First Quarter Review

Well, we had a lot of questions going into this season. How would the new car do? Can Brad back it up? Will Jimmie bounce back? How will Joey and Kenseth do in new rides? Danica? Ricky? yada yada yada.

The answers to those questions are: Eh? Looks like he could. Looks like he could. Obviously pretty good. Eh? Hmmmmm..... yada yada yada.

But 9 races in, we're starting to get a feel of how the season may turn out. Let's take a look, shall we? (see if you can catch the theme)

THE GOOD

We must start out with HUGE attaboys to Paul Menard, Aric Almirola, and Jamie McMurray.  1/4 of the way through the season they sit 9th, 11th, and 12th in points respectively, and if the Chase were to start today, Menard and Almirola would be in. Pretty good considering I projected them to finish 17th, 22nd, and 21st in points. Now the question is can they hold on for 17 more races? I think not. I think Menard will put up a good fight, but they are going to need some wins and I just don't see it in them this year.

Speaking of surprises, to me anyway, I must give my sincerest apologies to Kasey Kahne. I originally thought Kasey would have an off year and miss the chase, but I now think he is an instant title contender.

How many of you said Kevin Harvick was going to have a lame duck season and not win and not make the Chase? I DIDN'T! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Of course we still have a long way to go, but I have faith in this team and I think the way Menard is running is helping them out. Hell, even Jeff Burton looked good last week.

THE BAD

And now for the other end of the spectrum. We've been talking about the nice surprises and guys that are running well, but when you look at the disappointments, I think only one driver comes to mind, Tony Stewart. Our 3-time champ is off to an awful start this year having more post race confrontations (2) than top tens (1). He has a lot of work ahead of him to try to work his way back into Chase contention and I'm not sure if he can do it. He will need to win several races I believe to just get a wild card spot.

And I don't want to call him a disappointment, but I think I severely overestimated him, Ricky Stenhouse. I expected Ricky to jump out of the gate and run up front and win some races and make the Chase. I guess that wasn't fair of me. I'm thinking maybe that Jack is being a little reserved with him and letting him just get a feel for these cars, but watch out for Ricky in the second half of the season when we start visiting these tracks for the second time, then he make start making moves, but I don't think the Chase is in the picture for him.

THE UGLY

Now it's time to get down to what's going to happen for the rest of the season. I think when you look at some of the struggling guys, penalties, and injuries we've had so far this season, we are going to have a heck of a time watching these final chase positions fill up. Can Tony come back? Will Denny be able to win some races and get back in? Can Joey Logano and Matt Kenseth overcome their penalties? What about Menard, Almirola, and McMurray? I think we are going to have quite a bit of talent outside the top 10 this year and it will take multiple wins to clinch a wild card birth.

Last 4 in:
Dale Earnhardt Jr.- 7th in points, 44 points ahead of 11th, easily cruises into the Chase.
Jeff Gordon- 8th in points, 2 wins, 40 points ahead of 11th, easily cruises into Chase.
Kevin Harvick- 9th in points, 1 win, 23 points ahead of 11th, runs well in Richmond to secure Chase spot.
Martin Truex Jr.- 10th in points, 11 points ahead of 11th, barely hangs on to top 10 spot over 2 drivers with multiple wins.

First 4 out:
Ryan Newman- 14th in points, 1 win, comes up 41 points shy of top 10.
Paul Menard- 13th in points, comes up 29 points shy of top 10.
Tony Stewart- 16th in points, 2 wins, essentially comes up 16 points shy of a Chase birth with drivers with more wins just barely outside the top 10 and just barely in the top 20.
Denny Hamlin- 20th in points, 3 wins, essentially 11 points shy of a Chase birth with 11th and 12th in points also having 3 wins and each being just 11 points out of top 10.

So who are the 2 wild cards? Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth, tied for 11th in points with 3 wins each.

And the other 6 Chasers? Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, Clint Bowyer, Kasey Kahne, Greg Biffle, and Carl Edwards.

I originally thought this season would be a 2 man show between Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson, but I now think it will be a 4 man show adding Kasey Kahne and Clint Bowyer into the mix. Here are my projected final standings.

12. Martin Truex Jr. -110
11. Dale Earnhardt Jr. -104
10. Carl Edwards -85
9. Greg Biffle -73
8. Jeff Gordon -70
7. Kyle Busch -67
6. Matt Kenseth -54
5. Kevin Harvick -47
4. Kasey Kahne -34
3. Jimmie Johnson -34
2. Clint Bowyer -30
1. Brad Keselowski

So far I've seen nothing to change my mind on this year's champion, but we've still a long way to go. Stay tuned for what I'm sure to be an incredible season.