We are now less than a month away from the Daytona 500. I can smell the high octane fuel and burning rubber already! About a month ago I sat down to draw up an outline of what to cover in this annual preview. There was the new title sponsor (the former Sprint Cup is now the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series...try saying that five times fast), but aside from that, the typical driver carousel, which was pretty tame compared to most years, and my season predictions, which are usually wrong, there really wasn't much to talk about. It had been a pretty calm offseason. That is up until the last few weeks when we had some major breaking developments. Let's start with the latest...(and don't worry, I'm not going to talk about Jimmie's new beard)
New Format
For the last several years I have many times said that Brian France has the mentality of "If it ain't broke, fix it until it is.", but with the latest point format, which we'll dive more into here in a bit, I've discovered that France really is listening to his teams, drivers, and fans, he just has zero clue as to how to solve their issues. Here are a few examples:
When the smaller teams complained about the "super teams" having an advantage because they had more money and cars to test and prepare, NASCAR limited the number of testing sessions and which tracks you could test at for ALL teams. This did nothing to help the small teams. In fact, it actually hurt them because they needed the testing more than the others. A simple restriction for the Top 20 teams could have done wonders.
In recent years NASCAR struggled to get enough entrants to fill the 43 car field. With the new Charter system they reduced the field to 40 cars and guaranteed starting spots for 36 of those spots. Even with these changes NASCAR still couldn't fill the field, because with only 4 non-charter teams making the race, the risk of spending the money to enter the race and fail to qualify was too great.
Also, the Charter system was installed to help the smaller teams financially with the assumption that guaranteed starting spots would help bring in sponsors and give value to the teams. Unfortunately, several teams still struggled to find sponsorship and closed down. Finding another team to sell or lease their charter to this year has not been easy and currently there are only 38 teams that have committed to running the full Cup season.
That gives you an idea of France's thought process. Fans over the years have complained about the poor racing quality. The aero package basically lets whoever gets out in front stay out in front because the air turbulence behind them disrupts the trailing car so much that it makes it nearly impossible to pass. Most of the passes for the lead in the last few years have been on pit road or on restarts. Rather than fix the real issue, the aero package, NASCAR chose to revamp the points system to incentivize the drivers to "race harder" in the middle of the race. The races will now be split up into three segments. The top ten finishers after segments one and two will each get bonus points, ten points for the winner, decending down to one point for the 10th place finisher. In addition to the bonus points the two segment winners will each get one Playoff Point (Oh yeah, the Chase is gone and NASCAR is now calling it a playoff. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. jokingly said that all the fans that wanted to get rid of the Chase are now rejoicing.) At the end of the race the winner will get 40 points, 2nd place will get 35, 3rd will get 34 and the trend continues down with 36th-40th all getting one point. The race winner will also get five Playoff Points. What are Playoff Points, you ask? The Playoff Points will be added to the driver's reset total, should they make the playoffs, and will carry over from round to round. For instance, let's say Kevin Harvick has 35 Playoff Points after Richmond and makes the playoffs. They will reset all the playoff drivers points to 2000 and add their Playoff Points, so Harvick would have 2035 points to start the first round. Now let's say Harvick wins a race and two segments in the first three playoff races. That's seven more Playoff Points, so at the start of Round Two he would have 3042 points. Think that's confusing? Wait, there's more! The top ten finishers in points after the regular season will also be granted additional Playoff Points with the point leader getting 15, 2nd getting ten, 3rd getting eight, and so on down to 10th place getting one.
All of this was devised to make the racing better with the thought that drivers will fight harder in the middle of the race. Brad Keselowski perhaps said it best when he said that fans have the misconception that the drivers are only racing 75% in the mid-race and it's simply not true. It's understandable that the drivers may not always be running at 100%, but they're certainly running at least 95% (with the exception of the Gibbs cars at Talladega last fall, but that's another story), so what is this point format going to solve? If these drivers are running at 100%, how can they drive harder? The way I see it this new point format won't change anything at all. It will just further separate the elite from the good from the mediocre.
