There's a rumble down in Daytona as they get ready to run the Rolex 24 Hours, which means we are just a few short weeks away from Speedweeks and the start of a new season of NASCAR racing. I got Days of Thunder in the DVD player, a perfect set of match tires, an ice cream cone for my crew chief on pit road, and I am ready to go! Rev up those engines, boys and girls, and let's look ahead to what's to come this season....
Driver Carousel
Every offseason we have a bit of driver movement, but this year we had a whole slew of driver changes, thanks in part to the retirement of 3 of NASCAR's biggest stars (Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth, and Danica Patrick.Hendrick Motorsports has a brand new look and they have gotten much younger as well. Check out the average age of the HMS drivers over the past 4 years:
2015- 39.25
2016- 34.25
2017- 35.25
2018- 27
42 year old Jimmie Johnson is now the old man at HMS with the 2nd eldest being Alex Bowman, who turns 25 in April. Bowman's strong showing as a relief driver for Dale Jr. in 2016 got him a contract with Hendrick Motorsports for 2017. While he didn't do much racing, he did serve as the team's test driver and spent a lot of time in the simulator. He did get to make 2 Xfinity Series starts with Hendrick ally Chip Ganassi Racing, winning in his first start of the year at Charlotte. Those skills have now gotten him behind the wheel of the #88 that was vacated by Dale Earnhardt Jr.. This is a huge opportunity for Bowman, but it's important to note that he is not a rookie. He has two full-time seasons under his belt with BK Racing and Tommy Baldwin Racing. That being said, his best 4 finishes, including his 2 career Top 10's, all came during his 10 race stint with Hendrick in 2016.
Yes, that's right, Chase Elliott is no longer driving the #24. Elliott has made a number change and a number change only, the team is still the team from last year's #24 and William Byron will have the former #5 team. Chase's new number is 9 and there is a lot of family history there. He won his first K&N East race, ARCA race, and Xfinity race driving the #9. In fact he won 4 Xfinity races and a championship in the #9. Not only that, but Bill Elliott, Chase's father, won 37 of his 39 Cup races with the #9, including his 1988 championship. Perhaps the new number will give Chase that extra bit of luck he's been needing to finally break into victory lane at the Cup level.
Team Penske has a bit of a new look as well as they expand from a 2 car team to a 3 car team with Ryan Blaney officially joining the fold. Blaney has been under contract with Penske for several years, but the last 2 seasons he's been racing for the Wood Brothers, a Penske satellite team. Now Blaney will pilot the #12 Ford with sponsorship from Menards and several others and team up with Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano. The hole at Wood Brothers is being filled up by Paul Menard, which really was no surprise considering his family's involvement with Team Penske as a sponsor in both the Cup Series and the Indy Car Series. This is a huge break for Menard as the 37 year old veteran will be getting behind the wheel of the best equipment he has ever had in his Cup career. The Wood Brothers are looking for their 100th career victory. It will be interesting to see if Paul can deliver that.
The void at Richard Petty Motorsports is being filled by Rookie of the Year candidate Darrell "Bubba" Wallace, Jr.. Bubba, another former JGR development driver, made his Cup debut last year filling in for the injured Almirola and ran a total of 4 races, improving his finish in each one, capping it off with an 11th place run at Kentucky. RPM and Wallace hit it off and will run the full 2018 season together. That's not the only change at RPM, though. The team has switched from Ford to Chevy and have developed an alliance with Richard Childress Racing who, after the departure of Paul Menard, have cut down to a 2 car team. RPM's resources paired with RCR's resources of the 3rd team they no longer have could make this the best year the #43 team has seen in a long time. And if you believe Ryan Newman, these new Chevy Camaros are a huge step up for the Chevy program and some believe that they will knock Toyota off their pedestal.
Speaking of Toyota, Erik Jones is the new driver of JGR's #20, replacing Matt Kenseth. The 2nd year driver had an impressive rookie season, particularly in the 2nd half, with Furniture Row Racing, but will now get to join the big team. Big things are expected of Jones, who has been dominant at every level of racing leading up to this, and the question is not if, but when he will get his first career win. My guess it's not too far off.
