We are 9 races into the 36 race season. For those of you that are fans of stick and ball sports, that means we've come to the end of the first quarter. We've seen a lot of familiarity at the top with Harvick, Logano, and Johnson, but we've also seen a lot of unexpected things. Let's dive in.
Dominant Duo
Last year if you mentioned a dominant duo in Nascar, everyone (should've) thought of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano. The teammates combined to win 11 of the 36 races, 6 poles, and had a combined 33 Top 5's (46% of the races) and 44 Top 10's (61%). While Joey and Brad are still running well this year, each with a win, 8 Top 5's (44%) and 14 Top 10's (78%), they have been outshone by the Stewart-Haas teammates Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch. Harvick and Busch have 3 wins, 10 Top 5's (67%), and 11 Top 10's (73%), and remember, Kurt Busch missed the first 3 races of the year! The SHR boys have led 1472 laps this year. We've only run a total of 3061 laps. That's almost half! Kurt Busch has led 520 alone in just 6 races while the Penske duo have led a total of 536 the whole season. Pretty incredible stuff! Right now I don't see anyone as can match what is going on over there in the SHR shop.The Replacements
What a wacky year it has been thus far. Who could've ever predicted that Kurt Busch would be suspended the first 3 races, Kyle Busch would break his leg the day before the Daytona 500, Brian Vickers would come back from heart surgery only to be sidelined again for blood clots 2 weeks later, Kyle Larson would faint during an autograph session and miss the next days race, and Denny Hamlin would get neck spasms in the middle of a rain delay and be unable to finish the race? CRAZY!
However this has led to some interesting juggling around with drivers. Let's see if you can follow. With Kurt Busch suspended, Regan Smith jumps into the 41 for the first 3 races. Matt Crafton drove the 18 for Kyle Busch at Daytona. David Ragan took over the 18 at Atlanta, opening up the driver's seat in the 34, which Joe Nemechek drove. Brian Vickers returned at Vegas, freeing up Brett Moffitt, who was promptly tagged by Front Row Motorsports to drive the 34. Kurt Busch returned to the 41 at Phoenix, relieving Regan Smith. Brian Vickers was out again at Fontana, putting Brett Moffitt back in the 55 car, and forcing Front Row to find their 4th driver in 5 races, Chris Buescher. The following race at Martinsville, Kyle Larson faints and Regan Smith is called in to drive the 42 (Regan Smith is like a pinch hitter, he also filled in for Tony Stewart last year at Watkins Glen). Then during the rain delay at Bristol, Hamlin starts having neck spasms and they had to call in Erik Jones to finish the race in the 11. But wait! There's more! Michael Waltrip is driving the 55 this week instead of Brett Moffitt. And next week at Kansas Erik Jones will take over the 18 until Kyle Busch comes back, and rather than going back to the 34, David Ragan will finish out the season driving the 55 for Brian Vickers!
And the most incredible thing is that all of these replacement drivers have done a relatively fantastic job in their stints!
Matt Crafton had never made a Cup start before he was thrown into the 18 with just a few hours notice at Daytona and finished 18th. Not too shabby.
Regan Smith has finished 16th or 17th in all 4 of his races this year. Again, pretty good considering that 2 of those races he found out he was driving either the day of or the day before and had to start from the back.
David Ragan picked up a 5th place at Martinsville at currently sits 19th in points.
Brett Moffitt finished 8th at Atlanta in what was just his 8th career start, and only his 2nd start for MWR. Despite not racing at Daytona and driving 2 races for the underfunded Front Row Motorsports, Moffitt is currently 29th in points, ahead of Tony Stewart and Sam Hornish.
And Chris Buescher, in his 4 races, has an average finish of 24.8 in a car that had an average finish of 29.4 all of last year with David Ragan driving it.
I can't wait to see what Erik Jones can do in the 18 car!
Kyle Busch
One of the biggest questions of the year has been "When will Kyle Busch return?" Followed closely by "Will he be Chase eligible?"
The rules state that a driver must be inside the Top 30 in points and have attempted to qualify in every race to be able to make the Chase by winning a race. Nascar has allowed themselves to make exceptions. Last year Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart were both granted exceptions after they each missed a race and Denny actually made the Chase. Kurt Busch and Kyle Larson have both been granted exceptions this year, even though Kurt has missed 3 races due to Nascar suspending him. Looks like that has paid off for him after his win last weekend. But their seems to be controversy when it comes to Kyle Busch. How many races is too many to miss to be considered Chase eligible?
Kyle has mentioned that he hopes he can be back for Daytona in July. That would mean he would miss 16 of the 26 races leading up to the Chase, but let's take a look at that. If he were granted eligibility that would mean he would have 10 races to get inside the Top 30 in points AND he would have to win at least one of those 10 races. Right now Tony Stewart sits 30th in points with 148 points through 9 races. That's averaging 16.44 points per race. Multiply that over 26 races and it looks like the 30th place driver will have 428 points after Richmond. That means Kyle would have to average 43 points per race just to get inside the Top 30. 2nd place pays out 42 points, 43 if you lead a lap. So essentially Kyle would need to finish 1st or 2nd in all 10 of those races to make the Chase. If he can pull that off, by all means put the guy in the Chase. By my estimate, the only way Kyle would stand a chance of making it is if he's back by the time we go to Charlotte....that's just 3 weeks away.
