New Faces in New Places
There have been a slew of driver changes going into 2019 with 4 driver retirements, 2 former champs changing rides, and 4 full-time rookies joining the series. Let's break the moves down.
With Furniture Row Racing closing it's doors Martin Truex Jr. was left to find a new ride. Joe Gibbs Racing picked up Martin as well as his crew chief Cole Pearn and sponsor Bass Pro Shops. In order for JGR to be able to sign Truex they had to let go of one of their current drivers. Daniel Suarez was the odd man out, but he lands on his feet at Stewart-Haas Racing with sponsor Arris joining him in the number 41. Kurt Busch vacated that ride and took sponsor Monster Energy with him to replace the retiring Jamie McMurray in the Chip Ganassi Racing number 1.
Also retiring is Kasey Kahne and there are some BIG changes at Leavine Family Racing. The team has changed manufacturers from Chevy to Toyota and with that fills the void created by Furniture Row's departure as the new technical ally to JGR. Over the last 3 years we saw how that alliance enhanced FRR and it will be interesting to see if LFR has that same improvement. With all that being said it makes sense that LFR has pegged former JGR development driver Matt DiBenedetto (A.K.A. DiBurrito, A.K.A. The People's Driver) to drive their number 95. His move left an opening in the Go FAS Racing number 32 and they have gone with Corey Lajoie, son of former 2-Time Busch Series Champ Randy Lajoie, to run their car full-time. Lajoie ran a part-time schedule for Tri-Star Motorsports last year in the number 72. Tri-Star's status for 2019 remains unknown.
For the 2nd year in a row Matt Kenseth is retiring, and this time it feels permanent. Trevor Bayne was also let go from Roush-Fenway Racing and Ryan Newman has been hired to driver the famed number 6 Ford. Richard Childress Racing has hired rookie Daniel Hemric to replace Newman and they have changed the car number from 31 to 8 as Hemric is now the 4th driver from Kannapolis, NC to drive the number 8 in the Cup series, joining Ralph Earnhardt, Dale Earnhardt, and Dale Earnhardt Jr..
The other Rookie of the Year candidates are Ryan Preece, who replaces A.J. Allmendinger at JTG Daugherty Racing, Matt Tifft, who will field a 3rd car for Front Row Motorsports, and Tanner Berryhill, who will race for Obaika Racing.
Some other news and notes for this season.... Spire Motorsports purchased the charter from Furniture Row and will run full-time with the number 77 car. Jamie McMurray will race the Daytona 500 for them in a partnership with Chip Ganassi Racing (the car number will be 40 for that race only) and Quin Houff will race the car part-time, who will drive the remainder of the season has yet to be named.
Rick Ware Racing will field two full-time cars, the 51 and 52, with Cody Ware and Mike Wallace slated to drive the cars at Daytona. Both drivers are expected to more races throughout the year, but the full driver lineup has yet to be announced.
Ross Chastain is expected to return to the Premium Motorsports number 15, but whether that will be full-time or not is not known.
Ryan Truex will pilot the number 71 for Tommy Baldwin Racing at Daytona, but it is unknown whether the pair plan to run future races past that.
Manufacturer Battle
Last season Chevy made the switch from the SS to the Camaro. With the new body style they were expected to have a distinct advantage, while Ford, who had the oldest body style in the Cup Series, was expected to really struggle. That logic couldn't have been further from the truth. The 2 manufacturers essentially split Daytona with Ford winning the Clash, Chevy winning the pole, Ford winning Duel #1, Chevy winning Duel #2, Ford leading 150 of the 207 laps in the 500, and Chevy winning the 500. Chevy, however, didn't when another race for 6 months. In the end, Chevy won just 4 races, their lowest win total since 1982, and Ford won 19 races, their highest win total since 1997, and won their first manufacturer's title since 2002.
