Challenger Round
The Challenger Round consists of races at Chicago, New Hampshire, and Dover.
AJ Allmendinger- Of the 3 tracks Dover is by far his best with 3 top 10's and a best finish of 7th, but only 1 top 10 combined at both Chicago and New Hampshire in 16 starts will have AJ out of contention early. Still, it's great to see him at least have a shot.
Aric Almirola- Another feel good story and the other Chase rookie. I don't think we could find a worse first round of tracks for Aric. He did pick up a top 5 in Loudon last year and finished 6th at Dover the first time he went there, but outside of that he has struggled at all 3 tracks.
Joey Logano- Considered as a Chase favorite by some, but Chicago has not been a friendly track to Joey with an avg. finish of 19.4. He does have a win at New Hampshire, but his last 3 finishes there are 40th, 14th, and 40th. Dover is perhaps Joey's best chance of advancing. He has 5 straight top 10 finishes there, but in11 starts has only led 1 lap. I think Joey falls just short of advancing to the Contender Round.
Kurt Busch- Kurt actually has a lot of success at these tracks. He finished 4th at Chicago last year, has won 3 times at Loudon, and has a win at Dover. Consistency is his issue. Kurt has just 7 top 10's this year (6 of those top 5's) and has only had them in back to back races once. Unless he wins one of the first 3 races (which is possible), I don't think he'll be consistent enough to advance.
Contender Round
This round will be interesting because it consists of two 1.5 mile tracks (Kansas and Charlotte) and the anything can happen wild card: TALLADEGA BABY!!! Unless Goodyear screws it up like they did Richmond, 'Dega is going to be awesome!
Brad Keselowski- He's won at all of these tracks and if he can pick up a win at one of them, he'll advance. But his last 2 races at Kansas have been mediocre and he has had horrendous luck at Talladega the last 2 years. Charlotte is his best chance, he actually won that race last year, but Brad is my upset pick for the Contender Round.
Denny Hamlin- Since winning at Kansas in 2012 Denny has failed to post a top 10 finish and even though he won at Talladega earlier this year, it has historically been one of his worst tracks. Again, Charlotte is the bright spot for Denny. Although he's never won there, he has 7 top 10's (4 top 5's) in his last 8 starts. But at this stage in the Chase, one or two good finishes may not be enough.
Matt Kenseth- Kenseth has 7 top 10's, including 2 wins, in his last 8 starts at Kansas and back to back 3rd place finishes at Charlotte. Talladega, however, has not been friendly to Matt. Other than Sonoma, Talladega has been Kenseth's worst track, even though he has won there before. Something tells me there's heartache in the air for the former champ.
Ryan Newman- Based solely on avg. finish, Newman's 5 worst tracks are Talladega, Daytona, Texas, Charlotte, and Kansas. I think it's safe to say that Ryan is not looking forward to this stretch of races. His last top 10 at Kansas was in 2009 and he has finished outside the top 20 at Talladega in 7 of his last 10 starts. He did finish in the top 10 in both Charlotte races last year, though. Glimmer of hope?
Eliminator Round
Things get fun now as the 8 drivers vying for the last 4 spots head to the short track (Martinsville), mile and a half speedway (Texas), and the flat mile (Phoenix). Points may not be enough here as a win in any of these races guarantees you a spot in the Championship Race at Homestead.
Kasey Kahne- Kasey makes it this far largely in part to his 2 best tracks being Charlotte and Kansas (Both in the last round), however, despite being fairly successful at both Texas and Phoenix, he has not faired well at Martinsville. In his last 7 starts at the paperclip, he has 2 top 5's, and finished outside the top 20 in the other 5. In this round, unless you win one of the three races, you cannot afford a bad finish.
Carl Edwards- I think Carl will just barely avoid elimination in the first 2 rounds. He has an excellent shot to win at both Texas and Phoenix (He has a combined 5 wins at the 2 tracks), but like Kahne, Martinsville is his Achilles heal. He hasn't finished in the top 10 there since 2009. If he doesn't win one of the other two, his road comes to an end.
