Jamie McMurray
How He Got Here: Jamie finished the regular season with just 2 Top 5's and 7 Top 10's, but his extreme consistency got him an average finish of 15th, making him the first driver to lock himself in on points. This is his first Chase appearance.
Strong Points: Although an average finish of 15th won't win him a championship, it can certainly get him through the first round. The 2nd round features Charlotte and Talladega, tracks that he has 2 wins at each. The 3rd round certainly appears to be his strong suit. He finished in the Top 10 at all 3 tracks earlier this year, including a runner up finish at Phoenix, the track that I believe he has the best shot of winning at. If he should manage to make it that far, of all the Chase tracks, Jamie's best average finish is at Homestead.
Road Blocks: He may have 2 wins at Talladega, but he also has 4 finishes outside the Top 20 in the last 6 races there. Consistency is key for him and I don't think he can afford a mulligan if he wants to win the championship.
My Prediction: Jamie will be eliminated after the 2nd round and finish 10th in the final standings.
Brad Keselowski
How He Got Here: Brad won at Fontana at the beginning of the season locking in his Chase bid early. Along with the win he had 6 Top 5's and 18 Top 10's.
Strong Points: No doubt the first 2 races of the Chase are his strongest tracks. He has 2 wins at Chicago in the last 3 years and if that doesn't get him through he has a win (last year), 5 Top 5's, and 8 Top 10's in 12 starts at New Hampshire.
Road Blocks: The bad news is that Brad's strongest tracks are in the first round. The 2nd round appears to be Keselowski's biggest test. Although he did finish 7th at Kansas earlier this year, 3 of his last 4 finishes there have been outside the Top 10. He struggled at Charlotte last year as well, finishing 16th. If Brad can make it through the 2nd round, it should be smooth sailing from there.
My Prediction: Brad makes it to the Final Four at Homestead.
Kevin Harvick
How He Got Here: Harvick also punched his Chase ticket early winning at Las Vegas and Phoenix earlier this year. And in case that wasn't enough he had 18 Top 5's and 22 Top 10's in the opening 26 races.
Strong Points: Everywhere? You don't get 18 Top 5's in 26 races without being really good on all kinds of tracks, but without a doubt Harvick's best track is Phoenix where he has won 7 times and 4 in a row. Phoenix is the final elimination race before Homestead, so it's pretty safe to say that if Harvick makes it to the 3rd round he has a more than excellent chance of advancing to the Final Four.
Road Blocks: The track on the Chase schedule that Kevin has had the most difficulty with is Martinsville. 25% of his Martinsville starts he has finished outside the Top 30. The good news is that Martinsville is in the same round as Phoenix, so he probably doesn't have much to worry about. Last year he finished 33rd at the paperclip, but won at Phoenix to advance to the Final Four.
My Prediction: Harvick makes it to the Final Four at Homestead.
Denny Hamlin
How He Got Here: Denny's win at Martinsville earlier this year punched his ticket to the Chase. He also had 9 Top 5's and 13 Top 10's.
Strong Points: His win at Martinsville this spring was his 5th career victory at the track. Should he make it to the 3rd round there is a good chance for him to lock up a Final Four spot by winning there again. Homestead has also been a really good track for Hamlin with 2 wins in the last 6 years.
Road Blocks: While it certainly appears that Hamlin will be strong in the late rounds, he has to get there first. In his last 5 starts at Loudon (first round) he has an average finish of 18.4 and only one Top 10. Same for Dover (also first round). If he should overcome those tracks he has Kansas in the 2nd round where his average finish over the last 5 races is 20.4 again with just one Top 10.
My Prediction: Denny is eliminated after the first round and finishes 9th in the final standings.
Clint Bowyer
My Prediction: Denny is eliminated after the first round and finishes 9th in the final standings.
Clint Bowyer
How He Got Here: It's been a whirlwind of a season for Clint, but he managed to get 2 Top 5's and 11 Top 10's and squeak into the Chase on points. One of the Top 5's and 7 of the Top 10's came in the last 10 races of the regular season after MWR made a crew chief change following the race at Sonoma.
Strong Points: Momentum is one. This team has been racing better over the last 10 races than they have all year. Despite having never won there, Homestead has long been one of Clint's better tracks. Same for Dover, where he has 9 straight Top 10 finishes, and Martinsville.
