With a new season comes new predictions. This used to be titled "BOLD PREDICTIONS" and, as some of you may not remember, was shared via email with me and the commissioner. I decided to change it up a bit this year with RACEBOOK in full swing and share these with all of you. Let's get to it.
Jamie McMurray- Many people are wondering if we're going to see a resurgence of the 2010 Jamie Mac....no. I'm afraid we are going to see another dismal year for Jamie. I do think he'll pull off a win somewhere down the line this season, but will be so far outside the top 20, it won't matter.
Brad Keselowski- In 2009, Juan Montoya had a break out season and had many people predicting a huge 2010 season...didn't happen. In 2010, Jamie McMurray had a break out season leaving people to expect great things in 2011...didn't happen. In 2011 Brad Keselowski had a break out season and now some are even picking him to win the championship. But here's the difference. Early last season, I could not believe how Brad could dominate the Nationwide Series and absolutely suck at the cup level...then the summer came and he got hot. I don't think Brad will fall off this year, but I'm not expecting him to win as much, he will win, but not 4 times, maybe 2.
Kasey Kahne- This is one of the more intriguing storylines of the year. Kasey has never driven for a top tier team and has still remained competitive and even won 12 races driving for sub-par teams(Red Bull and Gillett/Evernham/Petty/Yates). So I am very excited to see what is to come for Kasey at Hendrick. Oh yeah, and Kenny Francis came with him, so he doesn't need to build rapport with a new crew chief. He will be an instant championship contender and will win at least 2 races this year.
Marcos Ambrose- Marcos made some strides last year. He's starting to run well on some of the larger tracks. I think we'll definitely see him win on one of the road courses, if not both. If he is able to win both Sonoma and Watkins Glen, he could sneak into a wild card spot. And don't look for him to be a push over if he does. He could finish as high as 8th in points.
Danica Patrick- Don't expect much from her. Only running 10 races and I'd be surprised if she pulls out a top 10 finish.
Denny Hamlin- It's a transition year for Denny as he teams up with Darian Grubb. Hamlin will not make the Chase outright and will have to rely on a wild card spot if he wants to get in. He will win a race, but will he win enough to get in?
Tony Stewart- It's a transition year for Stewart as well, bringing in Steve Addington to replace Grubb. Addington has been able to put up with both Busch brothers, so once he and Tony get settled, they'll start clicking off wins. Look for Tony to win 4 or 5 races and contend for the title.
Clint Bowyer- Huge transition for Bowyer joining Michael Waltrip Racing. MWR is coming off a horrible season and the wait of the corporation is on Clint's shoulders. He will have to contend for a wild card spot because I don't think he'll have the consistency to make the Chase outright, but I do expect him to win once or twice this year.
Greg Biffle- I'm afraid Biffle may have missed his chance. He doesn't seem to have the fight in him he once had. I'm hoping this changes this year, but I fear it won't. Biffle will be another driver contending for a wild card spot, but if he wins, I don't think it will be more than once.
Matt Kenseth- I'm feeling a Kenseth resurgence this year. He'll be right up there contending all season and win 2-4 times.
Kyle Busch- As much as I can't stand the guy, he still is going to win, and win alot. He will have more wins than anyone going into the chase, but won't be able to win down the stretch.
Joey Logano- Joey is in way over his head. He was brought up to Cup way too early and it has hurt him. I don't see him winning any races this year.
A.J. Allmendinger- My favorite storyline of the new season. How will A.J. do with Penske? He is coming off a career best 15th in points and going to a team that won twice last year. If he can win, he's in the Chase. If not, probably tieing a career best of 15th in points.
Jeff Gordon- Jeff is like a cockroach, he's never going away. He may not win many races, but he will win at least once. Interesting thing to keep an eye out for...with Jr.'s resurgence and Kasey Kahne coming over, will Gordon fall in their shadows and become the 4th guy at Hendrick?
Paul Menard- Don't get too excited, Menard fans. Paul isn't going to have the season he had last year. I'd be surprised if he won, except for maybe a restrictor plate race, even more surprised if he made the Chase.
Kevin Harvick- Huge heartbreak for Harv in the Chase last year. He'll bounce back and win 3 or 4 races, but will he be able to keep it together in the Chase?
Jeff Burton- This will be his last year at Childress. He's become irrelevant and with Austin Dillon coming up and several other young talented drivers, there is no room for an aging underperformer in a top tier organization.