Riding Off into the Sunset
We had known for about a year that Tony Stewart was going to retire after the 2016 season. Greg Biffle parted with Roush Fenway Racing and at the moment does not appear to have any driving plans for 2017. While that was not expected, it certainly wasn't surprising with the performance of that team over the past few years and Biffle being the oldest full-time driver in the series. The stunning news, though, was the sudden retirement announcement from Carl Edwards.
It seemed unreal. Edwards, who was in the prime of his career, was quitting? Five years ago he lost the championship to Tony Stewart on a TIE-BREAKER! He finished in the top five in points in both 2015 and 2016 and came within ten laps of winning the championship last year! How could he hang them up? It was simple really, he was satisfied with the accomplishments in his career and wanted to walk away while he was still in good health. It really isn't too different from the onslaught of NFL players that have retired at early ages over the last couple of years in order to be healthier in their later years and avoid having the effects of CTE. Although he wouldn't admit it fully, I think Dale Earnhardt, Jr. missing 18 races with a concussion was an eye opener for Carl. While I'm still in shock over his departure, I respect his reasoning. There is plenty of speculation that Edwards will attempt a career in politics. Whatever he chooses to do, I wish him well.
As for Tony Stewart, he plans to keep busy this year. Not only will he still be an integral part of Stewart-Haas Racing, but he also plans on running over 70 sprint car races this year as well.
Greg Biffle's plans are still unknown, but he did recently send out a Tweet to his fans that he is "working on it". Hopefully he'll end up racing somewhere. Maybe the Truck Series will be a good fit.
The Prodigal Son Returns
New Faces in New Places
When Tony Stewart announced that he would retire after the 2016 he also announced that Clint Bowyer would replace him in the #14. Now the time has come. Bowyer will be driving for his 3rd different team and 3rd different manufacturer in three years. Last year was without a doubt the worst season in Clint's career, but you can't blame him for that performance. HScott Motorsports was a very underfunded team and unfortunately they folded under this offseason. Bowyer tried hard, but the cars were simply not good enough. It will be interesting to see how he recovers from that awful season especially since his last two seasons at MWR weren't that great either. He missed the Chase in 2014 with just five top 5's and 15 top 10's, and in 2015 he only had two top 5's and 12 top 10's, making the Chase by just 23 points and finishing 16th in points. In fact, Clint's last win came at Charlotte in the fall of 2012! With joining a new team that is switching to a new manufacturer, Bowyer will have a lot of adjustments to make and it will take some time for him to get back in rhythm.
We should have a good rookie battle in 2017 for sure. 2015 Truck Series champion Erik Jones will be driving a newly formed 2nd team for Furniture Row Racing alongside teammate Martin Truex, Jr. His arrival has been highly anticipated as he has proved he can win at every other level he has competed in. Ty Dillon will finally make his maiden voyage in the Cup Series as he replaces Casey Mears at Germain Racing. Mears has run well for the team over the past few years, but with Richard Childress Racing offering more support to the team to put Ty Dillon in their car, it was a business move they couldn't pass up. Finally, with the departure of Carl Edwards and Erik Jones already being committed to Furniture Row, who else did Joe Gibbs Racing have to turn to? Oh, that's right. How about reigning Xfinity Series champion Daniel Suarez? Daniel will pilot the JGR #19 in 2017 and with his ability to take care of his equipment and stay up front, he should have a successful rookie campaign and is my pick for Rookie of the Year.
There were also several other changes in the smaller teams. 18 year old Gray Gaulding will also compete for Rookie of the Year in the BK Racing #23. Chris Buescher leaves Front Row Motorsports to drive a 2nd JTG Daugherty car with teammate A.J. Allmendinger. David Ragan left BK Racing to return to Front Row Motorsports to replace Buescher. Matt Dibenedetto left BK Racing to drive the #32 for Go FAS racing full time. Jeffrey Earnhardt was just announced to drive the Circle Sport #33 full time. And rookie Corey Lajoie will race part time in BK Racing's #83.
There is not a doubt in my mind that Kyle Busch will make the playoffs and rack up the Playoff Points. In the last few years he has really matured and has learned to take care of his equipment and finish races, making him one of the two best drivers in the sport. Kyle will win four races in the regular season and accumulate the 2nd most Playoff Points.
