M&M's Halfway Report Presented by Budweiser

18 races down, 18 to go. We have reached the halfway point of the racing season and are gearing up for the final run to the Chase. We 8 races at 8 uniquely different race tracks to wrap up the "regular season". Things are going to get fun as the team scramble to lock up Chase bids and add crucial bonus points. But before we dive into that, let's take a look at some of the hottest topics right now.

Battle Royale

At first I thought it was just media hype, making a story out of nothing just to get people's attention, but as the week goes on, the feud between Danica Patrick and Dale Earnhardt Jr. is becoming more of a truth. In case you missed it, Dale Jr. was battling brake issues at Kentucky this past weekend. Having to constantly pump the brakes entering the turn to slow down, Jr. had little option but to run the high line around the track because he could not slow down enough to run a lower line and also if the brakes did fully go away, it's less of an impact hitting the wall from the high line.

Late in the race going down the backstretch Danica made the pass on Jr. Not knowing of his brake problems, Danica took the high line into the turn. Earnhardt (as seen from the in car camera) pumped the brakes several times, but the pedal went straight to the floor. In an effort to avoid Danica he tried tried taking a lower line. Unfortunately he was carrying way too much speed, slid up the track and ran into the back of Patrick, sending her into the wall and thus ruining her night. Despite Jr. apologizing on the radio and send his spotter to tell her's about the brake issues, she fumed, cursed at him over the radio and showed her displeasure by running into the back of him on pit road. 

In an interview after the race, Earnhardt (who Danica drove for for 2 years in what is now the Xfinity Series) didn't seemed concerned, saying they were good friends and would  talk it out. But on Tuesday in Dale's weekly podcast he sounded very upset with the way she was reacting saying "She flew off the handle." Apparently the issue still hasn't been resolved.

As you may recall, back in 2007, while Danica was still running in Indy Car, she had a similar feud with Dan Wheldon after he cut her off in a race at Milwaukee causing her to get loose and almost lose control of her car. She chased him down on pit road after the race, grabbed his arm  and shoved him. They were able to make up after some time and after his untimely death, she even had a helmet specially designed as a tribute to him. Perhaps Danica will take after her boss and talk it over with Jr. and buy him a beer.

Will He? Or, Will He Not?

About 2 months ago somebody with a wide NASCAR knowledge stated "By my estimate, the only way Kyle would stand a chance of making it is if he's back by the time we go to Charlotte". Well, that is exactly when Kyle Busch came back. So is he going to make the Chase or not? Step 1 is complete, winnng a race. Actually, he's won 2 of the 7 races since his return. Step 2? Get inside the Top 30 in points. Currently Cole Whitt holds that position with 287 points and Kyle has 200. He needs to gain 87 points in 8 races, essentially 11 points per race. Cole Whitt's average finish this year is 28th, that would mean Kyle would need to average a 17th place finish over the next 8 races. Simple enough...or is it?

In Busch's 7 races this year, his average finish is 16.9. He has 2 wins, but he has also failed to finish 2 races and only has 3 Top 10's. Michigan and Pocono (2 of the 8 races before the start of the Chase) are some of Kyle's worst tracks historically, but then again Bristol and Richmond have been 2 of his best. It's going to be close, but he has to be incredibly consistent, something he doesn't have a very good history of. In the last 2 season's he has gotten in an accident on average about every 3 or 4 races. He can maybe get away with 1 maybe 2 more DNF's, but definitely not more than that. It's going to come down to the wire, and I'm going out on a limb and saying he comes up about 10 points short.

Perfect Match



There's no question that Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. have been the most consistent front runners this season, something we have come to expect from Kevin Harvick. Truex on the other hand has been a very pleasant surprise as well as Furniture Row Racing. It's been a rough road for both the driver and the team to get to this point, filled with ups and downs. Here's a look at the timeline for how they got here.

10/31/2004- Martin Truex Jr., while well on his way to clinching the Busch Series championship, makes his Nextel Cup debut for Dale Earnhardt Inc. at Atlanta Motor Speedway. He started 33rd, but lost an engine late in the race and finished 37th.

5/29/2005- In just his 5th career Cup start, Martin Truex Jr. leads his first laps during the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway and comes away with a 7th place finish, the first Top 10 of his career.

9/25/2005- Furniture Row Racing, a small one car operation based out of Denver, Co., makes their Nextel Cup debut at Dover International Speedway with driver Kenny Wallace. After starting 43rd, Wallace finishes 34th, 23 laps down.

2/19/2006- After winning back to back championships in the Busch Series, Truex begins his rookie campaign in the Cup Series with a 16th place finish in the Daytona 500.