Rookie Report
Didn't See That Coming
Perhaps the most impressive/surprising performance this year has been the resurgence of Martin Truex Jr. and Furniture Row Racing. In 2013, Truex had the best season of his career, winning at Sonoma and he looked poised to make the Chase until shenanigans ensued at Richmond that caused him to miss the Chase, lose his sponsor, and evenutally his ride too.
Furniture Row Racing also had a standout year in 2013 making the Chase for the first time in their existence with driver Kurt Busch. When Kurt left to go to SHR in 2014, it seemed a natural fit for them to pair up with Truex. 2014 turned out to be a disaster for the team with just 1 Top 5, 5 Top 10's, and a 24th place finish in the point standings. It appeared that both team and driver had achieved their 15 minutes of fame and would begin the slow decent into oblivion. On the contrary! The pair has rebounded and through the first 9 races they have 1 Top 5 (2nd at Las Vegas) and 8 Top 10's, sitting 3rd in points. It won't be long before this team breaks through for a win.
If the Chase were to start today we would have 2 drivers making it for the first time, Jamie McMurray and Paul Menard. McMurray has been solid all season. 2 Top 5's and 4 Top 10's have him sitting 9th in points. He had a solid run in Richmond and could really make a splash when we head to Charlotte later this month. Paul Menard hasn't been too flashy with just 1 Top 10 this year, but he has been incredibly consistent with 6 Top 15 finishes and sits 13th in points.
But there are 3 other drivers sitting right outside the Chase cutoff that are also looking for their first appearance. Danica Patrick is 16th in points, just 4 points back. She already has 2 Top 10's, an average finish of 18.4, and has finished on the lead lap in 67% of the races. Compare that to last year where she had 3 Top 10's the whole season, and average finish of 23.7, and finished on the lead lap in 53% of the races. Add on top of that that her contract expires at the end of the season and she just lost her sponsor for next year, too, she has a lot to prove before this year is out.
David Ragan, as mentioned before, is also right in the hunt sitting 19th in points. He won at Talladega 2 years ago and could make a huge impact by winning again this weekend. And despite Kyle Larson's disappointing start (finishing in the Top 10 in 38% of the races compared to 47% last year and an avg. finish of 18.5 compared to 14.2 last year) his teammate (McMurray) has shown a lot of speed and Kyle's 5 best tracks (Loudon, Chicago, Watkins Glen, Kansas, and Indy) are still coming up on the schedule, 4 of those before the beginning of the Chase. So don't count the kid out yet. My guess is we'll have 2 first time Chasers this year.
Is This The End?
Tony Stewart is off to the worst start of his career. Yes he did manage a 6th place finish at Bristol due to a high attrition rate (Ricky Stenhouse finished 4th in that race. That oughta tell you something), but outside of that he has had 5 finishes of 30th or worse. Last week at Richmond he spun to the inside of the track and barely nudged the wall with the front end of the car. After that he claimed he could not get the car restarted and retired from the race. Really? That was very reminiscent of Cole Trickle dropping the car into a low gear and burning the engine up so he could get out of the car. Is Tony scared? No clue, but it appears that his days of competitive racing are done. Very sad.
Roush Fenway Racing is also off to a horrendous start. Ricky Stenhouse's 4th and Bristol and Greg Biffle's 10th at Daytona are the only Top 10's on the year for the 3 car organization. Trevor Bayne has not finished better than 18th. The 3 cars sit 21st, 25th, and 27th in points. Things have gotten so bad that Greg Biffle, after qualifying 29th at Fontana, said the team is "dying a slow death". Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards saw what was going on with the team and both promptly got out and joined Joe Gibbs Racing, but Greg missed out on his opportunity to leave last year and is now paying the price for it. The Roush organization has only gone winless in a season twice in it's 28 year existence, their first season in 1988 with Mark Martin and in 1996 with Martin, Jeff Burton and Ted Musgrave. But even in 1996, Martin had 14 Top 5's, 4 runner up finishes, and finished 5th in points. There are no silver linings this year and I don't know if this team will be able to rebound. 
Who Will Make the Chase?
Now for everyone's favorite part...predictions. We pretty much already know that Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, and Kurt Busch will be in the Chase because they already have wins. That leaves us with 9 more drivers.
I think we will see Jeff Gordon, Kyle Larson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Clint Bowyer, and Carl Edwards all win in the next 17 races. So that gives us 12. Which means 4 drivers will make it in on points. Those 4 drivers will be Ryan Newman, Martin Truex Jr., Kasey Kahne, and Jamie McMurray.
As for who will win the championship? I know I said Matt Kenseth at the beginning of the year, and don't get me wrong, he's still running great, but can anyone beat Kevin Harvick right now? I'm not so sure. I'm thinking Harvick wins title number 2.
Alright folks, we got some exciting racing coming up over the next few weeks. I'll see you again after Kentucky for the Budweiser Halftime Report Presented by Dollar General. Until then, Happy Racin'!
Comments
Post a Comment