Miller Lite Mid Season Review Presented By Jimmy Johns

We are halfway through another season of racing and the excitement is about to pick up. Over the next 2 months the Chase field will be set and then the following 2 months will determine who will be walking away with the Cup. Let’s take a moment to recap the first half of the season and preview what is still to come.

 The Super Teams

When you think of the top tier teams in NASCAR 4 teams really come to mind. Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing, and Team Penske. The first 18 races of the season were dominated by JGR, having won 7 of those 18 races (8 if you include Martin Truex’s win at Charlotte for their satellite team, Furniture Row), but have they really dominated? Sure they’ve won a lot of races, but they haven’t necessarily been the most consistent. Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick actually have more Top 10’s than any other drivers with 15 and 14 respectively. In fact, the SHR organization as a whole has 34 Top 10’s this season (that’s including the 0 from Danica Patrick) compared to JGR who has 37 among their 4 drivers. Team Penske only has 2 drivers and they have combined for 23 Top 10’s. So to make it fair, let’s just look at the Top 10 drivers in points for all 4 teams and see how they compare.

SHR (Kevin Harvick & Kurt Busch): 2 wins, 13 Top 5’s, 29 Top 10’s

Penske (Brad Keselowski & Joey Logano): 5 wins, 15 Top 5’s, 23 Top 10’s

JGR (Carl Edwards & Kyle Busch): 5 wins, 17 Top 5’s, 23 Top 10’s

HMS (Chase Elliott & Jimmie Johnson): 2 wins, 12 Top 5’s, 18 Top 10’s

 I’d say it’s pretty close between SHR, Penske, and JGR (I'd give Gibbs a slight advantage at this point), but it’s clear that the Hendrick team is way off track. While Jimmie Johnson is the only driver on the team to win (both wins are his) this year, it's actually rookie Chase Elliott leading the team in points (8th), average finish (14.1), and Top 10's (11, he's tied with Jimmie with 6 Top 5's). Kasey Kahne is the obvious weak link, sitting 17th in points with only 2 Top 5's, 6 Top 10's, and an average finish of 16.7, but he's really not doing that much worse than Dale Earnhardt Jr. who sits 13th in points with 5 Top 5's, 6 Top 10's, and an average finish of 15.6. There doesn't seem to be any panic in the organization, but perhaps there should be. Not one of their 4 drivers have finished in the Top 10 in either of the last 2 races. It's been 5 years since the last time that happened. I'm afraid Mr. H is going to have to make some changes or else there's a chance they could fall behind like Childress and Roush, and that's a long road to recovery.

 

Rising Smoke

I don't think there is any arguing that the coolest thing that happened in the first half of the season was Tony Stewart going to victory lane at Sonoma. Here's a 3-time champion who 3 years ago, at the age of 42, was just starting to heat up in the summer months (This is normal for Tony. 43 of his 49 wins have come in June or later) when he breaks his leg in a sprint car accident and misses the rest of the season. Very similar to what happened to Darrell Waltrip. In 1990, at the age of 43, Darrell Waltrip, a 3-time Champion, broke his leg in a practice crash at Daytona causing him to miss 6 races. DW was never the same after that. He managed to win 5 more races over the next 2 years, but he had his worst average finishes since he rookie season in 1972.

In 2014, Stewart made his return to the track. He didn't seem quite the same as he still had a lot of pain in his leg, but after a few races he started returning to form, picking up 2 Top 5's and 4 Top 10's in the first 8 races. Then came Talladega where Stewart got caught up in the "Big One" late in the race. The impact didn't appear to be hard, but it might've been enough to shake him up. Over the next 11 races he only managed to get 2 more Top 10's. Still this wasn't anything Stewart supporters weren't already used to in the first 3-4 months of the season, and heading to Watkins Glen, a track where Tony had already collected 5 wins, confidence was still high. That's when the Kevin Ward Jr. tragedy occurred. Smoke took the next 3 races off and definitely was not the same afterward.