This year it's Ford who brings a new body style to the series, switching from the Fusion to the Mustang. This brings 2 major questions into the year:
1. Will Chevy rebound after the rough first season with the Camaro?
2. Will Ford have similar struggles with the Mustang that Chevy had with the Camaro?
My prediction? Yes, Chevy will bounce back. Ford will struggle early, but be strong late in the season. And Toyota is chomping at the bit, ready to dominate this season. I say 14 wins for Toyota, 12 for Ford, and 10 for Chevy.
The Next Generation
In NASCAR's 70 year history only 13 times has a driver under the age of 30 won the Championship. Joey Logano became the 11th driver to do so last year and Jeff Gordon is the only driver to win multiple championships before turning 30 (1995, 1997, & 1998). Logano has the opportunity to join Gordon as he turns 29 in May, and should he do so, he would be the first driver since Jimmie Johnson in 2009 and 2010 to win back to back titles.
Logano was the 3rd driver under the age of 30 to win the championship in the last 15 years (Kurt Busch in 2004 and Brad Keselowski in 2012) and looking at this seasons competitors, there are 19 full-time drivers under the age of 30:
00- Landon Cassill
3- Austin Dillon
8- Daniel Hemric
9- Chase Elliott
12- Ryan Blaney
13- Ty Dillon
20- Erik Jones
22- Joey Logano
24- William Byron
32- Corey Lajoie
36- Matt Tifft
37- Chris Buescher
41- Daniel Suarez
42- Kyle Larson
43- Bubba Wallace
47- Ryan Preece
88- Alex Bowman
95- Matt DiBenedetto
97- Tanner Berryhill
Of those 19 drivers, 8 drive for championship caliber teams and 5 I consider to be in the hunt for the 2019 championship. With Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Matt Kenseth retiring and Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, and Kurt Busch in their 40's, we could witness a changing of the guard over the next few years with these young drivers stepping up to take the sport over.
BOLD Predictions
Now it's time for everyone's favorite part of the season preview...my BOLD predictions. Last year I amazingly got 4 predictions right! Let's go for 5 this year!
Xfinity and Truck Series
Brett Moffitt will win his 2nd straight Truck championship with new team GMS Racing.
Harrison Burton, son of Jeff Burton, will win Rookie of the Year in the Truck Series.
Christopher Bell will again lead the Xfinity Series in wins, but will again come up short for the championship.
Cole Custer will win the Xfinity Series championship.
Noah Gragson will win Rookie of the Year in the Xfinity Series.
Matt DiBenedetto is a tough one to judge. It really depends on how good the car is. Will they be like they were last year, or will they be like Furniture Row? I think there will be a lot of bright moments for this team, but DiBurrito will have to get used to the new car.
Ty Dillon will have another rough season despite Germain Racing moving their shop closer to RCR. He will win a stage at a restrictor plate race, though.
Michael McDowell will have another ho-hum season with several Top 15's and just as many finishes outside the Top 30.
David Ragan...just copy what I said about Michael McDowell.
Bubba Wallace is a talented driver racing for a mediocre team. I'm afraid this team will struggle even more this year after losing their top sponsor from last year. I do predict fewer wrecks for Bubba and even a stage win.
21st-25th in Points
William Byron has a new crew chief this year, Chad Knaus. While this will be great for him in the long run, it will take some time for them to get acquainted with each other. This team will struggle to start the year, and start clicking late in the season.
Paul Menard will not run well this year. This team will struggle with the new Ford body and whether Menard returns to this team in 2020 is up for debate. Sponsorship will win out, though, and Menard will come back.
Ryan Preece is an incredibly gifted driver. He will win races this year, just not in the Cup Series (he will drive part-time for JR Motorsports in the Xfinity Series).
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will again come up short of winning in 2019 and may be out of a ride at the end of the year. Roush-Fenway Racing seems to be tired of the mediocre performance it's seen over the last several years and in the end, Stenhouse will be out.
Matt Tifft is making the jump to the Cup Series too early, but it may have been his only option as I'm not sure RCR was going to bring him back in the Xfinity Series. He'll struggle, but because he is one to take such good care of his car, he will beat out both his teammates in points.