David Ragan- Could still win a race at a superspeedway, but even if he won all 4, no way he's in the top 20 after Richmond and making the Chase.
David Reutimann- He should run at least 26 races, but doesn't look like he'll run the full season. Bummer. Don't think we'll be seeing too much of him, unless he brings out a caution.
Dave Blaney- Would love to see him contend again at 'Dega, don't see it happening though.
David Gilliland- Could be the most fun to watch on the superspeedways now that he has a decent drafting partner. Also could run up front at the road courses. Keep him in mind as a dark horse for those 6 races. Other than that, you won't see him.
Ryan Newman- Ryan is the Ricky Rudd of the next generation. Consistent. Doesn't win a whole lot. Kind of quiet. Doesn't surprise you if he wins. Doesn't surprise you if he finishes 20th. Not really a championship contender. Don't think he'll win this year, but might still make the Chase.
Juan Montoya- Montoya needs to win, and not just on a road course, but I don't think he can do it with that team. May win one of the road courses this year, but it won't be enough to make the Chase.
Aric Almirola- I really don't know what to expect from him. He hasn't been the same since his "first" Nationwide win. I'm hoping he can come out and run like Allmendinger did in that car, but he might be terrible. I do know this, if AJ couldn't win in that car...Aric won't either.
Bobby Labonte- There are 3 ways great drivers typically go out of the sport. The Ned Jarrett, Rusty Wallace way: Retire at the top of your game. The Bill Elliott, Terry Labonte, Mark Martin way: cut back to part-time before you become irrelevant. Then there is the Darrell Waltrip, Bobby Labonte way: Not being able to hang 'em up and pathetically going out there and finishing between 15th and 30th. Bobby's done. (FYI, Dale Jarrett was between the Bill/Terry/Mark way and the Darrell/Bobby way...so there are a few exceptions.)
Jimmie Johnson- It's hard to start winning championships again after you've stopped winning them, and very few have been able to win again after 2 years of not winning the title (Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt, Jeff Gordon, Terry Labonte, Tony Stewart). So if Jimmie wants to catch Dale and Richard, he needs to get back up on the horse this year and get it done. But I think the relationship with him and the mastermind behind all those titles (Chad Knaus) is dwindling. Before long, Chad is going to want to get off the box and get a promotion. We may be done seeing Jimmie win championships. On the other hand, I still expect him to win 3-5 times this year and have a shot at the title.
Kurt Busch- The best thing going for him right now is that he is getting Hendrick equipment, which will keep him competitive. I don't expect him to win, but he could very well run consistently enough to make the Chase.
Martin Truex- This is a make or break year for Truex. Mikey has shown by the firing of David Reutimann and the hiring of Clint Bowyer that he needs better production. If Truex doesn't turn things around and start running up front, he's gone.
Regan Smith- This team made huge strides last year, but it's foolish to expect a lot out of them. They still have a long way to go. I'm not going to say that they can't win, I just don't expect them to. Of course Regan will be a threat at the superspeedways, but he is no threat to make the Chase.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.- Jr. is going to have to win to make the Chase this year. He seems to be showing a lot of excitement for the upcoming season, an excitement that we haven't seen out of him in years. Plain and simple, if he wins, he makes the Chase, if he doesn't win, no Chase.
Carl Edwards- Carl is making the right moves toward a championship victory. He's learned(from getting his butt kicked by Tony and Jimmie) that he needs full devotion to the Cup series and he is pulling back from the Nationwide series. Carl could very well end up with more wins than anybody this year. As for the Chase, the chemistry that he and Bob Osborn have is rivaled by few others. The only Chase competing driver/crew chief combo that has been together longer than Carl and Bob, is Jimmie and Chad. Watch out for Carl.
So how will the points turn out? Here's your baker's dozen:
13th-Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1084 pts.
0 wins, 2 top 5's, 10 top 10's
Every time I bet on Jr. he doesn't come through. When I don't bet on him, he runs well.
12th Kurt Busch 2275 pts
0 wins, 5 top 5's, 12 top 10's
Consistency will get Kurt into the Chase, but he has no shot at the title.
11th Kyle Busch 2281 pts
6 wins, 12 top 5's, 17 top 10's
Busch will have the most wins during the regular season and therefore lead the points heading into the Chase. But a best finish of 5th and only 3 top 10's in the Chase will knock him out early
10th Ryan Newman 2285 pts.