In DW's final 8 years of racing (1993-2000) he failed to win and had just 14 Top 5's and 39 Top 10's in a total of 243 races run. Tony appeared to be going down that road. He ran all the races in 2015 and had no Top 5's and just 3 Top 10's. He finished 28th in points, his worst points finish ever beside the broken leg year where he managed to finish 29th in points despite missing 15 races. It was no surprise to anyone when Tony announced at the beginning of 2016 that he would retire at the end of the year. In fact, a lot of fans were happy because they didn't want to see him race poorly for 8 years like Waltrip. Unfortunately, poor Smoke couldn't catch a break and he broke his back in January in a dune buggy accident. Many wondered if Tony would even return at all at that point, but he was devoted to making a return and amazingly only missed 8 races. In just his 2nd race back he finished 6th at Talladega, but shortly returned to the way he had raced over the past 2 years. After his first 5 races his average finish was 19th. But then he qualified 6th at Pocono...that was his best qualifying effort since Michigan last August. Hope rose for Stewart fans, but unfortunately he got caught up in a wreck midway through the race and finished 34th. He then qualified 3rd at Michigan and hung around the Top 10 in the early parts of the race, stayed there through the middle stages, and managed to finish there and come home 7th. When he qualified 10th at Sonoma there was more hope! Maybe Smoke was back! When he took the lead with 22 laps to go the roar from the fans was louder than when Dale Jr. leads at Daytona! But A.J. Allmendinger and Denny Hamlin were the class of the field. No way Tony could hold them off. And it proved true when Hamlin finally passed him in turn 7 on the last lap....Then, in true Tony Stewart fashion, he drove hard into the turn 11 hairpin, scared Denny
enough to make him go wide, and put Hamlin in the wall and drove off to grab the checkers!

Does Tony have anymore wins left in him? I don't know. I certainly like to think so. He just had another Top 5 last week at Kentucky and it is summer time. They say where there's smoke, there's fire. Well Smoke definitely has some fire in him this season.

Silly Season

We're getting into the heat of the summer which means it's time for the NASCAR Silly Season as the 2017 driver lineups begin to take shape. We haven't heard a lot of information yet, but let's start with a simple question. Would you rather have a driver with 17 career wins (the last coming 3 years ago) who finished 2nd in points 2 years ago, consistently makes the Chase and has a Top 5 and 6 Top 10's with an average finish of 14.9 this season? Or would you rather have a driver who's only career win came 5 years ago, their best points finish is 14th, and only has 1 Top 10 with an average finish of 21.7 this year? Seems pretty simple, right? Here's where it gets tricky, the 2nd driver has guaranteed sponsorship while the 1st driver does not. In a sport that's becoming more about sponsorship dollars than talent, that's a hot commodity.

This is the dillema that Richard Childress is going through right now. It's rumored (assumed) that Ty Dillon will be moving to the Cup Series full-time next year. That's all fine and great if RCR starts up a 4th team, but they've been reluctant to do that in the past, which begs the question "Who's going to be the odd man out?" Well we know for sure it's not going to be Austin Dillon (If you're not aware, the Dillon boys are Richard's grandsons), so that leaves either Ryan Newman or Paul Menard. Newman, although he doesn't win much, is a very consistent driver, keeps the car clean, and almost always makes the Chase. Paul Menard was very consistent last year, but has just 1 win in 10 seasons. Paul has the sponsorship, though, and Ryan Newman said just a few weeks ago that he doesn't know what his future plans are.

Martin Truex Jr. is another driver who's future isn't fully clear. I know, sounds crazy. He's 7th in points, his win in the Coke 600 was one of the most dominating performances in NASCAR history, and I don't think there is a single person in the garage that doesn't like the guy. Here's the issue, Furniture Row Racing needs more sponsorship. Right now they have enough money to fund one car and they are desperately wanting to expand to a two car team. That 2nd driver is almost certain to be Erik Jones. He's the hottest driver not already in the Cup Series, but he drives for Gibbs and last I checked, the Gibbs stable is pretty full on the Cup side. Since Gibbs supplies engines to FRR, they're kind of in a bind. If they can't secure funding for a 2nd team, they'll have to choose between staying loyal to Truex and losing their engine supplier (very unlikely) or staying competitive with good engines and quite possibly the best driver under the age of 25 in the sport (most likely). My guess is that they'll find the sponsorship and be racing with both Truex and Jones next year, but you never know.