17th-20th in Points
Austin Dillon has made the playoffs for 3 consecutive seasons. He won't make it 4. While he might win a couple stages, he won't win a race and will come up short of the playoffs.
Jimmie Johnson will again go winless and for the first time in his career will fail to make the playoffs. He doesn't have Chad calling the shots anymore and he will highly consider retirement, but Rick will talk him into staying through the end of his contract in 2020.
Daniel Suarez is in a make or break season. He wasn't able to capitalize on his opportunity with JGR and he has been given a 2nd chance with SHR. His contract is for at least 2 years, but he could be on a short leash with two talented drivers in SHR cars in the Xfinity Series. Suarez will come close to winning several times, but won't get a win. He will, however, retain the seat for 2020.
First Round Eliminations
Aric Almirola won't return to victory lane in 2019, but will easily make the playoffs on points. Unfortunately he won't make it past the first round. 0 wins, 4 Top 5's, 12 Top 10's.
Chris Buescher will be one of the surprise winners this year winning one of the restrictor plate races (I'm predicting the Daytona 500). That will get him into the playoffs for the 2nd time in his career, but he won't make it out of the first round. 1 win, 2 Top 5's, 3 Top 10's.
Erik Jones will have a strong season, but come up short of winning on several occasions. He will easily make the playoffs, but struggle in the first round. 0 wins, 7 Top 5's, 15 Top 10's.
Ryan Newman will be the other surprise winner in 2019, putting the famed 6 car back in victory lane for the first time since 2011. The win will come in a restrictor plate race and Newman will struggle throughout the season, but will severely outperform his teammate. 1 win, 4 Top 5's, 11 Top 10's.
Second Round Eliminations
Ryan Blaney will have another strong year with Penske, but will fall short of winning. He will have a lot of ups and downs in 2019 as the team adjusts to the new body style. 0 wins, 9 Top 5's, 15 Top 10's.
Alex Bowman needs to deliver in 2019 and he will. Bowman will grab his first career victory and will consistently be the #2 guy at Hendrick Motorsports. 1 win, 2 Top 5's, 10 Top 10's.
Clint Bowyer will return to victory lane in 2019, but will struggle in the playoffs. 1 win, 3 Top 5's, 15 Top 10's.
Brad Keselowski will pick up a couple of wins in 2019, but will simply be outclassed in the playoffs. 2 wins, 10 Top 5's, 21 Top 10's.
Third Round Eliminations
Chase Elliott seems to have taken over the #1 spot at Hendrick Motorsports and he will have another great season. He won't win as much as last year, but will be right there in the mix until the very last minute, coming up just short of making the championship 4. 1 win, 12 Top 5's, 23 Top 10's.
Denny Hamlin will not go back to victory lane in 2019. He will come close several times, but in the end will be the odd man out at JGR as he will be replaced by Christopher Bell in 2020. Hamlin will then replace Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at Roush-Fenway Racing. 0 wins, 10 Top 5's, 21 Top 10's.
Kyle Larson will be the comeback driver of the year. He will account for more than half of Chevy's wins, but will struggle in the playoffs. 6 wins, 13 Top 5's, 17 Top 10's.
Championship 4
Kyle Busch will lead all drivers in wins this season and will easily win the regular season title. 9 wins, 22 Top 5's, 29 Top 10's.
Kevin Harvick will lead the Ford brigade and be a force to be reckoned with all season. 6 wins, 20 Top 5's, 26 Top 10's.
Joey Logano will have some ups and downs in 2019, but will get some wins and return to the championship 4 by being the last man in. 2 wins, 14 Top 5's, 23 Top 10's.
Martin Truex Jr. will have no problem getting adjusted to his new team at JGR, especially with crew chief Cole Pearn joining him. His biggest problem in 2019 will be trying to beat his own teammate, Kyle Busch. 5 wins, 18 Top 5's, 25 Top 10's.
The Champ
While I believe we will have the same championship 4 as 2018, we will not have the same result. The JGR teammates will duke it out and the winner will be...…
Looking forward to a lot of fun racing in 2019. Until next time, Happy Racin' Y'all!
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