0 wins, 9 top 5's, 16 top 10's
Newman solidly makes the chase with no wins, but falters in final 10 races with a best finish of 3rd and just 3 top 10's.
9th Jeff Gordon 2300 pts.
1 win, 12 top 5's, 19 top 10's
Gordon will be extremely consistent and win the regular season. Will start the Chase off right with 2 top 10's, but 5 finishes of 20th or worse will kill his title hopes.
8th Denny Hamlin 2301 pts.
1 win, 5 top 5's, 11 top 10's
Denny will squeak into the Chase with the last wild card spot, edging out Clint Bowyer. He'll get off to a rocky start in the Chase, but finish strong.
7th Brad Keselowski 2334 pts.
1 win, 7 top 5's, 14 top 10's
The pressure will get to Brad a little bit during the Chase with just 4 top 10's and a best finish of 2nd.
6th Jimmie Johnson 2340 pts.
4 wins, 17 top 5's, 21 top 10's
Jimmie is going to stumble out of the gate in the Chase and get too far behind to catch up. 4 top 10's and 1 win in the Chase.
5th Kevin Harvick 2346 pts.
3 wins, 11 top 5's, 20 top 10's
Harvick will also stumble out of the gate finishing outside the top 20 in 2 of the first 4 Chase races, but will recover with 3 top 5's and 1 win in the final 6 races.
4th Matt Kenseth 2354 pts.
3 wins, 15 top 5's, 20 top 10's
Kenseth will be extremely hit or miss in the chase. He will have 6 top 10's, including a win, but then he will finish 18th or worse in the other 4.
3rd Kasey Kahne 2356 pts.
2 wins, 8 top 5's, 18 top 10's
A win and 7 top 10's will keep Kasey in contention throughout the Chase, but a worst finish of 31st is what will prevent him from winning it all.
2nd Tony Stewart 2387 pts.
4 wins, 11 top 5's, 24 top 10's
Much like Kasey, Tony will be extremely consistent in the Chase with a win and 8 top 10's, but a worst finish of 29th will keep him from the top.
1st Carl Edwards 2433 pts.
6 wins, 19 top 5's, 28 top 10's
In the most dominating Chase performance ever, Carl will run away with the Championship picking up 4 wins in the Chase along with 9 top 10's and a worst finish of 7th.
So there you go, time to head to Vegas and place your bets. Good luck, and Happy Racing!
Jamie McMurray- Many people are wondering if we're going to see a resurgence of the 2010 Jamie Mac....no. I'm afraid we are going to see another dismal year for Jamie. I do think he'll pull off a win somewhere down the line this season, but will be so far outside the top 20, it won't matter.
Brad Keselowski- In 2009, Juan Montoya had a break out season and had many people predicting a huge 2010 season...didn't happen. In 2010, Jamie McMurray had a break out season leaving people to expect great things in 2011...didn't happen. In 2011 Brad Keselowski had a break out season and now some are even picking him to win the championship. But here's the difference. Early last season, I could not believe how Brad could dominate the Nationwide Series and absolutely suck at the cup level...then the summer came and he got hot. I don't think Brad will fall off this year, but I'm not expecting him to win as much, he will win, but not 4 times, maybe 2.
Kasey Kahne- This is one of the more intriguing storylines of the year. Kasey has never driven for a top tier team and has still remained competitive and even won 12 races driving for sub-par teams(Red Bull and Gillett/Evernham/Petty/Yates). So I am very excited to see what is to come for Kasey at Hendrick. Oh yeah, and Kenny Francis came with him, so he doesn't need to build rapport with a new crew chief. He will be an instant championship contender and will win at least 2 races this year.
Marcos Ambrose- Marcos made some strides last year. He's starting to run well on some of the larger tracks. I think we'll definitely see him win on one of the road courses, if not both. If he is able to win both Sonoma and Watkins Glen, he could sneak into a wild card spot. And don't look for him to be a push over if he does. He could finish as high as 8th in points.
Danica Patrick- Don't expect much from her. Only running 10 races and I'd be surprised if she pulls out a top 10 finish.
Denny Hamlin- It's a transition year for Denny as he teams up with Darian Grubb. Hamlin will not make the Chase outright and will have to rely on a wild card spot if he wants to get in. He will win a race, but will he win enough to get in?
Tony Stewart- It's a transition year for Stewart as well, bringing in Steve Addington to replace Grubb. Addington has been able to put up with both Busch brothers, so once he and Tony get settled, they'll start clicking off wins. Look for Tony to win 4 or 5 races and contend for the title.