8/6/2006- Furniture Row Racing is credited with leading a lap for the first time when Kenny Wallace stays out under a competition caution at the Brickyard 400.

10/8/2006- Truex picks up his first career Top 5 by finishing 5th at Talladega.

2006- Furniture Row Racing attempts the full Nextel Cup season with drivers Kenny Wallace and Jimmy Spencer. The team qualifies for 19 of the 36 races with best finishes of 25th at Phoenix and Richmond by Wallace. Truex finishes the year 19th in points with 2 Top 5's (Best finish of 2nd at Homestead, the final race of the year), and 5 Top 5's, but lost out on Rookie of the Year to Denny Hamlin.

6/4/2007- Truex completely dominates the race at Dover, leading 216 of 400 laps, to pick up his first career victory.

9/8/2007- Truex sits 11th in points after 26 races and makes the Chase for the first time in his career.

2007- FRR again qualifies for 19 races. Kenny Wallace finishes 21st at Bristol in March, but Kenny left the team in September and was replaced by Joe Nemechek. Truex struggled in the opening 7 races of the Chase and finished 11th in points. He did, however, pick up his first career pole and end the season with 3 straight Top 10 finishes.

4/25/2008- Joe Nemechek grabs the pole at Talladega, giving FRR it's first career pole.

June/July 2008- FRR gets their first Top 20 finish (20th at Loudon) and follows it up a week later by finishing 18th at Daytona.

10/5/2008- Joe Nemechek gets FRR their best finish to date with an 11th place finish at Talladega.

2008- Kenny Wallace returns to the FRR to attempt 3 races in a 2nd car, but only qualified for 1. Joe Nemechek qualifies for 32 of 36 races. Meanwhile, Truex struggles with only 3 Top 5's (best of 4th at Loudon), 11 Top 10's, misses the Chase and finishes 15th in points.

2009- FRR cuts back to only running half the season to spend more time building better cars and brings in new driver Regan Smith. Smith finishes in the Top 15 at Talladega in May and Daytona in June. Truex gets off to a promising start by winning the pole for the Daytona 500, but has the worst season of his career finishing 23rd in points with just 1 Top 5 and 6 Top 10's.

2009 Offseason- After 7 years with the organization, DEI cuts ties with Truex. Martin signs on to drive for former DEI driver Michael Waltrip with sponsorship from NAPA.

2010- Regan Smith and FRR return to full-time competition, qualifying for every race and pulling off 12 Top 20 finishes. Smith finishes 28th in points. Truex has another tough year finishing 22nd in points with 1 Top 5 and 7 Top 10's.

2/20/2011- Smith leads 7 laps in the Daytona 500, but loses the lead just before the "Big One" with 5 laps to go. Regan holds off to finish 7th, giving FRR their first career Top 10 finish.

5/7/2011- After running strong all day, Smith takes the lead with 11 laps to go in the Southern 500 at Darlington. Despite a hard charge from Carl Edwards, Regan is able to hold him off by .196 seconds to win the race, a career first for both himself and the team.

8/27/2011- Truex makes a hard charge at Bristol but is denied victory by just under a second to Brad Keselowski.

11/20/2011- Regan Smith and FRR finish the season 26th in points with a win, 2 Top 5's, and 5 Top 10's while Truex shows improvement finishing 18th in points with 3 Top 5's and 12 Top 10's.

4/22/2012- Truex leads 173 of 267 laps at Kansas, but is beat out by .7 seconds to Denny Hamlin. Truex sits 2nd in points through 8 races with 3 Top 5's and 6 Top 10's.

9/8/2012- Truex finishes the regular season 6th in points and makes the Chase for the 2nd time in his career.

October 2012- Coming off a 5th place finish at Talladega and sitting 23rd in points, Regan Smith is relieved of his driving duties at FRR. Kurt Busch, who had lost his ride at Penske Racing just a year earlier, lost his ride with Phoenix racing. FRR takes a chance by signing the talented yet hot-headed former champ to drive for them for the final 6 races of the season.

11/18/2012- Busch finishes 9th at Homestead to finish off the season with 3 straight Top 10's with FRR. With an average finish of 14.2 in the Chase, Truex matches career bests of 7 Top 5's and an 11th place points finish and sets a new career best of 19 Top 10's.

6/23/2013- After coming up just short on winning again at Texas 2 months earlier, Truex puts up another dominating performance at Sonoma and comes away with his first victory in 6 years.