Road Blocks: Staying focused on 2015. Clint's plans (as far as we know) are up in the air for 2016 with the impending closure of MWR. Rumors are swirling that Bowyer will take over the 51 at HScott Motorsports next year and then replace Tony Stewart in the 14 in 2017, but nothing has been confirmed yet. While I have no doubt that Clint can stay focused (Kevin Harvick nearly won the championship at RCR when he knew he was leaving for SHR the next year), my main concern is with the team. Clint isn't the only one losing his job. Everyone in that organization is. Every single person that works on those cars will be trying to put together a championship winning car while also searching for future employment. That spells disaster for me.
My Prediction: Clint is eliminated after the first round and finishes 15th in the final standings.
Kyle Busch
How He Got Here: 4 wins, 6 Top 5's, and 9 Top 10's in 15 races! That's how! Kyle Busch put together an amazing string of races coming off his broken leg to get himself inside the Top 30 and qualify for the Chase. He scored more points in 15 races than 8 other drivers who started all 26, including Tony Stewart, Sam Hornish, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Trevor Bayne.
Strong Points: New Hampshire and Chicago. He won at New Hampshire earlier this year 5 straight Top 10's there, including 4 Top 2's! He also has 3 straight Top 10's at Chicago, two of those being Top 5's. I think it's safe to say Kyle will make it out of the first round.
Road Blocks: Throughout his career Kyle's worst tracks have been Homestead, Talladega, and Kansas. Unfortunately for him Kansas and Talladega are both in the 2nd round. He has more finishes outside the Top 30 at Talladega (9) than Top 10's (5). Same holds true for Kansas with 5 finishes outside the Top 30 on only 3 Top 10's. Even if he does continue to struggle at these 2 tracks he can still advance with a win at Charlotte, something he has never done, but he has finished 2nd there twice.
My Prediction: Kyle is eliminated after the 2nd round and finishes 14th in the final standings.
Carl Edwards
How He Got Here: 2 wins (Charlotte & Darlington), 3 Top 5's, and 9 Top 10's.
Strong Points: Carl has already won at Charlotte this year and has 4 straight Top 10's there. Assuming he makes it through the first round, another Charlotte win would advance him to round 3. Should he advance again he goes to the "Winner Take All" Final Four at Homestead where he has 2 career victories.
Road Blocks: Talladega has long been Carl's kryptonite and he has finished outside the Top 20 in his last 3 starts there. That being said, Talladega is in the same round as Charlotte, so if Carl can win there it doesn't matter how he finishes at 'Dega. Should he advance to the 3rd round then Edwards will have to make it through Phoenix. He has had a lot of success there in the past with 2 wins and 7 Top 5's, but in the since Subway (a long time sponsor for Edwards) stopped sponsoring the Phoenix races in 2013 (that's 4 races) Carl only has one Top 10 and an average finish of 14th. Hmmm.....
My Prediction: Carl is eliminated after the 3rd round and finishes 11th in the final standings.
Matt Kenseth
How He Got Here: 4 wins (3 in the last 6 races), 10 Top 5's, and 16 Top 10's.
Strong Points: Should Matt make it to the Final Four he just may very well be the favorite. He has 2 Top 5's and 3 Top 10's in his last 4 races there and led the most laps en route to a runner up finish in 2013. He has also been very good at Martinsville (4 straight Top 6's) and Chicago (back to back Top 10's and a win) in recent years.
Road Blocks: Despite having a tremendous amount of success at Texas over his career Matt has finished 23rd and 25th in his last 2 races there. Mistakes and bad finishes can be overcome in the early rounds, but a finish outside the Top 20 in round 3 just may put an end to your championship dreams.
My Prediction: Matt is eliminated after the 3rd round and finishes 5th in the final standings.
Joey Logano
How He Got Here: 3 wins, 16 Top 5's, and 20 Top 10's.
Strong Points: New Hampshire, Kansas, and Martinsville. Joey's consistency will probably be enough to get him through to the Final Four, but in case something goes wrong he has a very strong track in each of the 3 rounds that he can win at and advance. Logano has back to back Top 5's at New Hampshire and won that race last year. He has 4 straight Top 5's at Kansas and also won that race last year. And although he's never won at Martinsville, he has 3 straight Top 5's and has led 14% of the laps run in those 3 races.
