Nascar has a problem and his name is Ryan Newman. Sounds crazy, right? Well, here's the thing...it really isn't.
Over the past few years Nascar has really moved toward making winning more important. It started in 2004, the first year of the Chase, when they increased the amount of points received for winning by 5 points. The next step was in 2007 when they expanded the Chase field to 12. Instead of the field being set by where they stood in points after 26 races, the drivers instead received 10 points for each win they had in that season (Something that is still done today, but the point system has changed so it is only 3 points now) and only 10 drivers would be locked in by points, and the other 2 drivers were "wild cards" which were the 2 drivers 10-20 in points with the most wins. This format essentially stayed in place until this year when Nascar implemented the new elimination playoff style Chase format, which by now I'm sure everyone knows how it works...win and you're in.
What does this all have to do with Ryan Newman? When Nascar announced the Chase change it was
quickly figured out that if this format would have been in place last year, Dale Earnhardt Jr. would have won the championship without winning a race. That was downplayed, however, due to the fact that if this format would have been in place, the drivers would have raced differently. Solid point. Yet here we sit, 7 races into the Chase, and Ryan Newman, who hasn't even come close to winning this year, sits 2nd in points with a 4 point cushion over 5th place Denny Hamlin. How is this so? Consistency.
Newman made the Chase by being the 2nd highest driver in points without a win after only 13 drivers won a race in the "regular season". His 8th place position in the points would have been enough to get him in last year's Chase format as well, so nothing wrong there. Ryan struggled in the first round of eliminations after finishing 15th in the opener at Chicago, and then 15th at Loudon, but an 8th place finish at Dover advanced him to the next round by 14 points. Since then he has been excellent with finishes of 6th, 7th, 5th, and 3rd. If we were still running the old format, he would be 4th in points, but trailing point leader Joey Logano by 47 points and Nascar would not be worried at all. This is not last year's format though. Two more top 5's or close to it will undoubtedly get Newman into the championship race at Homestead, and what happens if he finishes top 5 there? He could very well win the Sprint Cup! With all the changes to encourage winning over the past 11 years, it would be absolutely DISASTROUS if Newman were able to do this!
So what does this mean? Well, I'm sure Brian France and Mike Helton are either rooting for Ryan to win this weekend or finish outside the top 30, then they can take a deep breath. If he picks up another top 5 and is still looking good to advance, though, I'd be more than willing to bet the powers that be would step in at Phoenix to ensure that he does not advance. Why not wait until Homestead? As of now nobody has really noticed that this could potentially happen and it probably won't be a major story unless he is in the top 4 going to Homestead. This is not a story that Nascar would want, which would lead me to believe they would take care of it at Phoenix.
Now I am quite aware that Matt Kenseth is sitting 4th in points without a win right now as well, but he doesn't seem to be as much as a threat. Kenseth is a past champion, won 6 races last year and has come close to winning a few this year. He is expected to be a championship contender and won the Championship in 2003 with only one win because of his extreme consistency. Kenseth has 12 top 5's and 20 top 10's this season while Newman only has 4 top 5's and 15 top 10's. So it's not nearly as bad if Kenseth were able to pull it off without a win as it would be if Newman did. So my advice to Ryan Newman...go out and win this weekend, because this race is your only shot at winning the Cup this year.
Over the past few years Nascar has really moved toward making winning more important. It started in 2004, the first year of the Chase, when they increased the amount of points received for winning by 5 points. The next step was in 2007 when they expanded the Chase field to 12. Instead of the field being set by where they stood in points after 26 races, the drivers instead received 10 points for each win they had in that season (Something that is still done today, but the point system has changed so it is only 3 points now) and only 10 drivers would be locked in by points, and the other 2 drivers were "wild cards" which were the 2 drivers 10-20 in points with the most wins. This format essentially stayed in place until this year when Nascar implemented the new elimination playoff style Chase format, which by now I'm sure everyone knows how it works...win and you're in.
What does this all have to do with Ryan Newman? When Nascar announced the Chase change it was quickly figured out that if this format would have been in place last year, Dale Earnhardt Jr. would have won the championship without winning a race. That was downplayed, however, due to the fact that if this format would have been in place, the drivers would have raced differently. Solid point. Yet here we sit, 7 races into the Chase, and Ryan Newman, who hasn't even come close to winning this year, sits 2nd in points with a 4 point cushion over 5th place Denny Hamlin. How is this so? Consistency.
Newman made the Chase by being the 2nd highest driver in points without a win after only 13 drivers won a race in the "regular season". His 8th place position in the points would have been enough to get him in last year's Chase format as well, so nothing wrong there. Ryan struggled in the first round of eliminations after finishing 15th in the opener at Chicago, and then 15th at Loudon, but an 8th place finish at Dover advanced him to the next round by 14 points. Since then he has been excellent with finishes of 6th, 7th, 5th, and 3rd. If we were still running the old format, he would be 4th in points, but trailing point leader Joey Logano by 47 points and Nascar would not be worried at all. This is not last year's format though. Two more top 5's or close to it will undoubtedly get Newman into the championship race at Homestead, and what happens if he finishes top 5 there? He could very well win the Sprint Cup! With all the changes to encourage winning over the past 11 years, it would be absolutely DISASTROUS if Newman were able to do this!
So what does this mean? Well, I'm sure Brian France and Mike Helton are either rooting for Ryan to win this weekend or finish outside the top 30, then they can take a deep breath. If he picks up another top 5 and is still looking good to advance, though, I'd be more than willing to bet the powers that be would step in at Phoenix to ensure that he does not advance. Why not wait until Homestead? As of now nobody has really noticed that this could potentially happen and it probably won't be a major story unless he is in the top 4 going to Homestead. This is not a story that Nascar would want, which would lead me to believe they would take care of it at Phoenix.
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