Change to the Chase
The biggest change this season will be the change to the Chase structure. Nascar's motto has always been "If it ain't broke, beat it with a tire iron until it is." Well, Nascar didn't fail in this case. The perfectly good Chase system that we've had the past few years (The same one that gave us the closest championship finish in Cup history in 2011) has been scrapped. This year we will see 16 drivers in
the Chase (because the 11th and 12th drivers they added a few years ago have done so well). Basically any driver that wins a race will make the Chase, so long as they are in the top 30 in points after 26 races and have attempted to qualify for each race and no more than 16 drivers have won a race (In the 10 year history of the Chase no more than 14 drivers have won in the first 26 races in a season). So the 16 drivers with the most wins will make up the Chase. If the points leader after 26 races does not have a win, he/she is guaranteed a spot and the 15 drivers with the most wins make the Chase. If there aren't 15 different winners, then the highest drivers in points without a win make the Chase. If more than 15/16 drivers have won, then the tie breaker will be whoever is highest in points. Confused yet? Just wait, there's more. Instead of just resetting the points and seeing who has the best final 10 races, Nascar has decided to follow the likes of the NBA, MLB, NFL, and NHL and have an elimination playoff, because Nascar is so similar to stick and ball team sports. After the first 3 races of the Chase, the bottom 4 drivers in the Chase will be eliminated, UNLESS! one of those bottom 4 drivers won one of
the first 3 races, then they advance and the next lowest in points is eliminated. Then all drivers points are reset to 3000 and they duke it out for the next 3 races. Again, bottom 4 in points eliminated, unless one of them wins, and remaining 8 drivers points are reset to 4000 points. Again, they duke it out for the next 3 races and the bottom 4 in points are eliminated, unless one of them wins, and the remaining 4 drivers points are reset to 5000 points. Those final 4 drivers will go into Homestead and whoever has the best finish wins the Championship. Simple right? If they would've implemented this system back in 2004 when the Chase started, Jimmie Johnson would only have 2 championships, Jamie McMurray would've been in the final 4 twice, and David Ragan (hahaha) would've made the Chase 3 times. The point of this is to try to put more emphasis on wins, however, if this would've been the case last year Dale Earnhardt Jr. would've won the Championship....without winning a race. I think one of the most interesting things to watch this year with the new Chase format will be the underfunded teams like Front Row Motorsports, Germain Racing, BK Racing, TBR, Swan Racing,
etc. trying to use any sort of strategy to get off sequence and try to steal a win. Might see a lot more fuel mileage wins this year.
the first 3 races, then they advance and the next lowest in points is eliminated. Then all drivers points are reset to 3000 and they duke it out for the next 3 races. Again, bottom 4 in points eliminated, unless one of them wins, and remaining 8 drivers points are reset to 4000 points. Again, they duke it out for the next 3 races and the bottom 4 in points are eliminated, unless one of them wins, and the remaining 4 drivers points are reset to 5000 points. Those final 4 drivers will go into Homestead and whoever has the best finish wins the Championship. Simple right? If they would've implemented this system back in 2004 when the Chase started, Jimmie Johnson would only have 2 championships, Jamie McMurray would've been in the final 4 twice, and David Ragan (hahaha) would've made the Chase 3 times. The point of this is to try to put more emphasis on wins, however, if this would've been the case last year Dale Earnhardt Jr. would've won the Championship....without winning a race. I think one of the most interesting things to watch this year with the new Chase format will be the underfunded teams like Front Row Motorsports, Germain Racing, BK Racing, TBR, Swan Racing, etc. trying to use any sort of strategy to get off sequence and try to steal a win. Might see a lot more fuel mileage wins this year.
Joining the Elite
And while Jimmie Johnson is trying to tie a record, two other drivers will be trying to do something
that no other driver in Nascar history has done...win the Nascar championship triple crown. Greg
Biffle and Austin Dillon will try to become the first driver ever to win a championship in the Truck Series, Nationwide Series, and Cup Series. Greg Biffle, who won the Truck title in 2000 and Nationwide in 2002, will be trying for a 12th time while Austin Dillon, Trucks in 2011 and Nationwide last year, will be making his first go at it, but seeing as Dillon is a rookie, I doubt he'll win the championship this year.
Biffle and Austin Dillon will try to become the first driver ever to win a championship in the Truck Series, Nationwide Series, and Cup Series. Greg Biffle, who won the Truck title in 2000 and Nationwide in 2002, will be trying for a 12th time while Austin Dillon, Trucks in 2011 and Nationwide last year, will be making his first go at it, but seeing as Dillon is a rookie, I doubt he'll win the championship this year.
Rookie Mania
Last year we had the most competive rookie class since 2007. That's not saying much since the competition between Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Danica Patrick wasn't really close at all. But we had two full-time rookies driving for two top-tier teams which we hadn't seen in quite some time. This year, however, we have the largest rookie class in 20 years. Currently we have 8 rookies confirmed to drive the full season and 2 more that will at least attempt the Daytona 500. The last time we had 8 drivers compete for Rookie of the Year was in 1994. Jeff Burton beat out Joe Nemechek, Steve Grissom, Loy Allen, John Andretti, Jeremy Mayfield, Mike Wallace, and Ward Burton. Not a bad rookie class, 5 of those drivers saw victory lane for a combined 37 victories (21 of them by Jeff Burton). I'm not sure if this years' rookie's are that talented, but let's review the new faces we'll be seeing on the track this year.