Road Blocks: Chicago and Talladega. If Joey has any sort of issues at all at New Hampshire and Dover his Chase may end early. In 6 Chicago starts he only has 2 Top 10's, but he did get his career best finish there last year with a 4th. Talladega has to be his biggest concern. In his last 8 starts at the superspeedway his best finish is 11th with 5 finishes of 25th or worse.
My Prediction: Joey makes it to the Final Four at Homestead.
Jeff Gordon
How He Got Here: It wasn't pretty, but Jeff managed to get 3 Top 5's and 13 Top 10's to make the Chase on points.
Strong Points: It's hard to find any track that Jeff hasn't had success at over his 23 year career, but when it comes to recent history you have to look at Chicago and Dover. He finished 2nd in the Chicago race last year and 6th in 2013. He won the Chase race at Dover last year, but hasn't won a race since. In his last 6 Dover starts he has 4 Top 5's and 5 Top 10's. Both Chicago and Dover are in the first round, so I have no doubt that he will advance to round 2.
Road Blocks: Talladega has not been friendly to Jeff in recent years. His last Top 10 came back in 2012 and he has 3 straight finishes of 26th or worse there. Should he make it through the 2nd round he has another obstacle with Texas. He did finish 7th there in the spring, but 3 of his last 5 Texas starts have resulted in finishes of 29th or worse.
My Prediction: Jeff is eliminated after the 2nd round and finishes 6th in the final standings in his final season.
Paul Menard
How He Got Here: He may have only had 2 Top 5's, and 4 Top 10's, but his average finish of 16.7 matched that of Clint Bowyer and was only slightly lower than Carl Edwards' and Jeff Gordon's. He snuck into the final position by 17 points to make the Chase for the first time in his career.
Strong Points: Paul finished 3rd at Talladega earlier this year and has finished 6th or better in 3 of the last 4 races there. He also had a Top 10 at Dover earlier this year and Kansas has historically been on of his best tracks with a best finish of 3rd in 2012.
Road Blocks: Menard comes into the Chase with 3 straight finishes outside the Top 20 and Chicago and New Hampshire (the first 2 races of the Chase) have historically been 2 of his worst tracks. He has just 3 Top 20 finishes in 8 Chicago starts with a best of 10th in 2010 and he has never finished better than 12th in 17 starts at New Hampshire. Needless to say, it's going to be tough for Paul to make it out of the first round.
My Prediction: Paul is eliminated after the first round and finishes 16th in the final standings.
Ryan Newman
How He Got Here: Consistency. He had 4 Top 5's and 12 Top 10's, but his average finish of 13.8 ranks 9th among the 16 Chase drivers. He only finished outside the Top 20 4 times this year.
Strong Points: Newman made it to the Final Four last year by doing just that, being consistent. He never finished worse than 18th and had 6 Top 10 finishes. The 2nd round is definitely his strong suit. He has 4 Top 10's in his last 5 Charlotte starts, back to back Top 10's at Kansas, and 4 Top 10's in his last 6 Talladega starts. And don't count him out at Phoenix either, he has a win, 6 Top 5's, and 7 Top 10's in his last 11 starts there.
Road Blocks: It's been 78 races since Newman has gone to victory lane. Never has a driver won the championship without winning a race. While Newman's conservative strategy has paid off to get him to the final round, it's highly doubtful that a team will win the championship without winning a race.
My Prediction: Newman makes it to the Final Four at Homestead.
Kurt Busch
How He Got Here: Despite being suspended for the first 3 races of the season, Kurt came out guns blazing winning 2 races and picking up 8 Top 5's, and 14 Top 10's.
Strong Points: Although he has never won a points paying restrictor plate race, Kurt has always been good at them. He has finished 3rd at Talladega 4 times in his career and could very easily sneak away with a win there to send him into the 3rd round. Phoenix has also been good to Kurt lately with 2 Top 5's and 3 Top 10's in the last 4 races there. Wins at both tracks could set him up in the Final Four.
Road Blocks: First thing is first, you have to make it out of the first round. Kurt has 3 career wins at New Hampshire, but before he finished 10th there earlier this summer, he had 7 straight finishes outside the Top 10, 5 of those being outside the Top 20. Also, since his win at Dover in 2011, Kurt has finished outside the Top 10 in each of the 7 races held there. Perhaps he can end that streak like he did at New Hampshire earlier this year. If he can't, though, he might be looking at an early Chase exit.