9/7/2013- With 8 Top 5's and 13 Top 10's in the first 26 races, Kurt Busch helps FRR make the Chase for the first time in their existence. While they celebrated. NASCAR laid the hammer down on Michael Waltrip Racing, particularly Martin Truex Jr., after Clint Bowyer intentionally spun himself out to bring out a caution to help his teammate (Truex) make the Chase and knock Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon out. The other teams cried foul and Nascar decided to penalize MWR which knocked Truex out of the Chase and put Gordon back in, then they later made an exception to allow Newman into the Chase as well.

Kurt Busch and Furniture Row Racing would struggle in the final 10 races with just 3 Top 10's and finish 10th in points. Truex finishes the season with a win, 7 Top 5's, 15 Top 10's, and 16th in points.

2013 Offseason- Kurt Busch is offered a ride by Gene Haas at Stewart-Haas Racing and takes advantage of the opportunity to again drive for a top tier team. Martin Truex Jr., who had just lost his ride at Michael Waltrip Racing after NAPA backed out as a sponsor due to the incident at Richmond, signs on to drive the #78 for the 2014 season.

4/26/2014- After a horrible start to the season (Average finish of 25.5 including a 43rd at the season opening Daytona 500), Truex and the FRR team pick up their first Top 10 of the season with a 10th at Richmond.

9/6/2014- FRR is unable to duplicate their previous season's performance and miss the Chase. Through 26 races they only have 3 Top 10's, are 25th in points, and haven't led a single lap.

11/16/2014- Martin and Furniture Row Racing finish a disappointing season 24th in points with only 1 Top 5 (4th at Kansas in October) and 1 lap led.

2015- FRR brings in Cole Pearn as crew chief and he and Truex hit it off immediately rattling off 7 straight Top 10's to start the season

6/7/2015- After leading the most laps in each of the prior 3 races, Truex and the 78 car were hooked up again at Pocono. Unlike the other 3 races, however, Truex was able to pull through with the victory. The win broke a 69 race winless streak for Truex and a 147 race winless streak for Furniture Row.

Today- With a win, 5 Top 5's, and 14 Top 10's, Martin Truex Jr. and Furniture Row Racing are sitting 5th in points and most likely looking at their 2nd Chase birth and easily their best shot a winning a title.

Chase Picture

We already know 10 of the 16 Chase drivers (Harvick, Johnson, Logano, Earnhardt Jr., Truex Jr., Keselowski, Kurt Busch, Kenseth, Hamlin, and Edwards) based on race wins. As of right now the other 6 drivers currently in Chase positions are Jamie McMurray, Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Paul Menard, Ryan Newman, and Clint Bowyer. We can't forget that Kyle Busch is just 87 points away from the Top 30 in points which would put him in and knock another one of those drivers out and with the win and you're in format, just about anything could happen. So here is who you should watch for in the next 8 races.

Sure Kyle Larson hasn't made as big of a splash this year as he did last year, but these next 8 races are going to be at some of his best tracks. He finished 3rd and 2nd in the 2 Loudon races last year and 7th in the Brickyard 400. He finished 8th at Pocono earlier this year and 5th there last year. He finished 4th in his debut at Watkins Glen and 8th in his Darlington debut. And he led 90 laps at Bristol earlier this year en route to a 7th place finish. It is very likely that Larson could sneak away with a win, or two, before the Chase starts.

Jeff Gordon finished 3rd at Bristol in the spring and over his career has 5 wins at Indianapolis, 6 at Pocono, and 7 at Darlington. Good chance he comes away with a victory as well.

A.J. Allmendinger won at Watkins Glen last year to secure a Chase spot and will be the heavy favorite to do so again. Although Greg Biffle has had an awful season, he has 4 career wins at Michigan and could sneak in with another win there. And Clint Bowyer has won twice at Richmond and has back to back Top 10's there.

Jamie McMurray is in a good position to make the Chase on points, but a win to secure a spot is not out of the question for him either. He finished 4th in each of the last 2 Richmond races, 7th in each of the last 2 Pocono races, and finished 4th at Loudon last fall.

And the biggest wild card of all is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. who has been absolutely fantastic at Bristol with 2 Top 5's and 3 Top 10's in 5 career starts at the track.

Predictions

With all that being said, I believe both Gordon and Larson will win to lock in their places in the Chase and as I said earlier that Kyle Busch would come up short of the Top 30, which will leave 4 spots open based on points. I think those will go to Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray, Kasey Kahne, and Clint Bowyer.

My final four prediction is Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Ryan Newman.

And my pick to win the championship.......

Brad Keselowski. He's been running well at the tracks that are in the Chase so far this year and he has been very good at Homestead the past couple years. He just might get his 2nd Championship.

Join us again in September for our annual Chase Preview. Until then...Happy Racin'!