Of course the most highly decorated of the rookies is Austin Dillon. We've already touched on his successes in the other series', but the biggest thing about this season for Dillon is that he'll be driving the famed 3 car for Richard Childress Racing. It's been 13 years since we've seen the number 3 on track and it's return has been a bit controversial. There are a lot of people out there who believe the number should be retired and never used again, but there are also a lot of people who are excited to see it back on the track, me included. So hopefully Austin does the number 3 justice and has a good year, he's the odds on favorite to win the Rookie of the Year.
Now while Austin Dillon will be just the 3rd rookie to drive for Richard Childress since 2001 (Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer the other two), Kyle Larson will be the 7th rookie to drive for Chip Ganassi (Jason Leffler, Jamie McMurray, Casey Mears, Reed Sorenson, David Stremme, and Juan Pablo Montoya being the other 6). So you would assume that based off of team history that Dillon would have the major upper hand, but there is something about Kyle Larson that I think will make this an interesting battle. He's comes from a sprint car background very similar to Tony Stewart, Clint Bowyer, and Ryan Newman and I think he's going to turn a few heads. I still think it's way too early for him to be making the move to Cup, but I'm hoping he proves me wrong.
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| Ryan Truex (left) and Alex Bowman (right) will be teaming up for BK Racing this year. |
New Faces in New Places
Now that we have the rookies covered let's go over some of the other driver changes for the 2014 season.
Furniture Row Racing, coming off it's best season in it's existence, was able to snatch up Martin Truex Jr. after he was let go from Michael Waltrip Racing due to lack of sponsorship with NAPA pulling out. Hopefully they can replicate the success of last year and find victory lane again.
So with Truex and NAPA gone, MWR decided to change to #66 and run part-time (and testing) with Michael Waltrip and Jeff Burton, but a little more than a week ago they were able to put together a deal with Joe Nemechek to keep the car on track full-time. Also, Brian Vickers will now be running full-time in the #55.
And to round it all out, Ryan Newman replaces Jeff Burton in the #31 at RCR and brings with him the Quicken Loans sponsorship from SHR. This will make Ryan Newman the #1 driver at RCR, something he has never been in his Sprint Cup career. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do.Predictions
Jamie McMurray- I don't think Jamie will have a great year, but he won't have a bad year. Probably very similar to last year actually. With the new Chase format he definitely has a shot at making it, but I think he comes up short.
Austin Dillon- No doubt in my mind he wins Rookie of the Year, but won't win a race. Might get a top five or two. Probably get a couple top 10's. Very similar year to what Stenhouse had last year.
Marcos Ambrose- Marcos is hoping to rebound after a rough year last year. Every year I say that if Ambrose wins one of the road courses he has a shot at the Chase. Well this year it's almost certain. I think he starts off struggling, but starts getting back into his groove late in the season.
Danica Patrick- Still don't expect much from her. She might get a top 10 or two. Finishes lower in points this year due to there appearing to be more full-time drivers.
Casey Mears- He'll be mixing things up quite a bit this year to try and get a win and make the Chase. Probably has the best chance of all the lower-tier teams to do it.
Tony Stewart- Tony says his leg will be about 65% for Daytona. Don't think he'll have a problem there, but I think he is going to be in a lot of pain at the other tracks. I'm afraid he is going to struggle much like Denny Hamlin did last year.
Ricky Stenhouse- We'll see if Jack was holding him back last year, the Roush cars always seem to do better in even numbered years anyway. I'm not sure if Ricky is going to break out this year or we're going to see more of the same as last year...I'm leaning toward the latter.
Paul Menard- Could sneak into a win and make the Chase, or may just make it based off points if there aren't enough winners. My guess is if there are fewer than 14 winners, he's in.
David Ragan and David Gilliland- Both David's have a good chance of picking up wins at Daytona and Talladega, but I'm afraid even if they do, they'll be outside the top 30 in points after Richmond.
Kurt Busch- 4th team in 4 years for Kurt. I think it's going to take him a year to get used to not being the primary focus.
Kyle Larson- I don't know if there is any other driver I'm more excited to see than him. I think he has lots of ups and downs. Several top 10's, but several bottom 10's as well.
Aric Almirola- Could win a fuel mileage race, but doubt it. Finishes outside top 20 in points.
AJ Allmendinger- AJ is back full-time this year, too bad it's with a crummy team. I'd love to see him do well, but not expecting much from him.
Brian Vickers, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Newman, and Joey Logano- These four drivers will make history in becoming the first drivers to be eliminated from the Chase. A combined 4 wins between them on the season.
Martin Truex Jr., Jeff Gordon, Clint Bowyer, and Kasey Kahne- These drivers will be the last 4 eliminated. Kasey Kahne will be 4th in points after Phoenix, but will be knocked out due to another driver, 5th-8th in points, winning a race in the 3rd round. A combined 7 wins on the season between them.
That leaves Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, and Kevin Harvick battling it out for a winner best finish take all at Homestead. They will have 14 combined wins going into the final race and it will come down to a battle for 6th place on the track with the winner being..............................
Kevin Harvick!
Matt Kenseth 7th
Brad Keselowski 9th
Jimmie Johnson 22nd
There ya go. That's everything you need to know entering the season. Can't wait to sit back and enjoy.
Next Up: First Quarter Review, where we'll discuss Jimmie Johnson's dominate start, Dale Jr.'s point lead, and Jeff Gordon's early struggles. Until then, HAPPY RACIN'!!!!
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