Rising Up
With Kasey Kahne falling out, somebody has to take his spot. Over the last nine races, I don't think anyone has improved as much as Tony Stewart. He has a win, 4 top 5's, and 5 top 10's in the last 7 races. Granted he still has some kinks to work out. I think Tony is back in Chase form. I still don't think he's set to contend for the championship yet, but this is the time of year that he usually heats up. Keep your eye on him.
Carl Edwards is another one who has improved, but in a different way. Carl actually ran better in the first 9 than in the second 9, but he is running so much better than expected that I believe his stock is rising. A little more consistency out of this group and they may be in the mix at the end.
And how about Jeff Burton. No, he won't make the Chase, but he has been surprisingly solid over the past few weeks. It looked like Jeff was on his way out the door at Childress and wouldn't even finish top 20 in points, but the way he's been looking lately, he should no doubt finish top 20 and maybe even snag a top 15 spot.
Free Falling
As reported earlier, Kasey Kahne has gone from championship hopeful, to Chase hopeless. If this team doesn't get it together quick, they will not make the Chase. Kasey needs to win another race or two if he wants a shot.
Denny Hamlin is another. Since his return at Talladega, Denny has 3 DNF's, 5 finishes outside the top 30, and 6 outside the top 20....and that's only 9 races. Granted the other 3 were all top 10's, he went from Chase longshot, to Chase no-shot. I thought he would be capable of winning some races and getting into the top 20 and maybe get a wild card, but now I don't even think he'll crack the top 20 this season. Prediction: 23 in points.
Even though he didn't have far to fall, Marcos Ambrose has been lackluster as well. I do think he'll win at Watkins Glen, but unless he really picks it up, I don't think he'll be in the top 20 after Richmond.
Rookie Watch
Now that I've lowered my expectation of Ricky Stenhouse, he's running exactly where I'm expecting him to. I think he will finish up about 20th in points. Something to watch out for though. We are starting to hit these tracks for the 2nd time now and it will be fun to see how Ricky improves. He tied his career best finish of 11th last week, wouldn't be surprised to see him get some top 10's in the second half. And believe it or not, Danica is actually exceeding my expectations and I think might even finish INSIDE the top 25 in points.
In the Mix for Six?
Jimmie Johnson certainly looks like he should be making some space in his trophy case, but let's take a closer look. Jimmie is setting a blistering pace, and it doesn't look like he'll let up anytime soon, but where has he struggled? Michigan (28th), Charlotte (22nd), Bristol (22nd), and Dover (17th). Charlotte and Dover are both Chase tracks. Last year he really struggled at Talladega and Phoenix as well, but his big Achilles heel is Homestead, where he has finished 36th and 32nd the last 2 seasons. That's 5 of the 10 tracks in the Chase that he has not fared well on as of late. Sure he's had top 5's and Phoenix and Talladega this year, but I don't think you can afford to have more than 3, maybe not even 2, finishes outside the top 10 in the Chase. This Ought to be Fun
The 3 guys I'm really looking forward to watching in the 2nd half are Joey Logano, Juan Pablo Montoya, and Kurt Busch. All 3 guys have had strong runs this year and have come close to winning, but due to some bad luck haven't quite been able to pull it off. Joey and Kurt can still potentially make the Chase, but I'm not thinking they will. So I'm thinking these guys are all going to go out there and drive hard to try and win some races and I wouldn't be surprised if one of them, if not all of them, wind up in victory lane at some point this year.Final Standings
Unfortunately I don't think we're going to have a close Chase battle going into Richmond and our 12 man field will most likely be set after Atlanta. 3 guys I think will be duking it out at Homestead for the Championship.
12. Dale Earnhardt Jr. -93
11. Martin Truex Jr. -92
10. Greg Biffle -74
9. Kyle Busch -59
8. Jeff Gordon -53
7. Tony Stewart -46
6. Matt Kenseth -37
5. Carl Edwards -31
4. Kevin Harvick -28
3. Brad Keselowski -4
2. Jimmie Johnson -4
1. Clint Bowyer
Clint Bowyer's consistency is going to pay off for him in the end. I'm afraid Brad and Jimmie will just have too many issues. See y'all in the Chase.
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