While Jimmie’s success may come in waves, it’s success
nonetheless. It is very plausible that the reason for Johnson’s 18 race slump
last year was due to setup experimentations since they were already locked into
the Chase. This year there will still be more to race for with the Playoff
Points and I don’t expect Jimmie to have that big of a slump again. He will win
two races and multiple segments in the regular season.
What's In Store?
There are two drivers who I feel you can throw out there on any track, tell them to go out and win, and they will go out and do it: Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. Those two will thrive under this new point format as they will win a lot of races and they will run up front A LOT! Jimmie Johnson used to be one of those drivers, but recently his success has come in waves. Take last year for example: In the first nine races Jimmie had a win, five top 5's, and six top 10's. Over the next 18 he had just two top 5's and four top 10's, but then he finished off the year with three wins, four top 5's, and six top 10's in the final nine races.
The other two drivers who I think will be very successful under this format are the Penske teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano. While they may not win as much as Harvick and Busch, they are also very consistent and will rack up the bonus points.
The other two drivers who I think will be very successful under this format are the Penske teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano. While they may not win as much as Harvick and Busch, they are also very consistent and will rack up the bonus points.
The other intriguing story line will be who will be the next driver to get their first win? Last year Chris Buescher and Kyle Larson got their first career victories and there are quite a few high caliber drivers looking for their first victory: Austin Dillon, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Ty Dillon, Daniel Suarez, and Erik Jones. I predict that two of those drivers will get their first wins this year. I'll tell you who in a moment.
The following are the 16 drivers I believe will make the playoffs and how they will get there. I will also add a confidence level, expressing my confidence in the prediction with 1 being the most confident and 16 being the least.
(In Numerical Order by Car #)
1. Jamie McMurray
Jamie McMurray has turned into a pretty dependable driver (He was the only driver last season to make the Chase without leading a single lap of competition). He doesn't win much, but when he does it's usually on a big stage (i.e. Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600, Brickyard 400, All-Star Race, you get the picture). I believe Chip Ganassi racing is really beginning to improve, but I don't think Jamie will win a (points) race this year. Jamie will be the last of five drivers to make the playoffs on points.
Confidence Level: 14
2. Brad Keselowski
As I said earlier, Brad will do really well under this format. He will win on multiple occassions and rack up some Playoff Points and easily make the playoffs. I predict three wins for Brad in the regular season.
Confidence Level: 4
3. Austin Dillon
Austin was one of the surprise drivers of the Chase last year, but he appears to become more consistent as he progresses in his career. Should he pick up his first career win this year it will be the first time the #3 car has gone to victory lane since October of 2000. That won't happen, but Austin will point his way into the playoffs and probably win a few segments along the way.
Confidence Level: 13
4. Kevin Harvick
In case you missed it above, Kevin Harvick will thrive under this new format. He will win....a lot. I predict six regular season wins for Harvick and he will accumulate the most Playoff Points.
Confidence Level: 1
11. Denny Hamlin
Denny Hamlin is a very up and down driver. He'll win some races then he'll fail to finish races. But since the making the playoffs is mainly about winning races Denny will have no problem doing so. He will win two races in the regular season, solidifying his playoff spot.
Confidence Level: 5
18. Kyle Busch
Confidence Level: 2
19. Daniel Suarez
This is a tough one. Unlike his rookie counterparts, Daniel Suarez has never made a start at the Cup level. The thing he has going for him, though, is that he is stepping into an established team that won three races last year and he will have a familiar voice in his ear as his spotter from the Xfinity Series is coming with him. That's great for a driver who struggled to learn English. I'm predicting big things for Suarez. He will win two regular season races and be the first driver to pick up their first win this year.
Confidence Level: 15
20. Matt Kenseth
It wasn’t too long ago that when you looked up the work
“consistent” in the dictionary you’d see….well, the definition of “consistent”.
But that definition fit Matt Kenseth to a T. In 2003 Matt Kenseth won just one
race and led the points from the 4th race until the end of the
season, clinching the championship before even heading to the season finale.
NASCAR’s typical overreaction led to the inception of the Chase the following
year. That consistency will absolutely keep him in the playoffs this year, but
you have to wonder how much he has left in the tank. Matt turns 45 in March.