A couple of other smaller moves have occurred as well. With Kasey Kahne losing his ride at HMS he moves to Leavine Family Racing to drive the #95 Chevy with support from RCR. Michael McDowell has moved from LFR to driver the #34 Ford for Front Row Motorsports, replacing Landon Cassill. While this may seem like a lateral move on paper, Ford has announced that they are increasing there involvement with FRM and this should be a step up for McDowell. Rick Ware Racing has announced they will run full-time with their #51 with Ray Black Jr. running for Rookie of the Year. StarCom Racing, a new team partly owned by Derrike Cope, has acquired the charter from the #27 team and will run the full season with their #00 and Cope as the driver. And last but not least, Danica Patrick will attempt the Daytona 500 driving for Premium Motorsports and after partnering with Tommy Baldwin Racing they have changed their number from 15 to 7.
Schedule Changes
NASCAR hasn't really had a major schedule change since 2015 when it moved the Darlington race from its spring date back to it's original Labor Day slot and there hasn't been a new track added since 2011 when Kentucky was added to the schedule and they removed the 2nd Fontana race. This year, however, there are quite a few shakeups to the schedule, including 3 new tracks in the playoffs.
The first change is Chicago, which has been the opening race of the Chase/Playoffs for the last 7 years, is moving back to it's original date in early July, right before we head back to Daytona.
The next big move is that the Brickyard 400, which has been run either the 1st week of August or the last week of July since it's inaugural race in 1994, will now move to early September, right after the Southern 500 at Darlington, and will be the last race of the regular season. This will be the first time since the inception of the Chase in 2004 that the cutoff race will not be held at Richmond.
The 1st round of the playoffs this year will be 100% different than in years past with the opening race being at Las Vegas. NASCAR has been running at Vegas once a year for the last 20 years and this will be the first time they go their twice. The 2nd Vegas race replaces 
the 2nd Loudon race. While I'm not too happy about replacing a one of a kind, 1-mile track in favor of another cookie cutter 1.5-mile track, I will say that of the cookie cutters, Vegas seems to have a history of exciting finishes (i.e. Jr. running out of gas while leading on the final lap; Kyle Busch and Joey Logano colliding on the last corner and fisticuffs erupting on pit road afterword; etc.). From there they will go to Richmond, which will be in the playoffs for the first time and adds a 2nd short track to the playoffs (a move that I LOVE!). Next will be to Charlotte, which moves from the 2nd round to the 1st round, but there is one MAJOR difference....they won't be running the 1.5-mile oval, they'll be running the infield road course which has been dubbed the "Roval". The track runs most of the oval while also cutting through the infield which is filled with sudden elevation changes and many blind corners. Fans have been asking for a road course in the Playoffs for years, and although it's not a traditional road course, if it puts on a good show it could lead to more road courses down the road.
the 2nd Loudon race. While I'm not too happy about replacing a one of a kind, 1-mile track in favor of another cookie cutter 1.5-mile track, I will say that of the cookie cutters, Vegas seems to have a history of exciting finishes (i.e. Jr. running out of gas while leading on the final lap; Kyle Busch and Joey Logano colliding on the last corner and fisticuffs erupting on pit road afterword; etc.). From there they will go to Richmond, which will be in the playoffs for the first time and adds a 2nd short track to the playoffs (a move that I LOVE!). Next will be to Charlotte, which moves from the 2nd round to the 1st round, but there is one MAJOR difference....they won't be running the 1.5-mile oval, they'll be running the infield road course which has been dubbed the "Roval". The track runs most of the oval while also cutting through the infield which is filled with sudden elevation changes and many blind corners. Fans have been asking for a road course in the Playoffs for years, and although it's not a traditional road course, if it puts on a good show it could lead to more road courses down the road.What Lies Ahead
Over the past 4 seasons we've seen veteran drivers such as Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Matt Kenseth leave the sport. In their place we've seen young, emerging, potential superstars such as Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Erik Jones, Ryan Blaney, Daniel Suarez, William Byron, Bubba Wallace, and Alex Bowman take their places. With many more young, talented racers moving their way up the ranks it brings up the question as to who will be the next to leave and who will be next to break into NASCAR's top level?