My Prediction: Kurt is eliminated after the first round and finishes 13th in the final standings.
Jimmie Johnson
How He Got Here: 4 wins, 11 Top 5's, and 17 Top 10's.
Strong Points: Jimmie has won races at 8 of the 10 tracks in the Chase. He has 10, yes 10, victories at Dover, including 3 of the last 4, which should put him through to the 2nd round. Jimmie also has 5 wins at Texas, including 4 of the last 6, which could lock him into the Final Four.
Road Blocks: Remember when I said that Carl Edwards has struggled at Phoenix since Subway stopped sponsoring the races? Well much is the same with Jimmie at Charlotte. In the 11 races since Lowe's stopped sponsoring the track Jimmie has just 1 win (he had 6 when it was Lowe's Motor Speedway), 4 Top 10's, and 5 finishes of 22nd or worse. The race immediately following Charlotte is Kansas, where Jimmie finished 40th in the Chase race last year. He did win at Kansas earlier this year though.
My Prediction: Jimmie is eliminated after the 2nd round and finishes 8th in the final standings.
Martin Truex Jr.
How He Got Here: A win at Pocono, 7 Top 5's, and 17 Top 10's.
Strong Points: Truex's first career victory came at Dover in 2007. He has not finished worse than 7th at the track since joining Furniture Row and led the most laps this past spring. Kansas has been a really good track to Truex over the years as well. He's finished 2nd there twice and has 4 Top 5's and 5 Top 10's in his last 7 starts there. And if Martin should make it to the Final Four, he has 3 Top 5's in 10 Homestead starts, including 2 in the last 4 races.
Road Blocks: The 3rd round. Before picking up a 6th place finish at Martinsville in the spring, he had 5 straight finishes outside the Top 15 with 4 of those being outside the Top 20. He has just 1 Top 10 in his last 4 Texas starts and just 2 Top 10's in his last 6 Phoenix starts.
My Prediction: Truex is eliminated after the 3rd round and finishes 7th in the final standings.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
How He Got Here: 2 wins, 12 Top 5's, and 17 Top 10's.
Strong Points: Jr. has a strong track in each of the three rounds. He has 4 straight Top 10's at New Hampshire and hasn't finished outside of the Top 20 since 2009. He has won the last 2 restrictor plate races (Talladega and Daytona) and has 6 career victories at Talladega. And he has 7 Top 10's and 2 Top 5's in his last 9 Texas starts.
Road Blocks: Jr. also has an obstacle to overcome in each round. In 14 Chicago starts he only has 5 Top 10's (one of those was a win) and his last two finishes there are 11th and 35th. Kansas has been decent to him in recent years, but he did finish 39th in the Chase race last year. And while he has a couple wins at Phoenix, he finished 43rd there in the spring. While he can surely overcome a bad finish in the early rounds, he can't afford something like this in the late rounds without a win.
The Final Four
When it comes to the last race it really all comes down to who is the best at Homestead. What the driver did the rest of the season really doesn't matter.Brad Keselowski has 6 starts at Homestead. In those he has 1 Top 5 and 2 Top 10's and an average finish of 15th. The Top 10's have come in each of the last 2 years with his 3rd place finish last year being a career best for him at the track.
Kevin Harvick has 14 starts at Homestead. In those he has a win, 6 Top 5's, and 12 Top 10's and an average finish of 7.6. He won this race last year to take home his first championship and has finished in the Top 10 in each of the last 7 races. In fact, Harvick has never finished worse than 20th in a Sprint Cup race at Homestead.
Joey Logano has 6 starts at Homestead. In those he has 1 Top 10 and an average finish of 20th. His only Top 10 was an 8th place finish in 2013. He finished 16th last year.
Ryan Newman has 13 starts at Homestead. In those he has 2 Top 5's, 5 Top 10's, and an average finish of 15.8. Both of his Top 5's have come in the last 3 years and he was the runner up to Harvick in last year's finale.
With all that to consider it seems obvious who to pick as this year's champion, however, I like a good upset from time to time. My prediction for this year's champion is.......
Brad Keselowski
Followed by Harvick, Newman, and Logano.
There you have it folks. Make your picks and sit back and enjoy. We'll see you again after Homestead. Until then...Happy Racin' Y'all!
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