Jeff Gordon retired at 44, Tony Stewart at 45, and Greg Biffle is 47 and
appears to be done, making Kenseth the oldest driver in the series. He only won
2 races last year compared to 5 the year before, but all that being said, 58% of Matt’s wins have
come in odd numbered years….Coincidence? Probably. I predict Kenseth will win
one race in the regular season, clinching his playoff spot.
Confidence Level: 8
22. Joey Logano
Joey Logano can almost always be found near the front of the
field. Not only will that allow him to gain a lot of bonus points, but also to
win a lot of race segments. On top of those segment wins I predict three race
wins to lock in one of the higher playoff seeds.
Confidence Level: 3
24. Chase Elliott
Last year Chase Elliott did just about everything but win a
race. That will change this year and Chase Elliott will get that elusive first
victory, locking himself into the playoffs.
Confidence Level: 10
31. Ryan Newman
It has been 124 races since Ryan Newman’s last win (The 2013
Brickyard 400 for Stewart-Haas Racing) and 109 races since Richard Childress
Racing’s last win (2013 at Phoenix with Kevin Harvick), so a win this year for
Ryan Newman would be huge for both driver and team. Unfortunately, I don’t see
that happening. What is in Newman’s favor, though, is that he quite often is
running in the back half of the top 10. That should allow him to build up
enough bonus points to make the playoffs without a win. I see Newman having the 2nd most points among drivers without a win.
Confidence Level: 12
41. Kurt Busch
The 2004 champ has not won more than two races in a season
since he left Roush Fenway Racing. While he is consistent, his number of laps
led last year was the 5th lowest of his 16 year career. Kurt will
manage to find victory lane in the regular season, but not more than once.
Confidence Level: 7
42. Kyle Larson
Last year was a groundbreaking season for Kyle Larson. He
scored his first win, doubled his career top 5’s, more than doubled his career
laps led total, and made the Chase for the first time, finishing 9th.
More of the same is in store for Kyle this year. He will win a race in the
regular season and multiple segments.
Confidence Level: 9
48. Jimmie Johnson
While Jimmie’s success may come in waves, it’s success
nonetheless. It is very plausible that the reason for Johnson’s 18 race slump
last year was due to setup experimentations since they were already locked into
the Chase. This year there will still be more to race for with the Playoff
Points and I don’t expect Jimmie to have that big of a slump again. He will win
two races and multiple segments in the regular season.
Confidence Level: 6
78. Martin Truex, Jr.
Nobody led more laps than Martin Truex, Jr. in 2016. That
would lead most to believe that he will win a lot of races and segments this
season. I’m not so sure. Furniture Row is expanding to a two car operation and
it will take some adjustment for the team to figure out how to allocate their
resources. I still believe Truex will win, just not in the regular season. His
consistency, however, will give him plenty of points to lockup a playoff spot.
Confidence Level: 11
88. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
If you haven’t figured it out yet, Dale Jr. is my lowest
confidence pick and that’s simply because I don’t know what to expect. Any
driver coming off an injury that keeps them out for a long period of
time is unpredictable. Darrell Waltrip was never the same after breaking his
leg at Daytona in 1990. Sure he won a few more races after that, but after
finishing top 5 in points in 12 of the previous 13 years, he never would again.
Even more recently Tony Stewart broke his leg in a sprint car race in
2013. He came back to have the first winless season of his career and only had
one win and eight top 5’s in his final 97 starts. My biggest concern, however,
is whether or not Earnhardt will even be able to finish the season. If he has
another hard hit it might not just end his season, but possibly his career.
Should Earnhardt run the full season, I believe he will make the playoffs, but
not win a race.
Confidence Level: 16
Spoilers
The following five drivers have the best chance of ruining
my predictions and making their way into the playoffs.
5. Kasey Kahne
Nobody’s seat in the Cup Series is hotter than Kasey
Kahne’s. In his last two seasons Kahne has failed to make the Chase and had
just six top 5’s. To put that into perspective, last year Jimmie Johnson had
11, Chase Elliott had ten, and, despite only running half the season, Dale
Earnhardt, Jr. had five. Rick Hendrick has two young, talented drivers waiting
in the wings with Alex Bowman and William Byron. If Kahne fails to win or make
the playoffs again this season, one of those drivers will replace him. That
being said, never underestimate a driver with his job on the line.