Clint Bowyer- Huge transition for Bowyer joining Michael Waltrip Racing. MWR is coming off a horrible season and the wait of the corporation is on Clint's shoulders. He will have to contend for a wild card spot because I don't think he'll have the consistency to make the Chase outright, but I do expect him to win once or twice this year.
Greg Biffle- I'm afraid Biffle may have missed his chance. He doesn't seem to have the fight in him he once had. I'm hoping this changes this year, but I fear it won't. Biffle will be another driver contending for a wild card spot, but if he wins, I don't think it will be more than once.
Matt Kenseth- I'm feeling a Kenseth resurgence this year. He'll be right up there contending all season and win 2-4 times.
Kyle Busch- As much as I can't stand the guy, he still is going to win, and win alot. He will have more wins than anyone going into the chase, but won't be able to win down the stretch.
Joey Logano- Joey is in way over his head. He was brought up to Cup way too early and it has hurt him. I don't see him winning any races this year.
A.J. Allmendinger- My favorite storyline of the new season. How will A.J. do with Penske? He is coming off a career best 15th in points and going to a team that won twice last year. If he can win, he's in the Chase. If not, probably tieing a career best of 15th in points.
Jeff Gordon- Jeff is like a cockroach, he's never going away. He may not win many races, but he will win at least once. Interesting thing to keep an eye out for...with Jr.'s resurgence and Kasey Kahne coming over, will Gordon fall in their shadows and become the 4th guy at Hendrick?
Paul Menard- Don't get too excited, Menard fans. Paul isn't going to have the season he had last year. I'd be surprised if he won, except for maybe a restrictor plate race, even more surprised if he made the Chase.
Kevin Harvick- Huge heartbreak for Harv in the Chase last year. He'll bounce back and win 3 or 4 races, but will he be able to keep it together in the Chase?
Jeff Burton- This will be his last year at Childress. He's become irrelevant and with Austin Dillon coming up and several other young talented drivers, there is no room for an aging underperformer in a top tier organization.
David Ragan- Could still win a race at a superspeedway, but even if he won all 4, no way he's in the top 20 after Richmond and making the Chase.
David Reutimann- He should run at least 26 races, but doesn't look like he'll run the full season. Bummer. Don't think we'll be seeing too much of him, unless he brings out a caution.
Dave Blaney- Would love to see him contend again at 'Dega, don't see it happening though.
David Gilliland- Could be the most fun to watch on the superspeedways now that he has a decent drafting partner. Also could run up front at the road courses. Keep him in mind as a dark horse for those 6 races. Other than that, you won't see him.
Ryan Newman- Ryan is the Ricky Rudd of the next generation. Consistent. Doesn't win a whole lot. Kind of quiet. Doesn't surprise you if he wins. Doesn't surprise you if he finishes 20th. Not really a championship contender. Don't think he'll win this year, but might still make the Chase.
Juan Montoya- Montoya needs to win, and not just on a road course, but I don't think he can do it with that team. May win one of the road courses this year, but it won't be enough to make the Chase.
Aric Almirola- I really don't know what to expect from him. He hasn't been the same since his "first" Nationwide win. I'm hoping he can come out and run like Allmendinger did in that car, but he might be terrible. I do know this, if AJ couldn't win in that car...Aric won't either.
Bobby Labonte- There are 3 ways great drivers typically go out of the sport. The Ned Jarrett, Rusty Wallace way: Retire at the top of your game. The Bill Elliott, Terry Labonte, Mark Martin way: cut back to part-time before you become irrelevant. Then there is the Darrell Waltrip, Bobby Labonte way: Not being able to hang 'em up and pathetically going out there and finishing between 15th and 30th. Bobby's done. (FYI, Dale Jarrett was between the Bill/Terry/Mark way and the Darrell/Bobby way...so there are a few exceptions.)
Jimmie Johnson- It's hard to start winning championships again after you've stopped winning them, and very few have been able to win again after 2 years of not winning the title (Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt, Jeff Gordon, Terry Labonte, Tony Stewart). So if Jimmie wants to catch Dale and Richard, he needs to get back up on the horse this year and get it done. But I think the relationship with him and the mastermind behind all those titles (Chad Knaus) is dwindling. Before long, Chad is going to want to get off the box and get a promotion. We may be done seeing Jimmie win championships. On the other hand, I still expect him to win 3-5 times this year and have a shot at the title.
