to 19th last year.
It's looking like the teams decision to only field 2 cars for the first time since 1995 is paying off to some extent. Let's hope the improvement continues for the car owner who has accumulated 135 wins over 30 years in the sport.
Who's Not?
Joe Gibbs Racing
JGR won 5 of the first 9 races last year and a total of 12 races on the year. So far this season they have no wins and their 4 drivers have only amassed 5 Top 5's (Kyle Busch's 2nd at Martinsville is the teams best finish of the season). Kyle Busch is the only JGR driver in the Top 10 in points (He's 10th). There are some silver linings, though. Busch led the most laps at both Phoenix and Martinsville, Matt Kenseth led the most at Richmond, Denny Hamlin has led laps in 4 of the last 5 races, and Daniel Suarez has finished every race and completed all but 13 laps since a crash ended his day at Daytona. That's a definite plus for a rookie who, with no prior Cup experience, was thrown into this ride in the 11th hour. Also Suarez has done quite the opposite as his former teammate Erik Jones and has been finishing a lot better than he has been running. He spent the majority of the Richmond race off the lead lap and outside the Top 25, but came back to finish 12th. I'd be very surprised if JGR didn't get things turned around and I still think all 4 drivers may see victory lane before the year is out.
3/4 of Hendrick Motorsports
Chase Elliott is having a magnificent start to the year. Can't say the same about his teammates. Sure Jimmie Johnson has 2 wins under his belt, but he only has 3 Top 10's. And it's not like Jimmie is having bad luck and getting caught up in wrecks. He crashed in Daytona, but that's it. He's finished on the lead lap in all but 2 races this year.
We already talked about Dale Jr.'s struggles and his retirement announcement might have been the best thing to happen to Kasey Kahne. I firmly believed that if Jr. didn't retire then Alex Bowman would replace Kasey Kahne. Now Hendrick will have to hire 2 drivers if he wants to get rid of Kahne. That actually shouldn't be hard for Mr. H. to do and he should really want to do it. Kahne got off to a promising start with Top 10's at Daytona and Atlanta, but in the following 7 races he has a best finish of 12th and 5 finishes of 20th or worse. Maybe Kahne will replace Danica over at SHR. Tony likes his dirt racers and the move appears to be paying off for Bowyer. Maybe the same can happen for Kasey.NASCAR's Governing Body
NASCAR has really gotten themselves in a pickle. It all started when Kyle Busch climbed out of his wrecked car in Vegas and slowly strolled down pit road to Joey Logano's car where he then (attempted to?) sucker punched Logano. NASCAR had the opportunity to set the standard by punishing Busch, but they did nothing. So when Ross Chastain punched Jeremy Clements in the face, giving him a black eye, during a rain delay at Bristol 2 weeks ago, NASCAR's hands were tied and therefore could not issue any punishment there either. This is going down a dark path and it won't be long before somebody really gets hurt from a post race fight and then it will be too late. And to think, just a simple punishment back in March could have stopped it all.
Rowdy's Accountability
While we're talking about Kyle Busch, has anyone else noticed that he has ZERO accountability for anything? It started in Daytona when Busch blamed Goodyear for his crash saying that the tires "aren't good at holding air.". Yet video later surfaced showing that all four tires were up at the time of the crash. 2 months later Busch was at Goodyear's throat again after 2 flat tires in Bristol, yet the tires were fine for other drivers. He also blamed Joey Logano for the accident in Vegas, which let's face it, Joey dumped him, but it was Kyle who initiated the contact in the first place. And most recently at Richmond he accused NASCAR of calling "balls and strikes" when he was penalized for a commitment line violation entering pit road. Video again clearly showed he did not meet the commitment line and NASCAR very consistently made that call all day, penalizing 5 other drivers throughout the race. If Rowdy isn't careful he might find himself going down the same path his brother went down several years back.
Playoff Outlook
6 drivers have already punched their ticket to the playoffs this year with wins: Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman, and Kurt Busch (Joey Logano's win is "encumbered" because he failed post race inspection due to an illegal rear suspension and therefore it cannot be used to get him into the playoffs). That means just 10 more spots left. Joey Logano will win again and Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch will surely pick up wins. That leaves 7. Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth will probably win as well. That leaves 5. Chase Elliott will point his way in if he doesn't win, but I'd be shocked if he doesn't. So that leaves 4 more. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was one of my original picks, but unless he wins at Talladega or Daytona, I don't see that happening anymore. Jamie McMurray will probably point his way in and so will Clint Bowyer if he doesn't win. Ryan Blaney is another one who will likely make it on points if he doesn't win. That leaves one more. I originally had Austin Dillon, but I really think either Daniel Suarez or Erik Jones will win a race and knock him out. Of those two, even though he's had a rocky start, I'm still leaning toward Suarez to win and make the playoffs.
First Elimination- Blaney, McMurray, Newman, Johnson
This round will be determined by consistency and experience. Being Blaney's, and the Wood Brothers', first time in the playoffs they won't have anything to go off of and are likely to be eliminated quickly. McMurray and Newman won't accumulate enough playoff points, putting them in a deep hole to start. And Jimmie Johnson only has 4 Top 10's in the 10 races at these 3 tracks over the last 2 years.
Second Elmination- Larson, Bowyer, Hamlin, Kenseth
They say you have to lose one before you can win one. This will be the one Larson loses. The team has never faced the sort of pressure they'll face in this year's playoffs and will succumb to it. Bowyer will be another victim of having a lack of playoff points. Hamlin and Kenseth just won't run well enough to advance.
Third Elimination- Suarez, Kurt Busch, Elliott, Harvick
The experience of the 19 team will take Suarez far, but his inexperience will be his undoing. Kurt Busch is consistent, but his inability to be consistently in the Top 5 will knock him out. Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick will be victim's of bad races.
Final Four- Keselowski, Logano, Kyle Busch, Truex
At this point you have to look at statistics for each driver at Homestead.
Brad Keselowski- 0 wins, 2 Top 5's, 3 Top 10's. Average Finish: 15.9
Joey Logano- 0 wins, 2 Top 5's, 3 Top 10's. Average Finish: 16.0
Kyle Busch- 1 win, 2 Top 5's, 5 Top 10's. Average Finish: 19.8
Martin Truex Jr.- 0 wins, 3 Top 5's, 7 Top 10's. Average Finish: 13.6
Looking at those I think it's clear who your champ is.....
....but I'm not looking at that. You tell Kyle Busch he'll win the championship if he wins the race and you better believe he'll win the race.
That's all for now. I'll be back in a few months with the halfway report. Until then...Happy Racin' Y'all!
Comments
Post a Comment