14. Clint Bowyer
Stewart-Haas
Racing teammates Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch (Yes, I left Danica out on
purpose) may have to adjust to a new manufacturer this year, but what they do
have going for them is the established relationships with their crews. Clint
Bowyer doesn’t have that. He will be trying to get acquainted with a new crew
who is trying to get acquainted with a new car. It will most likely be a rocky
start for the team, but I do believe they will come on strong in the second
half of the year and come up just short of the playoffs. Things could click
right from the start, though, and if they do, watch out. Clint Bowyer is a
wheel man riding a 144 race winless streak and is hungry for a win.
21. Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney is perhaps the driver I was the most
disappointed with last year. Not that he had a bad season, I just had higher
expectations for him. With the Wood Brothers receiving support from Penske I
thought Blaney would be up front mixing it up with Joey Logano and Brad
Keselowski, but he didn’t, at least not as much as I had imagined. The team
needs some pretty drastic improvement to make the playoffs this year, but with
Penske support, it may absolutely happen. I’ll need to see it to believe it
first.
47. A.J. Allmendinger
Since switching to the “win and you’re in” format in 2014
A.J. Allmendinger is a threat to make the playoffs every year. There are two
road course races in the regular season and A.J. has become the favorite at
those events. It worked well for him in 2014 when he won at Watkins Glen, but
since then he hasn’t fared so well with only one top 10 finish in those four races. I believe he has put so much pressure on
himself to win at those tracks that he becomes his own worst enemy. But you can’t
count him out. If he wins one of those races he is in the playoffs.
77. Erik Jones
You
just never know what to expect with a rookie. Furniture Row Racing had a lot of
success with Truex last year, but this is a 2nd team with new crew
members. While I think Erik will run well, I think he’ll come up just short of
the Chase. He has proven he can win at every level that he has
raced, though, and it doesn't take him long to do it. It only took Erik five races to win in the Truck Series and nine to win
in the Xfinity Series. Follow that trend and we very well might see Erik win in
just his 17th Cup start, which would be at Pocono, the track that Chris Buescher got his first career victory at last year.
The Playoffs
The new Playoff Points will have a major impact on the Chase. Not having any, or having very few, is sure to hand a driver an early exit from the playoffs. The first round will eliminate the four drivers with the fewest Playoff Points. Those four drivers will be Austin Dillon, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Jamie McMurray and Ryan Newman.
Round Two is what I like to call the "Survival Round" due to the unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing at Talladega. NASCAR inexplicably eliminated some of the excitement by switching Talladega and Kansas, making Kansas the elimination race now instead of 'Dega. What will really make this round intriguing is that the drivers who I believe will be the bottom two going in, Martin Truex, Jr. and Chase Elliott, are really good at Charlotte and Talladega respectively and both of them will win to advance, leaving Kyle Larson, Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, and Matt Kenseth to be eliminated.
Kevin Harvick will build up so many Playoff Points in the regular season that he will be darn near impossible to eliminate in the playoffs. If he gets to Round Three it's lights out due to his incredible success at Phoenix. Kyle Busch will win at either Martinsville or Texas, or both, to advance as well. Despite valiant efforts Daniel Suarez, Kurt Busch, Joey Logano and Martin Truex, Jr. will be eliminated.
Your final four drivers battling for the championship at Homestead will be Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott. At this point you have to look at each drivers' history at the track. Chase Elliott has only made one start there and finished 11th. I know that really doesn't mean much, but there's an old saying that you have to lose one before you can win one, so Chase is out. That leaves three former champs. Kyle Busch has a win, two top 5's and five top 10's in 12 starts. Kevin Harvick has a win, eight top 5's, and 14 top 10's in 16 starts. Brad Keselowski has no wins, two top 5's, and three top 10's in 9 starts. Seems like a no brainer to me. Your 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series champion will be.................
Kevin Harvick!
That's all for today. Keep an eye out in a few months for my First Quarter Review. Until then, Happy Racin' Y'all!
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