At this point the latter question seems to have a very simple answer....Christopher Bell. The 23 year old from Norman, Oklahoma is a star in the making and seems to be following in the footsteps of Erik Jones. Bell won 5 races in the Truck Series last year on his way to the championship and in 8 Xfinity starts picked up a win, 3 Top 5's, and 5 Top 10's. He is already considered the championship favorite in the Xfinity Series this year and Joe Gibbs has been known to move his star drivers up quickly (See Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, etc.). So let's say Bell has an outstanding year in Xfinity and is ready to move up in 2019...where does he go? JGR already has a solid lineup with Busch, Hamlin, Jones and Suarez. Potentially you could see Suarez go if he doesn't start winning races immediately, but Gibbs has not been known to give up on young talent that quickly (See Joey Logano, J.J. Yeley, etc.). They could strike up a deal with Furniture Row again and they could bring back the #77 car, but they sold that charter and would have to acquire a new one, which probably wouldn't be all that difficult. If they can't find a home for Bell in 2019 there will be plenty of suitors lined of to snatch him up. But again, if you look at the history of JGR and their young drivers, they probably won't let that happen. Check out the list below of young development drivers that have won races for JGR in the Xfinity Series:
Denny Hamlin
Aric Almirola (sort of)
Joey Logano
Erik Jones
Daniel Suarez
Christopher Bell
Ryan Preece
If you take out Bell and Preece since they haven't made it to the Cup level yet, only 1 of those drivers didn't go on to race for JGR in the Cup Series (and he only partially won that race). Now it isn't likely that Preece will make it to the Cup level next season as he's only running part-time for JGR this year, so that's another story, but I'd be hard pressed to believe that Gibbs will let Bell slip away, so something has to give. Kyle Busch's contract is up after 2019, but with the amount of races he wins and the fact that he's won a championship makes it unlikely that they'll get rid of him. Denny Hamlin, however, has not yet been able to pull off a championship and has failed to finish inside the Top 5 in points the past 3 years. He still has 2 years left on his contract after this season, but that didn't stop Hendrick from replacing Kasey Kahne with William Byron. Whatever happens, it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
There are many drivers whose contracts expire at the end of 2018, including Clint Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, and Martin Truex Jr.. Truex will certainly be the most sought after of the bunch, but he is also probably the most loyal driver in the garage and will undoubtedly re-sign with Furniture Row. Saying I'd be shocked if Chase Elliott signed anywhere else would be an understatement, so that would make Kyle Larson the most intriguing free agent of 2018. Although he also stated last year that Chip Ganassi gave him a ride based off of his talent and didn't ask for funding like every other team, so for that he remains loyal to them and is unlikely to leave. His teammate, Jamie McMurray, on the other hand has been hinting at retirement for several months now and this could very well be his final season. Should he leave and they are not able to sway Christopher Bell away from JGR, it's possible they could go to a guy like Tyler Reddick, who won an Xfinity race for them last year. Reddick is driving for JR Motorsports this season (basically a Hendrick team), but the 2 teams are close allies (remember Alex Bowman drove for CGR last year) and Hendrick is likely set until Jimmie Johnson's contract ends at the end of 2020, so Reddick could re-unite with his former team. CGR is also running John Hunter Nemechek part-time in the Xfinity Series this year, but with it being his first season in the series and only running part-time, it's unlikely he'll be ready for Cup in 2019.
