The new Chase format in itself has already made the last 5 races more exciting with the only guarantee to advance being winning, but this 2nd round, with the unpredictable Talladega looming, has truly been special. Three championship favorites all struggled at Kansas making Charlotte pretty much a must win. Well, neither of them won at Charlotte, nor did any of them run particularly well. So now Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., who have a combined 7 championships and 9 Talladega wins, sit on the brink with their only shot (virtually) to keep their championship hopes alive is a win at the most unpredictable track on the circuit. Even if those three drivers fail to win, there is still one more driver to be eliminated. And if one of them does win, then that's 2 more drivers that will fall out. The only thing that is for certain is that Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick are moving on. So here is the (long) list of drivers to watch this weekend.
The "Must Win's"
Dale Earnhardt Jr. probably has the best shot to win of the three on the brink. He has won here 5 times (4 of those in a row) and has led 801 laps, 2nd in both among active drivers. His average finish of 15th is the best among active drivers with at least 4 starts at the track. The bad news? He hasn't won here in 10 years and only has one top 10 in his last 4 starts (2nd last year). Either way, Jr. knows these restrictor plate races and with a win more important than ever, he just might pull through.
Brad Keselowski picked up his first career win here in 2009 when he held his line and sent Carl Edwards into the catch fence. He has since picked up a 2nd Talladega victory. He failed to finish on the lead lap in his last 2 visits and hasn't gotten a top 10 here since 2012. I'm afraid Brad may get a little too aggressive and get himself into trouble early, but he could also pull through with a win.
If you haven't already done the math, Jimmie Johnson is also a 2-time Talladega winner. In the 6 races since his last win, he has one top 10 (5th) and 3 top 20's. No, he didn't crash out of those races either. Aside from the spring 2010 race where he blew an engine, Jimmie has finished on the lead lap in each of those races. Simply put, Jimmie just hasn't been very good at Talladega. He's going to really have to turn his luck around if he wants to get his 7th championship this year.
The Favorites
Kevin Harvick picked up his one and only Talladega win in the spring of 2010 and has finished 12th or better in 5 of the 8 races since. Coming off the win last week he has absolutely nothing to lose and that team badly wants another W. He led 15 laps here in May en route to a 7th place finish. Don't count Happy out.
Jeff Gordon's 6 wins and 844 laps led is the best among active drivers. Although he hasn't won at this track since 2007, Jeff is in no way comfortable with his position in points and will most likely trying to stay up front to avoid being caught up in somebody else's mess.
Joey Logano is another one with nothing to lose. He has never won at Talladega, nor had any sort of luck whatsoever, but he did lead 25 laps here in the spring. With the pressure off his back this weekend he may just be able to finally sneak into victory lane. Oh yeah, the numbers are in his favor, too. In the 5 Chase races so far he's finished 4th, 1st, 4th, 1st, and 4th. Guess it's time for the 22 to pick up another checkered flag.
Kyle Busch has had his Talladega ups and downs as well. He won here in 2008, but has failed to finish 5 times in 19 races. Things have been looking good for him lately though, as he has 3 top 5's in his last 5 Talladega starts. And let's not forget his teammate won here in the spring.
The Spoilers
There are no dark horses at Talladega, but several drivers have the ability to spoil the fun for the Chasers like Jamie McMurray did last year...
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is proving he can hold his own on the superspeedways. He finished 3rd in this race last year after leading 6 laps and has never finished worse than 13th. He wouldn't be the first driver to get their first win at this track. Just ask Brad Keselowski and Brian Vickers.
Kyle Larson is another driver looking for his first career win and why not do it here. He has 5 straight finishes of 6th or better and 8 straight finishes of 12th or better. His teammate won this race last year and Kyle finished 9th in his first Cup start at this track.
Clint Bowyer picked up career win number 100 for RCR at this track in 2011. It was his 2nd win here as well. Even though it's been a rough year for Clint, he did finish 3rd here in the spring and has 7 top 10's in his last 9 Talladega starts. Tough to bet against that.
Despite having won at Daytona, Greg Biffle has never won at Talladega. He came awfully close in the spring when he led almost 1/3 of the race, but fell short and had to settle for 2nd. Look for another strong run from the 16 this weekend.
Paul Menard is one of only 3 drivers to be riding on back to back top 10 finishes at Talladega (Ricky Stenhouse and Clint Bowyer the others) so why not keep an eye on him. He seems to enjoy the pressure of the big races and often runs up front in them (his only win is the Brickyard 400). I'd say keep an eye out for him, but that bright yellow paint scheme won't be hard to spot.
There you have it. Lots of folks to watch and I didn't even include the last 4 winners (Hamlin, McMurray, Ragan, and Kenseth). Maybe that's because we've had 7 winners in the last 7 races here. I'll leave you with my pick to win. You've seen me pick him as a dark horse many times this year and this week he pulls through...Paul Menard.
Happy Racin'
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