Remember when I said Hendrick needs to make some changes? If Truex does happen to get the boot from FRR, you can probably say "Sianara!" to Kasey Kahne and watch Martin jump into that 5 car. But should that be the only scenario where they dump Kahne? I think not. Kasey has been unproductive for the last 2 seasons. Sure he has a couple of Top 5's this year, but those he mainly lucked into. It's been 23 races since Kahne last led a lap. 23! That's Talladega last October. And heck, anyone can lead at Talladega. Before that you have to go to Darlington, where he used pit strategy to get to the front and led 2 laps on a restart. The last time he led more than 5 laps on a non-restrictor plate track was Martinsville in May of 2015 when he led 29 laps in the middle of the race. That's 48 races ago! And he's in a Hendrick car! One of the more sought after rides in NASCAR! Hendrick needs to make a change and it starts with the 5 car. No doubt they're keeping an eye on the Newman situation, but how about some other, younger possibilities. Darrell "Bubba" Wallace Jr. is a talented driver stuck in a poor Roush Xfinity car, but I think he's the successor to Greg Biffle whenever he decides to hang 'em up. How about Daniel Suarez? The young Mexican driver picked up his first Xfinity win earlier this year at Michigan and he has six 2nd place finishes combined in Xfinity and Truck the last 2 years. He's mixed in a very talented bowl of young drivers in the Gibbs organization along with Jones, William Byron, and Christopher Bell. The chances of Suarez making it to the Cup
level with Gibbs aren't fantastic, so if another Top level team gives him a call, he better answer.

First to Get Their First

There are 4 young drivers sitting in the Top 20 in points who are looking for their first career Cup win. Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon, Ryan Blaney, and Kyle Larson. All four of them have finished in the Top 5 this season at one of the 17 tracks left on the schedule.

Ryan Blaney finished 5th at Kansas.

Austin Dillon finished 3rd at Talladega and 4th at Martinsville.

Kyle Larson finished 2nd at Dover and 3rd at Martinsville and Michigan.

Chase Elliott finished 2nd at Michigan, 3rd at Dover, 4th at Bristol and Pocono, and 5th at Texas and Talladega.

So who will be the first of these drivers to get their first win? I think Elliott, Larson, and Blaney all have a good shot to win this year. Elliott's best opportunity may very well be Pocono. Larson's best is Dover. And Blaney's best is Kansas. Since Pocono is the first scheduled of those 3, I'm going to say that Chase beats them to the punch to pick up career win #1.

Looking Ahead

We have had 11 different winners in the first 18 races and 11 tickets punched for the Chase (Assuming Tony Stewart stays in the Top 30 in points, which looks pretty promising). That leaves just 5 spots left with 8 races to go. There are still several good drivers out there with a chance to win. In addition to the 4 listed above you've got Ryan Newman, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jamie McMurray, Kasey Kahne (Yes, he's still got a chance), and A.J. Allmendinger, just to name a few. Let's go track by track to see which winless drivers have the best chance of winning.

New Hampshire: Newman. He's won there 3 times and finished 10th the last time we were there.

Indianapolis: Larson. He's finished 7th and 9th in his 2 previous starts.

Pocono: Earnhardt Jr. He swept both races in 2014 and has 6 Top 5's in his last 7 starts.

Watkins Glen: Allmendinger. He got his first career win here in 2014 and has 4 Top 10's in 7 starts.

Bristol: Earnhardt Jr. He's a former winner here, finished 2nd here in the spring, and has back to back Top 10's.

Michigan: Dillon. He has back to back Top 10's and finished 4th in the 2nd race last year.

Darlington: Earnhardt Jr. He has 3 straight Top 10's and finished 2nd in 2014.

Richmond: Earnhardt Jr. He's a 3-time winner here and finished 5th last fall.

In the extremely rare event that these drivers all win these races, that would put us right at 16. But let's face it, that's not likely to happen. In fact, I don't think we have anymore new winners this year (Just because I think Chase will be the next driver to get his first win doesn't mean it will be this year), which means 5 Chase positions will be set by points. So here are my predictions.

Chase Elliott will lock in his Chase spot in Michigan with 2 races to go.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Ryan Newman will punch their tickets at Darlington with 1 race to go.

Austin Dillon, Jamie McMurray, Kyle Larson, and Kasey Kahne will battle it out at Richmond for the final 2 spots with Dillon taking the first and McMurray barely edging out his teammate Larson to be the 16th and final Chaser.

Dillon, Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, and Earnhardt Jr. will be the first 4 eliminated from the Chase.

McMurray, Hamlin, Kenseth, and Edwards will be the 2nd 4 eliminated.

Logano, Newman, Keselowski, and Kurt Busch will be the last 4 eliminated.

That leaves Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., and Chase Elliott as your final 4.

And the champ will be......

Not changing my mind here. I'm sticking with Kevin Harvick.

I'll be back after Richmond for our annual Chase preview. Until then, Happy Racin' Y'all!