This may be a make or break year for both Clint Bowyer and Kurt Busch. Despite winning the Daytona 500 and making the playoffs last year, Kurt's contract renewal still came down to the last minute for this year. Busch, who turns 40 in August, is now the 5th oldest driver in the series behind Johnson, Harvick, McMurray, and Newman and with the Monster Energy sponsorship up in the air after this season, he may have limited options for 2019. Clint Bowyer had a pretty miserable first year at SHR and if he doesn't show improvement this year he may be on the outs as well. SHR has a pretty talented young driver in Cole Custer who picked up his first career Xfinity win at Homestead last year and just so happens to be the son of SHR president Joe Custer. My guess is that Cole will replace one of these 2 drivers in 2019.
Ryan Newman had the big win at Phoenix last year, but it was a gamble on fuel mileage that paid off. RCR has made major cutbacks to both it's Cup and Xfinity programs this year and if there isn't improvement made on the track there is likely to be changes in driving personnel and, let's face it, Richard Childress is not likely to fire his grandson, Austin Dillon. If Newman doesn't produce this year he may clearly be replaced Childress's other grandson, Ty Dillon, who has been waiting in the wings for several years driving for RCR's satellite team, Germain Racing. Daniel Hemric has also been promising for RCR in the Xfinity Series and has been knocking on the door of his first career victory. They have also brought in the talented Matt Tifft, a protégé of Ken Schrader, as well as Shane Lee (a 24 year old who has 9 Top 5's in 30 ARCA starts) and Jeb Burton (25 year old son of Ward Burton) to drive their Xfinity cars as well.
BOLD Predictions
Time for everyone's favorite part, my annual BOLD Predictions. Let's start off with the lower tier series'.
Todd Gilliland will win Rookie of the Year in the Truck Series.
Noah Gragson will win the Truck Series championship.
Christopher Bell will become the 3rd driver in 5 years to win Rookie of the Year AND the Championship in the Xfinity Series.
Jamie McMurray will go winless and retire at the end of the season.
Kevin Harvick will win the regular season and get the 15 playoff points for doing so.
Trevor Bayne will be released from Roush-Fenway Racing at the end of the year and replaced with Chase Briscoe.
Danica Patrick will go out of NASCAR the same way she came into NASCAR: Driving the #7 Go Daddy Chevy with Tony Eury Jr. as her crew chief, and wrecking with Ricky Stenhouse halfway through the race.
Saying Chase Elliott will get his first career victory isn't very BOLD, but saying that Chase Elliott will NOT win this year, is!
Ryan Blaney also will not win a race this year.
Neither will Ty Dillon, or anyone at RCR for that matter.
Erik Jones WILL get his first career victory this year.
Paul Menard will deliver the Wood Brothers their 100th win by winning one of the restrictor plate races.
Joey Logano will be the comeback driver of the year, winning early and often.
William Byron will win multiple races and be the Rookie of the Year.
Kyle Larson will struggle the 1st half of the season, but turn up the heat and win several races in the 2nd half.
Many people believe that Jimmie Johnson will win his 8th championship and retire. That won't happen, but this will be his last season with Chad Knaus as crew chief.
Furniture Row will bring back the #77 for Christopher Bell in 2019.
Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. will win more races than any other driver and more races than all the Chevy drivers combined.
Your 2018 Playoff drivers will be:
Kurt Busch
Kyle Busch
William Byron
Chase Elliott
Denny Hamlin
Kevin Harvick
Jimmie Johnson
Erik Jones
Brad Keselowski
Kyle Larson
Joey Logano
Jamie McMurray
Paul Menard
Ryan Newman
Daniel Suarez
Martin Truex, Jr.
While there will be a lot of talk of the youth movement and the drivers under 30 being poised to takeover the reigns, they are not ready to win the championship yet and the Championship 4 drivers will be the same as 2017: Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Martin Truex Jr.
The driver that wins the title will be winning it for the 2nd time (Tricked you. All 4 of those drivers have 1 championship thus far.)
And your 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series champion will be........
Kevin Harvick!
It's bound to be another fun and exciting season! Until next time....Happy Racin' Y'all!
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