Greg Biffle- Much like his Roush Fenway teammate, Greg will have a tremendous shot to pick up a win at Texas. He's done it twice before. Also much like Carl, Biffle struggles at Martinsville. Although he has 3 top 10's in his last 4 races there, he has never finished better than 7th. As for Phoenix, his last 3 finishes are 17th, 13th, and 17th. That's not going to cut it at this stage of the game.
Jeff Gordon- The 4-Time Champ has 8 wins at Martinsville, 2 at Phoenix, and 1 at Texas, so why on earth am I picking him to get eliminated? Yes, Martinsville is Jeff's best track, but Texas is his worst. Granted he did finish 2nd there in the spring, he finished 38th in both Texas races last year.That being said, winning at Martinsville could put him through, he won that race last year, but he has to beat out his teammate and fellow 8 time Martinsville winner, Jimmie Johnson. It's been a great run for Jeff this year, but I'm afraid he comes up short.Sprint Cup Championship
That leaves us with our final 4. Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch, and Jimmie Johnson. Before we analyze how they'll do at Homestead, let's take a look at why I've chosen these 4.
Kevin Harvick- He has 2 wins and 5 runner up finishes this year! His biggest weakness in the Chase is Loudon, where he's finished 20th and 30th in his last 2 outings, but Harvick is extremely good at Chicago, Kansas, and Phoenix (where he has won 3 of the last 4 races). I'm betting he'll win 2 of those 3.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.- 3 wins and 3 runner up finishes has Jr. having the best season of his career. His weaknesses are Chicago, where he finished 35th last year, and Charlotte where he has finished 15th or worse in 10 of his last 13 races. But extreme consistency and top 5's earlier this year at Phoenix, Martinsville and Kansas, and not to mention 5 wins at Talladega in his career, make him a Final Four favorite.
Kyle Busch- I almost didn't pick Kyle to make it this far. In fact I almost eliminated him in the first round because his last 6 races he's finished 14th or worse (4 of those 36th or worse). Then I looked at the first 3 races of the Chase. Chicago, where he's won before and has back to back top 5's. Loudon, where he has finished 2nd 3 times in a row. And Dover, where he has 2 wins and 9 top 5's in 19 starts. Chances are if he doesn't win at least one of those, he'll run well enough to beat out 4 other drivers. And even though he hasn't been great at Kansas or Talladega, if he can get through that 2nd round, Phoenix and Texas are 2 of his best tracks.
Jimmie Johnson- Come on! Did you really think I'd leave out the 6-time champ? He has 3 wins this year and 8 top 5's. Sure he hit a rough patch about for about a month, but he's rolling into the Chase with 4 straight top 10's. His weakness? He really doesn't have one through the first 9 races. Ok, he crashed on lap 11 and finished 42nd last time at New Hampshire, but before that he finished in the top 10 in 15 of 17 races there. I'm going to go out and say that Jimmie wins a race to advance in each round.
So who is the top dog at Homestead? None of those 4 drivers have ever won there. It's actually one of Busch and Earnhardt's WORST tracks. Kevin Harvick, however, has an avg. finish of 8.1, higher than any other track on the circuit. Jimmie has finished 2nd at Homestead twice, but 25th or worse 4 times. Harvick has 11 top 10's in 13 starts, including two 2nd place finishes, and has never finished worse than 20th. In Jr.'s first 11 starts at Homestead he never finished better than 13th, but his last 3 finishes were 11th, 10th, and 3rd. Busch only has 3 top 10's in 9 starts, but has back to back top 10's in his last 2 starts, including a career best 4th in 2012.
I don't think any of those drivers will win the race, but I do think it will be a tight battle with the champion finishing somewhere around 5th. And that winner will be.......................................
This has been Jr.'s best shot at a championship and with Steve Letarte on the way out of the pit box and into the TV booth, they will be fighting extra hard to win it all. Hopefully I don't jinx him.
We'll talk again in 10 weeks with our annual Year in Review! Until then, Happy Racin'!
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