Kurt Busch- The best thing going for him right now is that he is getting Hendrick equipment, which will keep him competitive. I don't expect him to win, but he could very well run consistently enough to make the Chase.
Martin Truex- This is a make or break year for Truex. Mikey has shown by the firing of David Reutimann and the hiring of Clint Bowyer that he needs better production. If Truex doesn't turn things around and start running up front, he's gone.
Regan Smith- This team made huge strides last year, but it's foolish to expect a lot out of them. They still have a long way to go. I'm not going to say that they can't win, I just don't expect them to. Of course Regan will be a threat at the superspeedways, but he is no threat to make the Chase.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.- Jr. is going to have to win to make the Chase this year. He seems to be showing a lot of excitement for the upcoming season, an excitement that we haven't seen out of him in years. Plain and simple, if he wins, he makes the Chase, if he doesn't win, no Chase.
Carl Edwards- Carl is making the right moves toward a championship victory. He's learned(from getting his butt kicked by Tony and Jimmie) that he needs full devotion to the Cup series and he is pulling back from the Nationwide series. Carl could very well end up with more wins than anybody this year. As for the Chase, the chemistry that he and Bob Osborn have is rivaled by few others. The only Chase competing driver/crew chief combo that has been together longer than Carl and Bob, is Jimmie and Chad. Watch out for Carl.
So how will the points turn out? Here's your baker's dozen:
13th-Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1084 pts.
0 wins, 2 top 5's, 10 top 10's
Every time I bet on Jr. he doesn't come through. When I don't bet on him, he runs well.
12th Kurt Busch 2275 pts
0 wins, 5 top 5's, 12 top 10's
Consistency will get Kurt into the Chase, but he has no shot at the title.
11th Kyle Busch 2281 pts
6 wins, 12 top 5's, 17 top 10's
Busch will have the most wins during the regular season and therefore lead the points heading into the Chase. But a best finish of 5th and only 3 top 10's in the Chase will knock him out early
10th Ryan Newman 2285 pts.
0 wins, 9 top 5's, 16 top 10's
Newman solidly makes the chase with no wins, but falters in final 10 races with a best finish of 3rd and just 3 top 10's.
9th Jeff Gordon 2300 pts.
1 win, 12 top 5's, 19 top 10's
Gordon will be extremely consistent and win the regular season. Will start the Chase off right with 2 top 10's, but 5 finishes of 20th or worse will kill his title hopes.
8th Denny Hamlin 2301 pts.
1 win, 5 top 5's, 11 top 10's
Denny will squeak into the Chase with the last wild card spot, edging out Clint Bowyer. He'll get off to a rocky start in the Chase, but finish strong.
7th Brad Keselowski 2334 pts.
1 win, 7 top 5's, 14 top 10's
The pressure will get to Brad a little bit during the Chase with just 4 top 10's and a best finish of 2nd.
6th Jimmie Johnson 2340 pts.
4 wins, 17 top 5's, 21 top 10's
Jimmie is going to stumble out of the gate in the Chase and get too far behind to catch up. 4 top 10's and 1 win in the Chase.
5th Kevin Harvick 2346 pts.
3 wins, 11 top 5's, 20 top 10's
Harvick will also stumble out of the gate finishing outside the top 20 in 2 of the first 4 Chase races, but will recover with 3 top 5's and 1 win in the final 6 races.
4th Matt Kenseth 2354 pts.
3 wins, 15 top 5's, 20 top 10's
Kenseth will be extremely hit or miss in the chase. He will have 6 top 10's, including a win, but then he will finish 18th or worse in the other 4.
3rd Kasey Kahne 2356 pts.
2 wins, 8 top 5's, 18 top 10's
A win and 7 top 10's will keep Kasey in contention throughout the Chase, but a worst finish of 31st is what will prevent him from winning it all.
2nd Tony Stewart 2387 pts.
4 wins, 11 top 5's, 24 top 10's
Much like Kasey, Tony will be extremely consistent in the Chase with a win and 8 top 10's, but a worst finish of 29th will keep him from the top.
1st Carl Edwards 2433 pts.
6 wins, 19 top 5's, 28 top 10's
In the most dominating Chase performance ever, Carl will run away with the Championship picking up 4 wins in the Chase along with 9 top 10's and a worst finish of 7th.
So there you go, time to head to Vegas and place your bets. Good luck, and Happy Racing!
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